Can Jokic Keep Serbia Close Against Team USA in Olympics Semifinal?

In today’s newsletter…

There are just five more days of the Paris Olympics but plenty of medals still up for grabs. The gymnastics competition is done, and the venue has been transformed overnight into a basketball arena as teams move from Lille to Paris for the knockout portion of the tournament. Swimming is also finished, but you can replace that with beach volleyball and soccer, which have both moved to the elimination rounds. And there’s still plenty of action to go in track and field.

There are 14 gold medals up for grabs today, including in the men’s 400-meter final, women’s pole vault, skateboarding, cycling, wrestling, boxing, sport climbing, sailing and the marathon race walk. The U.S. women’s team faces Nigeria in the basketball quarterfinal at 3:30pm ET and women’s golf is also underway. Enjoy these Games while you can!

Nationals vs. Padres both teams to score 2+ runs in the first 5 innings (+200 at DraftKings)
It seems foolish to fade Blake Snell right now, as the Padres left-hander is coming off a no-hitter and has given up only two earned runs in his last 33.0 innings of work. He has to come back to earth at some point, and the Nationals lead the league in batting average (.373), OPS (1.029) and wRC+ (187) against southpaws over the last two weeks. On the other side, Jake Irvin has surrendered 20 earned runs in his last 28.0 innings. 

Chris Sale over 1.5 walks allowed (-130 at DraftKings)
Sale has gone over this line in six of his last eight starts, including his most recent appearance against the Brewers when he allowed three walks. The left-hander is so good at getting batters to chase pitches out of the zone, but Milwaukee doesn’t help those pitchers out. The Brewers have the second-lowest chase rate, swing rate and first-pitch swing rate in MLB this season. 

Manny Machado over 1.5 total bases (+105 at DraftKings)
Manny Machado went 0-5 Tuesday night, but this is a great spot for a bounce-back performance at the plate. Before that hitless game, the Padres third baseman was on a hot streak in which he went 13-28 (.464). Now he gets to face off against Pirates lefty Marco Gonzales, who’s giving up a .307 xBA and a 10.2% barrel rate. Machado is 4-8 against Gonzales in his career with two doubles. 

Valente Bellozo under 4.5 hits allowed (-130 at DraftKings)
Valente Bellozo has a 4.20 ERA through three starts this season, but he’s been a bit unlucky on the mound. The Marlins right-hander has a 0.93 WHIP, a.209 xBA and a 3.15 xERA, so he’s pitching much better than his ERA suggests. Bellozo also doesn’t go deep in games, as he’s averaging just 78.7 pitches per start.

Phillies team total over 4.5 runs (+114 at DraftKings)
The Phillies have gone through some cold offensive stretches since the All-Star break, but they’ve scored five or more runs in five of their last seven games. Dodgers starter Gavin Stone has surrendered at least seven hits and four earned runs in four of his last five starts, and he’s struggled mightily against this lineup. In 42 combined plate appearances against Stone, current Phillies hitters are batting .410 with a .441 wOBA. 

Brendan Rodgers + Austin Riley to record a hit parlay (-114 at FanDuel)
Brendan Rodgers is on fire against right-handed pitching. He’s batting .571 and slugging 1.000 against righties over the last week, and Mets starter Pete Blackburn ranks in the 18th percentile in xBA. As for Austin Riley, he’s batting .306 with two home runs and three doubles over the last 15 days. He’s also 5-13 (.385) with a home run in his career against Brewers starter Freddy Peralta

Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+440 at FanDuel)
Since Bryce Harper went five straight games without recording a hit, the Phillies star is 7-21 (.333) with a home run. He’s starting to see the ball better and make hard contact again, and this is a great matchup for a dinger. Stone has given up seven home runs in his last five starts, including four homers in his last two. Harper went 2-2 against the right-hander with a double and a walk earlier this year.

Thursday, August 8th

Men's Basketball: Germany -4.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
The Germans continued their domination at the Olympics, handing Greece a 13-point loss and eliminating Giannis Antetokounmpo's team from medal contention. After a slow start in the 1st quarter, the Germans out-scored the Greeks 65-42, displaying stifling defense and their typical high-chemistry output on offense. France surprised the world by beating Canada, holding onto a lead for all four quarters behind the first-class defense of Victor Wembayama and others. It was a seminal moment for the Frenchmen, but we're getting a cheap line on the better team and that's something we can't ignore.

Men's Basketball: Serbia wins 1st Quarter, USA wins Game (+420 at FanDuel)
The Serbians tied Team USA, 28-28, in the first quarter of their first exhibition game, and held a lead before losing the first quarter of their second meeting. Third time's a charm, right? Nikola Jokic and the Serbians seem to only be getting better, a product of more time together and a group that's sound on both sides of the ball. Team USA's talent will likely be too much for the Serbians in the end, but Jokic is a dominant first quarter player. He scored 6 points, snagged 3 offensive rebounds and provided 2 assists in the first 8 minutes versus Puerto Rico, and we expect him to continue adding more early so his team has a chance.

Men's Basketball: Nikola Jokic over 32.5 points + rebounds (-118 at FanDuel)
As massive underdogs, it would be foolish to expect the Serbians to beat Team USA, but that doesn't mean Nikola Jokic can't get his. The 3-time MVP was the main ingredient in Serbia's outrageous 24-point comeback win against Australia on Tuesday, contributing 21 points and 14 rebounds. The big-man went into takeover mode against a team that just didn't have the size or skill to stop him. While we know Team USA has stalwart defenders, Jokic has proved time and time again how impossible he is to limit in a big-game atmosphere in the NBA. We expect the same result in this semifinal.

