Mariners Need Long Start from Bryan Woo + WNBA is Back

In today’s newsletter…

Rockies +0.5 first 5 innings (+106 at FanDuel)
Are we sure the Diamondbacks should be favored by this much with Jordan Montgomery on the mound? The left-hander has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year, as he ranks in the first percentile in pitching run value (-19), the third percentile in xBA (.296) and the sixth percentile in xERA (5.42). Rockies starter Tanner Gordon struggled in his first three starts of the season, but he’s given up only seven hits and three earned runs in 11.0 innings since. 

Willson Contreras over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-140 at DraftKings)
Willson Contreras is batting .333 with a team-leading five runs scored and five RBIs over the last week. He’s recorded at least one hit in five of his last six games, and this is a great matchup on deck. Reds starter Emilio Pagan throws his 4-seam fastball 57.2% of the time, while Contreras is batting .302 and slugging .448 with a 59.3% hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this season. 

Phillies team total under 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-120 at DraftKings)
This Phillies lineup is lost at the plate right now. Since the start of August, Philadelphia is batting just .225 with a .659 OPS and an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera has struggled at times this season, but he’s pitching the best he has all year. The righty has surrendered only seven hits and no runs over his last two starts while striking out 12. 

David Peterson under 4.5 hits allowed (+125 at DraftKings)
David Peterson has been pitching well for the Mets of late, giving up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. The left-hander forces a ton of ground balls, making this a great matchup for him. The Athletics have the third-highest ground-ball rate against lefties this month (51.6%), and they’re batting just .175 with a .570 OPS against southpaws in that span. 

Robbie Ray 8+ strikeouts (+132 at FanDuel)
Since making his season debut last month, Robbie Ray has racked up 28 strikeouts in 20.1 innings of work. He struck out at least eight batters twice in four starts and recorded seven Ks in another appearance, giving him an elite 33.3% K rate. Now he gets to face the Atlanta Braves, who have the highest strikeout rate against lefties over the last month (34.2%). You can get creative with some alt lines here. 

Mookie Betts + Brendan Rodgers to record a hit parlay (-112 at FanDuel)
Welcome back, Mookie! Betts returned to the lineup on Monday and didn’t miss a beat, going 4-9 with a home run and three RBIs through two games. He’s 5-11 (.455) in his career against Frankie Montas, so he should keep it rolling. As for Brendan Rodgers, he’s batting .400 with a 1.096 OPS over the last 15 days and has a .319 batting average against southpaws this year. 

Tyler Fitzgerald to hit a home run (+600 at FanDuel)
Since moving to the starting rotation, Braves right-hander Grant Holmes has given up nine earned runs and three homers in 14.2 innings of work. It’s going to be tough for him to keep the ball in the yard on Wednesday night with the wind protected to blow strongly out to center field with gusts up to 30 mph. Tyler Fitzgerald can take advantage of this friendly matchup, as he’s slugging .758 with 11 home runs over his last 24 games. 

Leylah Fernandez wins 2-1 (+260 at DraftKings)
Leylah Fernandez was having a great year leading up to the French Open, constantly challenging top players and ascending highest in June, where she competed in the final at Eastbourne. But grass and clay-court seasons don't last forever. Since Eastbourne, she's just 2-2, and she hasn't looked as comfortable on hard surfaces. Fortunately, we're getting great value on Leylah because of it. Yue Yuan isn't considered a top player in singles, but she saw some really nice success earlier this year on hard courts (she won the ATX Open in late February). We expect her to fight, with the better player prevailing. 

Emma Navarro wins 2-1 (+285 at DraftKings)
Mirra Andreeva's stock rose at the French Open, where she made it all the way to the semifinals against Jasmine Paolini. The 17 year old is a natural on any surface, but her lack of experience and subpar movement can leave her behind the curve against elite competitors. Emma Navarro hasn't looked as good since her phenomenal run at Wimbledon. The 23-year old trudged through the Canadian Open, eventually booted by Amanda Animosova, and her loss to Qinwen Zhang at the Olympics left a lot of scratching heads. Emma's form needs work right now, but we're still tracking her to win in what we project to be a long battle.

Caroline Wozniacki wins 2-1 (+285 at DraftKings)
Former Australian Open winner Carolina Wozniacki has had an up and down year. As much should be expected for a woman who most thought would never return to tennis, but at least her "final run" has been entertaining and inspiring, in moments. Anhelina Kalinina is the definition of a gatekeeper in the WTA right now. The 27-year-old Ukrainian has been very average for the most part, frequently losing to above-average players while finding success early in tournaments. Still she's absolutely good enough to beat Wozniacki, but we'll look for the Dane finishing 2024 strong. 

