American Wins in Track + Olympics Basketball Quarterfinals Begin

In today’s newsletter…

PARIS — Leading up to the Olympics, Noah Lyles sounded like he could be the first American in 20 years to win the gold in the men’s 100-meter dash, but he wasn’t necessarily racing like it. A (relatively) slow starter, Lyles came in second in his heat on Saturday and was behind 11 sprinters across all eight heats. In fact, he wouldn’t have even automatically qualified for the semifinal if he was in teammate Fred Kerley’s heat. The 27 year old looked better in the semifinal, but still finished second in his heat and third overall.

Lyles had to set a personal best to win, which put him five-thousandths of a second ahead of Jamaica’s Kishane Thompson — the favorite coming onto Paris. No one in the raucous 80,000-person crowd at Stade de France had any idea who won for at least a minute, and the NBC commentary crew even initially called the race for Thompson.

Lyles has historically been a better 200-meter runner (he won the bronze medal at the Tokyo Olympics), so there could be more gold to come for him in these Games.

Abe

Astros moneyline (-120 at FanDuel)
The Astros have outplayed the Rangers overall since June and remain in the thick of the division race, trailing the first-place Mariners by a single game. Hunter Brown takes the hill for the Astros, who are 3-1 in his last four starts. Each of those three wins came against division foes. Additionally, the Rangers bat .210/.295/.334 against power pitchers. Houston has enjoyed success against left-handers, including Andrew Heaney, against whom they’ve scored 10 earned runs in 12.1 innings.

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (+100 at DraftKings)
There’s a lot to like about Alvarez in this spot from both macro and micro perspectives. He’s batting .354/.415/.563 over the last 15 days and owns a 1.002 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Alvarez has enjoyed success against Rangers southpaw Andrew Heaney in particular, batting 11 for 21 (.524) against him with a homer and double.

Guardians +1.5 (-154 at FanDuel)
The pitching matchup favors the Diamondbacks on paper, though it’s worth noting Arizona’s Zac Gallen is more hittable on the road. The Guardians are among the game’s best home teams, so we’re naturally interested in their home underdog odds. They’re 6-4 over their last 10 despite losing two in a row, and they’re scoring 6.3 runs per game over their last seven contests. Finally, the Guardians have won each of Allen’s last three home starts, so we’re willing to bet them keeping this one close against the snakes.

White Sox under 3.5 runs (-135 at DraftKings)
The White Sox enter tonight’s contest with a 20-game losing streak and a record that is seven games worse on the road. Oakland southpaw J.P. Sears is far from dominant on paper, but the White Sox have a .649 OPS against left-handers and a .697 OPS against “finesse” pitchers. Night games in Oakland present one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in the league, so in theory, it’s not a situation where viewers should expect a diminished White Sox lineup to put together the at-bats necessary to put together crooked numbers.

Red Sox under 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-145 at DraftKings)
Brady Singer takes the hill for the Royals, who are 7-3 over their last 10 and among the best home teams in the league at 36-22. Singer enters this evening’s contest with favorable home splits as well, including a 2.20 ERA and .195 BAA. He struggled in Boston against the Red Sox, but has only surrendered three earned runs across his last three starts (21 innings) and only allowed more than three runs in one of his last eight starts.

Men's Soccer: Egypt under 0.5 goals (-125 at DraftKings)
The Egyptians are going to be fatigued entering Monday's affair against France. It took extra time (a full 120 minutes) and penalty kicks for the Egyptians to finally overcome Paraguay just two days ago, a result that catapulted today's underdog into the semifinals, but don't be fooled. The Egyptians are not on the French team's level in any category, and the host-team hasn't allowed a single concession thus far. While we love anticipating regression when it's due, we have little reason to believe Egypt will be the first to score on a dominant French resistance.

Men's Soccer: France wins and under 1.5 goals (+475 at DraftKings)
This is an example where extra research matters, as the same exact wager in a different format (France exact score 1-0) is +400 at DraftKings. Nice try, DK! In any case, this matchup has a real chance to be very sleepy. While France has yet to allow a single goal in the Olympics, the Egyptian defense has been surprisingly rigid, too. A 1-1 game went into OT against Paraguay, but before that the Egyptians allowed just one goal in three previous contests. Their 2-1 win over Spain was particularly impressive, since Spain had plenty of firepower at their disposal. We expect the better team to ride a 1-0 stalemate into a win.

Tuesday, August 6th: Men’s Basketball

Germany -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Greece somehow made it into the final-8 at the Olympics, but that doesn't mean we should expect great things. They completed the group stage with the second-worst offensive rating among all teams, averaging under 78 points per game, and their three-point shooting percentage is a lowly 30.3%. The Germans have shown fantastic chemistry and a balanced attack, winners of three straight games by double-digits. The Greeks continue to look like a one-man act behind Giannis Antetokounmpo. Deutschland should have little issue pulling away.