Rangers +0.5 first 5 innings (-140 at DraftKings)
The Rangers and Astros have both struggled in the run-scoring department since the All-Star break. The Astros’ difficulties in particular make us feel a little bit better about the usually hittable Jose Urena taking the hill for the Rangers. As long as Urena can avoid an implosion, the Rangers should be able to do enough against Yusei Kikuchi — they tagged Kikuchi for five earned runs in 4.2 innings on July 26 and hit lefties better overall — to cover over the first five frames.

Athletics -1.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
We’re dipping into the emotional side of things with this pick after the White Sox snapped a 21-game skid last night. One way or another, you have to imagine the emotional high the White Sox players experienced. And now they have to turn around and try to do it again in a day game. The A’s, meanwhile, have won four of Joey Estes’ last six starts and have been respectable at the dish and on the mound since the break. 

Yankees -1.5 first 5 innings — Game 1 (+105 at DraftKings)
The Yankees are hitting the ball again, averaging 7.7 runs per game over their last nine contests, a span in which they finished 7-2 and won three series — including a sweep of the NL-best Phillies. Starter Luis Gil is in good form as well, and he’ll toe the rubber against an Angels team that has a .596 OPS against power pitchers, and a -46 run differential on the road.

Guardians +0.5 first 5 innings — Game 2 (-132 at FanDuel)
Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez may have dominated the Guardians in 2023 (28.2 IP, 0.63 ERA, .160 BAA), but we like the home team in this spot nonetheless. Rodriguez is making his first big league start of the season after working his way back from shoulder issues. The Guardians have a .755 OPS against lefties, and if Rodriguez is slowed by any rust or diminished stuff, they’ll be able to scratch across the runs necessary to cover early.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays over 9.5 runs (+100 at Caesars)
The Orioles have been giving up runs since the break, but they’ve been scoring as well. We can forgive them for going quiet against veteran Chris Bassitt, who can befuddle opponents from time to time. Baltimore will have better luck against Toronto starter Bowden Francis — in theory at least — who they have tagged for four home runs and seven earned runs in nine innings. The O’s have gone over 9.5 in five of six and the Blue Jays in three of five.

Red Sox vs. Royals under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-120 at DraftKings)
The Red Sox are hot again, winning six of eight, including four of five on their current road trip. We like them to continue playing well, but we’re not going to pick them to sweep in this spot in deference to the Royals’ home success. Instead, we’re looking at Kutter Crawford and Cole Ragans delivering a competitive contest that challenges both lineups to scratch across runs.

Tigers moneyline (+115 at Caesars)
Tarik Skubal vs. George Kirby is arguably the top pitching matchup on Wednesday’s slate, and there’s plenty of reason to expect a low-scoring pitchers’ duel. The Tigers managed to scratch across four runs in a 4-2 victory to take the series opener. They have a chance to steal another one behind ace Skubal, who owned a 2.03 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and .182 BAA in six starts prior to stumbling against the Royals. He’ll take aim at one of MLB’s worst home offenses in one of MLB’s most pitcher-friendly environments.

Naomi Osaka wins 2-1 (+280 at FanDuel)
Casual fans might find it hard to understand why Naomi Osaka is the chalk in this high-level showdown on Wednesday, but it's a fairly simple evaluation. Ons Jabeur, although capable of playing elite tennis and famously known for her oh-so-close Grand Slam fortunes, just isn't very adept on hard courts. The Tunisian is just 2-6 this year, winning only 28.8% of her return games. On the other side, Osaka does her best work on the same surface, carrying a lifelong winning percentage of 66%. Jabeur's form hasn't been horrible, though, and Osaka has struggled all summer. We're tracking a long match and giving an environmental edge to Osaka.

Ashlyn Krueger wins 2-0 (+240 at DraftKings)
Ashlyn Kreuger's stock is growing in women's tennis. The 20 year old is now ranked 64th in the WTA, just three spots behind her foe on Wednesday. The 6'1" power-hitter had some hiccups recently, but she's also had tough draws. Facing top-6 player Jessica Pegula was no easy task after qualifiers at Wimbledon, and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is just a bad matchup for the under-experienced American. At her best, Elisabetta Cocciaretto is a very good player, but the last 12 months she's only won 49.7% of her games on hard courts, a surface Kreuger is far more accustomed to. The value lies on the pooch, and it's a short-line for a reason. We're looking at the sweep for great value.

Chris Olave 12+ TDs in the 2024 Season (+1300 at DraftKings)
Reports at camp are soaring over Chris Olave, the third-year wide receiver who hopes to finally have his breakout season in 2024. While Olave was reportedly adding five pounds of muscle this offseason, the Saints were dropping his surrounding cast members, releasing former WR1 Michael Thomas and TE Jeremy Graham. Now with a skeleton crew on their depth-chart, 40-year-old Klint Kubiak joins in his first year as Saints offensive coordinator after successful stints with the 49ers and Broncos. His fast-paced, short-passing schemes should catalyze an offense that needs simpler structure, and Olave is the most obvious skill-player to benefit.