Royals vs. Twins under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-138 at FanDuel)
The Royals will call on Cole Ragans, who is pitching well of late, compiling a 3.11 ERA over his last six turns (37.2 IP). He has favorable splits on his side as well. Ragans enters the day with a 2.86 ERA on the road and 2.44 ERA in day games. We’re also acknowledging the prospect of the Twins’ bats slowing down a bit in the early start.

Rangers vs. Red Sox under 9.5 runs (-118 at DraftKings)
The Red Sox have lost each of Tanner Houck’s last four starts, but the most recent defeat certainly wasn’t on him. We like for him to build on the momentum of his last outing (6 IP, 1 ER) and keep the Rangers’ recently quiet bats under control. Meanwhile, Dane Dunning may not bring an impressive stat line into the matchup, but the Red Sox score less at home than on the road. 

Dean Kremer under 4.5 strikeouts (-130 at FanDuel)
Length has been an issue for Dean Kremer — he’s failed to make it beyond the fifth inning in six of his last eight starts. While he doesn’t necessarily need length to reach five punchouts, it would certainly help against a stingy Nationals team that is only striking out at an 18% clip since the All-Star break. It’s also worth considering Kremer’s home splits. He has a 5.10 ERA and .264 BAA at Camden Yards. 

Bryan Woo over 17.5 outs recorded (-115 at DraftKings)
The Mariners used five total pitchers after starter George Kirby lasted only 3.2 innings in a 15-1 defeat at the Tigers. They’ll aim for payback behind starter Bryan Woo, who will be tasked with giving the Mariners length. Woo totaled 13.2 innings across his last two starts, putting a stretch of shorter outings across June and July further in the rearview. The Tigers, meanwhile, were only averaging 3.5 runs per game in the second half prior to last night’s eruption.

Guardians moneyline (-132 at FanDuel)
The Guardians are 4-6 over their last 10, but appear to be righting the ship as they’ve won four straight. They’re 37-20 with a plus-41 run differential at home, and they’ve averaged nearly 4.8 runs per game since the beginning of August. They’ll need to put runs up against the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon, whose 4.50 road ERA is nearly two runs higher than his home mark (2.56). 

Astros first to 3 runs (-114 at FanDuel)
The Astros’ recent success has been shouldered by their pitching, and they enter play tonight with the lowest starters’ ERA (2.52) in August. The Rays, meanwhile, have the 28th-ranked ERA (6.00) over that span. Ronel Blanco is tasked with keeping the trend rolling, and appears to be in form to do so. He struggled in two outings to close July, but overall, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last seven starts.

White Sox +1.5 (+132 at FanDuel)
The Yankees bats have been relatively quiet since arriving in Chicago. They scored six runs across two games despite three homers from Juan Soto. If they’re not going to fire on all cylinders at the dish, it’s going to put pressure on rookie Will Warren, who enters his third big league start with an 11.17 ERA in 9.2 innings. Even the dreadful White Sox may be able to scratch across enough runs to keep things close.

Thursday: Washington Mystics +8.5 (Consensus -110)
This line has been moving down and we agree with the adjustment. The Washington Mystics are not a premiere team in the W, but they finished the pre-break segment averaging 84 ppg in their last 12 contests. Their offense is good. The Minnesota Lynx rely on defense and the superstar play of Napheesa Collier, who just finished helping Team USA win gold, albeit by a mere 1 point over France, last week. Collier's lack of rest and a formidable offensive challenge are enough reasons for us to look at the underdog, even if they open on the road.

Thursday: LA Sparks +11.5 (-110 at Bovada)
We'll fade another team implicated by the Olympics. A long flight back from Paris isn't easy, and we also have to assume many of the players were partying hard and lacking rest, especially with all the post-Olympics media spots. Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart were featured starters, too. Meanwhile, the Sparks had exactly zero women on Team USA. While they're far from New York's level in most areas, they have plenty of motivation to play David in this battle. Besides, Goliath hasn't dominated LA this season (the Sparks won 3/8 quarters, and New York only won 2 quarters by more than 5 points). 

Thursday: Patriots -2.5 (-106 at Bookmaker)
There's little proof that the Eagles care about winning at all in the preseason, and why should they? Last year's NFC Champion 49ers are incurring one injury after another, while Philadelphia's talent-stacked roster is poised for bigger results after a quick out in last year's Wildcard round. Health is their primary concern, and coach Nick Sirianni’s 2-6 preseason record only gives us more reason to look New England's way. The Patriots have roster battles all over, including at QB and WR, and a new coach with much to prove. The value lies with a short home favorite.