Team USA Piling Up Medals, French Swimmer has a Shot at 4th Gold

In today’s newsletter…

PARIS — As of this morning, Team USA had the most medals at the 2024 Olympics, and at least so far they’re doing it more with depth than unexpected wins. The United States has the most silvers and bronzes, but China’s 13 golds lead the way. The U.S. and Great Britain are tied for second with nine. France, Japan and Australia have each won eight competitions, and the host nation’s 30 medals have them in second place overall, 11 behind the U.S.

At the Tokyo Games, Americans won 113 medals, 24 more than second-place China — though they squeaked by with a 39 to 38 advantage in golds. Team USA expects to rack up medals in track and field and should win two golds in basketball, so while they’re likely to end up with a wide margin in the medal count it could be another close race for most wins.

Twenty-two year old French swimmer Léon Marchand has more gold medals than all but nine countries and has quickly become a national sensation with three gold medals in three events. He currently has the most golds of any athlete (along with Australian swimmer Mollie O'Callaghan), set Olympic records in all three of his races, and won the 200-meter butterfly and the 200 breaststroke just two hours apart on Wednesday night. Marchand, an NCAA champion at Arizona State, is coached by Bob Bowman and is already drawing comparisons to Bowman’s greatest protege, Michael Phelps.

French television now builds up Marchand’s races like a presidential address. The crowd at Paris La Défense Arena works themselves into a frenzy any time a race features a French swimmer, but the chants of Lé-on! Lé-on! Lé-on! have been the loudest for any athlete at any venue at these Games. He has a chance for his fourth gold later today when he competes in the 200 individual medley. Only about 17,000 fans will get to watch in person, but millions of televisions across France will be tuned in to watch their gold-plated superstar compete for his fourth Olympic win.

Abe

Javier Assad under 4.5 Ks (-112 at FanDuel)
Javier Assad ranks in the seventh percentile in whiff rate (18.9%), the ninth percentile in chase rate (23.7%) and the 38th percentile in strikeout rate (21.0%) this season, and he’s been especially struggling to force swings and misses recently. The Cubs right-hander has recorded only seven strikeouts in his last 16.0 innings of work. He also has just an 18.6% K rate in his career against current Cardinals hitters.

Nationals vs. Brewers over 9 runs (-115 at FanDuel)
The forecast at Nationals Park looks ideal for an offensive shootout, as it’s going to be scorching hot and humid with the wind projected to blow straight out to center field during the game. Frankie Montas has given up 16 earned runs in his last three starts, including a season-high seven against the Nats two weeks ago. On the other side, current Washington hitters are batting .317 with a .435 xwOBA and a .617 xSLG against Jake Irvin. 

Luis Ortiz over 5.5 hits allowed (+115 at DraftKings)
Luis Ortiz has been fantastic since joining Pittsburgh’s starting rotation. The right-hander has given up only 23 hits and six earned runs in his last 31.2 innings of work, but most of that success has come from pitching to contact and forcing ground balls. That isn’t a great strategy for the Diamondbacks, who have the highest batting average (.329) and the fourth-highest BABIP (.322) in MLB over the last 10 days.

Austin Gomber over 3.5 Ks (+112 at FanDuel)
It makes sense why this line is so low. Not only have the Padres been excellent at avoiding strikeouts against left-handers this year, but current San Diego hitters have a minuscule 7.5% K rate in 134 plate appearances against Austin Gomber. Many signs point to the under here, but Gomber has racked up 16 strikeouts in his last 14.1 innings of work. He also struck out five batters in six shutout innings in his last start against the Padres. 

Paul Goldschmidt + Willy Adames to record a hit parlay (+117 at FanDuel)
Paul Goldschmidt is batting .393 with a 1.200 OPS over the last week. The Cardinals slugger has recorded at least one hit in six of his last eight games, and he’s 3-9 (.333) with two home runs against Javier Assad. Willy Adames isn’t seeing the ball as well as Goldy, but he’s 4-7 (.571) in his career against Irvin. 

Heliot Ramos to hit a home run (+330 at DraftKings)
This is a matchup made in heaven for Heliot Ramos. The Giants outfielder is batting .426 and slugging a ridiculous .868 against left-handed pitching this season, and he has a 10.3% home run rate against southpaws. For reference, Aaron Judge’s home run rate this year is 10.1%, and he’s typically priced at around +180 to go yard. Reds lefty Andrew Abbott has surrendered 20 homers this season and has one of the highest fastball rates (54.6%) in the league.