Serbia -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel) 
No men's basketball team has proceeded quieter than the Serbians, and we're sure they'd prefer to keep it that way. After an impressive 11-point win against South Sudan, a team that played far beyond what most bettors predicted, the Serbians continue to build momentum. Two straight wins have come as a product of team basketball, with NBA-MVP Nikola Jokic always contributing but never needing to dominate as their sole star. Bogdan Bogdanovic and others present a balanced attack, and we just don't see the Boomers, who lack size and nearly let the struggling Greeks sneak a win, keeping up.

Canada vs. France over 163.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
This total is based on a slow, tall French team, but that doesn't mean it's sharp. The Frenchmen have struggled to score consistently (80 ppg), but when they've faced a smaller, fast team (see their contest vs. Japan), they follow suit. The Canadians seem to keep playing with their food, winners of three straight but never fully dominating or separating themselves from less-talented foes for all four quarters. Now that it's the quarterfinals, we expect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a star-studded cast of NBA guards to increase their intensity and tempo, which means this number is far too low.

Joel Embiid over 10.5 points (+110 at DraftKings)
Joel Embiid has seen his fair share of criticism at the Olympics. The big man was eligible to play for France or Cameroon but chose to play for Team USA, a decision that the French crowd hasn't taken lightly. But it's his questionable performances (or lack thereof) that have had fans scratching their heads. Finally, Embiid put up 15 points against Puerto Rico after sitting out previously vs. South Sudan and only scoring four points against Serbia. Tuesday marks another opportunity to get the former NBA MVP going, something coach Steve Kerr has remarked as essential for their ultimate success. If he plays over 15 minutes, this over becomes extremely likely.

Jeff McNeil over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-110 at DraftKings)
After a rough start to the season, Jeff McNeil is finally starting to turn it on. The Mets second baseman is batting .382 with a 1.142 OPS and a 216 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. He also leads New York in runs (11) and ranks third in RBIs (nine) in that span. Cardinals starter Andre Pallante has been much worse at home than he’s been away from Busch Stadium this year. 

Giants team total over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-120 at DraftKings)
Happy fade Patrick Corbin Day to all who celebrate. The Nationals left-hander has been struggling all year, as he ranks in the first percentile in pitching run value (-24) and xBA (.310), the third percentile in xERA (5.84) and the fourth percentile in hard-hit rate (47.0%). He’s also coming off a dreadful start against the Diamondbacks, giving up 13 hits and 10 earned runs. The Giants have a great track record against Corbin, and they’ll look to jump on him early. 

Kyle Hendricks over 1.5 walks allowed (-110 at DraftKings)
Kyle Hendricks doesn’t normally walk a ton of batters. The Cubs starter ranks in the 65th percentile in walk rate (7.0%) this season, and he’s gone under this line in 12 of his 20 starts. In July, though, Hendricks recorded two or more walks in three of his five starts. He also has a career 11.4% walk rate against current Twins hitters, and Minnesota has the highest walk rate in MLB against righties over the last two weeks (12.9%). 

Dodgers vs. Phillies under 5.5 runs first 7 innings (+105 at DraftKings)
If you like pitchers’ duels, this is the game for you. Tyler Glasnow has been leaking a bit of oil lately, but he’s dominated this matchup in the past. Current Phillies hitters are batting just .176 against Glasnow with a .270 xwOBA and a .316 xSLG. On the other side, current Dodgers hitters have a .208 xBA, a .250 xwOBA and a .319 xSLG in 116 plate appearances against Aaron Nola. 

Will Smith under 0.5 hits (+165 at DraftKings)
Will Smith isn’t seeing the ball well right now. The Dodgers catcher is batting just .086 with a .306 OPS over the last 15 days, and this isn’t a great matchup for him. In 17 career at-bats against Nola, Smith is batting only .118 with five strikeouts. 

Mark Canha + Max Kepler to record a hit parlay (-109 at DraftKings)
We already detailed why we love fading Corbin, and Mark Canha has a great history against the southpaw. In 26 career at-bats against Corbin, Canha is batting .462 and slugging .615. As for Max Kepler, he’s batting .333 with a 1.042 OPS over the last week, and Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks ranks in the fourth percentile in xBA (.286) this season. 

Michael Conforto to hit a home run (+450 at FanDuel)
We don’t mean to pile on Corbin, but this couldn’t be a better setup for a home run prop. It’s going to be scorching hot at Nationals Park with the wind projected to blow straight out to center field, making this matchup the most dinger-friendly on the slate. Michael Conforto is also batting .353 and slugging .853 with five home runs in his career against Corbin.