With my first official MLB trade deadline passing, of course I wanted to focus on the hot topics coming off of the crucial moves that were made as we head into the final stretch of the season. But it’s important to me to try and provide a unique angle that can spark a conversation that not everyone’s talking about or highlighting.

After hanging out with some MLB Network colleagues on Tuesday as we all were covering and watching the deadline closely, I got to talking with my good friend Taylor McGregor, who in addition to MLB Network is the Cubs Host/Reporter. While tossing around ideas of what’s not being talked about enough, we got on the topic of “most impactful players.” I thought this was an especially fitting topic to dive into coming off of a deadline where a lot of really big names were left on the board — like Garrett Crochet, Vladdy Guerro Jr., Blake Snell, among others.

Click here to continue reading Abby’s column on our website

Men's Soccer: France over Argentina in Regulation (+115 at DraftKings)
To no one's surprise, the Frenchmen are blazing a storybook path in Paris, leaving the group stage with a perfect nine points and three straight wins. If handicapping were that simple, the French would be an obvious pick, but more stands in the way of their opponent. The Argentinians are fortunate to have drawn a softer schedule, two-straight wins versus Iraq and Ukraine, but an early loss to Morocco draws questions to how formidable the 2024 version is. The French will have the backing of a hostile, home crowd, and while everyone's scored on Argentina, not one offense has on France. This shouldn't be + money.

Men's Basketball: Germany vs. France under 162 (-108 at DraftKings) 
France is in favor of the oddsmakers for two blatant reasons: Victor Wembanyama and the hometown advantage. The reality is, the Frenchmen are lucky to have escaped group play, benefitting from a miraculous 4-point play with 10 seconds left to force OT against Japan. The Japanese nearly won, but it left much to be desired from a French defense that many thought would be the class of the Olympics. We like the French to respond, and Germany has held its opponents to 76 and 73 points. This number is equivalent to a 200 point total in an NBA game and that's too high considering the circumstances.

Saturday

Men's Basketball: USA/Puerto Rico over 188 (-106 at FanDuel)
The NBA all-stars dished out 110 and 103 in group play, and against very competitive foes. The Serbians and Sudanese came armed with size and a physical style, but ultimately the depth and raw shooting talent of USA's roster was too much to hold down. Consequently, USA's game totals shot up from 185.5 against Serbia to 192.5 against South Sudan. Both hit the over. All trends eventually die, but we're not sure why the number dropped for this matchup. The Americans are 33-point favorites and could win without playing defense. Meanwhile, the underdog is small (only three players are 6'8 or over) but they run fast and they're dying to win. This one could reach 200.

Loopy Godinez to win (+106 at FanDuel)
Mackenzie Dern joined UFC with a lot of hype, but stiffer competition has resulted in a constant humbling for the now-31 year old. On the one hand, it's now or never and she's a tenured UFC veteran, with more big-fight experience than her opponent. On the other hand, Loopy Godinez is simply a bad matchup for Dern. Dern is known for her grappling expertise, but Loopy is a crafty and dangerous submission artist who welcomes the mat. Godinez is also a highly-technical striker, tactical in her choices, while Dern has deservedly taken on criticism for her wild style of defenseless brawling. This value is too good on a fighter who's only getting better.

Tony Ferguson to win (+460 at BetOnline)
Even at 40, Tony Ferguson is a big UFC draw, a legend because of his unconventional style and tenure of bloody wars. He went 7 years without a loss (2013-2019), but his older stint has been riddled with injury and mental setbacks, resulting in seven straight losses. To his credit, he lost versus some of the biggest names in the UFC, but "El Cucuy's" shine isn't what it once was. Still, it's clear he wants a positive ending to his career and UFC is giving him an opponent in Michael Chiesa who, while he's tough as nails, can be recklessly aggressive. Ferguson is worth watching.

Umar Nurmagomedov by submission (+300 on Fanduel)
Cory "Sandman" Sandhagen is a self-admitted dork who studies MMA like it's a priestly vocation. The 32 year old is extremely hard to reach in the octagon, famous for his constant movement and elusive tactics. Seven out of 17 victories have come by way of decision for that reason; he picks his opponents apart. But Umar Nurmagomedov is a different beast. A fighting style that completely clashes with Sandhagen, Umar is an undefeated (17-0) bowling ball that applies constant pressure on his foes, an approach eerily similar to his cousin, Khabib Nurmagomedov. We've seen Sandhagen get tapped out by a championship level submission artist before (Aljamain Sterling); why not again?