NFL Preseason Opportunities + Return of Premier League

In today’s newsletter…

The Premier League kicks off today with Manchester City shooting for its fifth championship in a row and seventh in eight seasons. Leicester City and Southampton are back after spending a season in the Championship, while Ipswich Town earned promotion to the top league for the first time in 22 years. Five clubs will start the campaign with new coaches: Liverpool (Arne Slot), Chelsea (Enzo Maresca), Southampton (Russell Martin), Brighton (Fabian Hurzeler) and Ipswich (Kieran McKenna).

Sam Farley is back this season to give his Premier League analysis each Friday from across the pond. For today, I also wanted to point out some futures that FanDuel is currently running with:

Switching to American football, we’ve got some predictions coming to you next week: College football on Monday and the NFL on Wednesday. All of our experts have made conference champion and College Football Playoff picks, along with how they think the upcoming NFL season will turn out.

Alec Bohm over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-110 at DraftKings)
Alec Bohm has been crushing left-handed pitching of late. The Phillies third baseman is batting .500 and slugging 1.063 with a ridiculous 66.7% hard-hit rate against southpaws this month, and now he gets to face one of the worst lefties in MLB in Patrick Corbin. In 25 career at-bats against Corbin, Bohm is batting .360 and slugging .720 with two home runs and three doubles. 

Phillies team total over 5.5 runs (-105 at DraftKings)
We’re not done fading Corbin just yet. The Washington Nationals starter ranks in the first percentile in xBA (.308), the first percentile in pitching run value (-28), the third percentile in xERA (5.90) and the third percentile in hard-hit rate (47.4%). Meanwhile, the Phillies have the highest OPS (1.018) and wRC+ (181) against lefties this month, and they’re starting to get scorching hot with 22 runs in their last two games. 

Mets vs. Marlins both teams to score 2+ runs — first 5 innings (+145 at DraftKings)
This is one of the best ways to attack games with two starting pitchers you don’t trust. Marlins right-hander Roddery Munoz ranks in the first percentile in xERA (6.33) and barrel rate (13.0%), and he’s given up at least two earned runs in nine of his last 10 starts. On the other side, current Marlins hitters are batting .391 with a .423 xwOBA and a .586 xSLG against Sean Manaea. 

Jake Burger over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-115 at DraftKings)
Jake Burger is on an absolute tear at the plate, batting .365 with a 1.279 OPS over the last 15 days. He leads MLB with eight home runs and 14 runs scored in that span, and he’s cleared this line in seven of his last eight games. Burger is also 2-5 in his career against Manaea with a home run and a double. 

Reds -0.5 first 5 innings (-105 at DraftKings)
Reds starter Nick Martinez has been lights out since sliding back into the starting rotation. In two starts since moving out of the bullpen, the right-hander has surrendered only five hits and no earned runs in 12.0 innings. The Kansas City Royals lineup has been much worse on the road all season, as has Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen has given up 16 earned runs over his last five road starts. 

Freddie Freeman + Jackson Chourio to record a hit parlay (-115 at FanDuel)
This is a sparkling matchup for Freddie Freeman, as he’s 8-17 (.471) in his career against Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas with three home runs and only two strikeouts. He’s hit safely in three straight games and 10 of his last 12. As for Jackson Chourio, he’s 6-15 (.400) in his last four games. Guardians starter Gavin Williams throws a high percentage of fastballs, and Chourio has a 52.1% hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this year. 

Brendan Rodgers to hit a home run (+560 at FanDuel)
We told you about Tyler Fitzgerald at +600 to go yard in our last edition, and he put one over the wall in the first inning. Looking at a similarly priced player for Friday’s slate, Brendan Rodgers is batting .404 and slugging .660 over the last 15 days, and he’s batting .342 at home with five of his nine homers coming at Coors Field. Padres starter Matt Waldron has given up at least one home run in seven of his last eight starts.

It has begun. The fantasy football draft party planning, arguments over whether or not the preseason matters, and the belief that THIS is the year that your team is going to the Super Bowl (unless you’re from North Carolina like me and the Panthers are supposed to be your team). It’s also this time of year that we speculate and preview the season from every angle we possibly can as journalists. So it’s my turn…and I thought, hey let’s be different per usual, or at least try to be, all the while sparking up a good passionate conversation and debate. 

After covering the NFL for the first time last season (college football and NHL have consumed most of my fall/winters in the last decade), we will give this a whirl in regard to my personal thoughts (supported by factual research of course) on which team in each division has the most pressure and highest expectations weighing on them in 2024. 

Continue reading Abby’s column on Sportmoney.com.

Texans -3 (-105 at Bookmaker)
The Giants have never been darlings of the preseason, and that certainly hasn't changed under coach Brian Daboll. Daboll just earned his first ATS win in exhibition games last week, handing the Lions a 14-3 loss at home. It was a nice start for the G-Men, but means little in this contest. New York may be getting some respect since announcing that Daniel Jones, who missed almost the entire season in 2023, will see some playing time Saturday. We doubt it'll be beyond one drive. Meanwhile, Houston has some of the best depth of any NFL roster and a cadre of seasoned veteran backups at QB, and they're at home.

Pittsburgh -5.5 (-110 at Bovada)
The Pittsburgh Steelers' first showing was kind of embarrassing. Justin Fields did himself no favors by showing off more turnover troubles (two fumbles), and their first unit only produced 74 yards in the first quarter. Mike Tomlin owns an impressive 36-30-1 ATS preseason record, so we expect a better all-around performance from his program on Saturday. Buffalo, on the other hand, just suffered a devastating injury to Matt Milano on a defense that already lost many pieces this offseason. The Bills will be prioritizing health, while the home team has plenty of room to grow. Advantage: Steelers.

Dallas +6.5 (-105 at Bovada)
This spread opened at -3.5 but has moved drastically in favor of the Raiders. Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew continue to "battle" for the #1 QB spot on their depth chart, but otherwise we see little reason to support a huge home favorite in an exhibition contest. Antonio Pierce looked less than buttoned-up in their opener, flummoxing his team with strange calls throughout the game, and Vegas' best players (Maxx Crosby and Devante Adams) are unlikely to see much playing time. Plus, although Mike McCarthy's record at the margins of the preseason are bleak, he has a surprising 18-11 record in mid-preseason contests. This line is too high.

Saints moneyline (-108 at DraftKings)
Last year's NFC champions have accrued a staggering 26 injuries this summer, which includes stars like Christian McCaffrey, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner, and Talanoa Hufanga. Restoring the health of their starters and their depth pieces will be priority #1 for Kyle Shanahan, a guy that's never cared much for the preseason anyway (11-11-1 overall). The Saints first preseason game produced a combination we love heading into Week 2, since their starting offense struggled but both back-up QBs and their surrounding talent played well. With a new offense that needs testing under Klint Kubiak, give us the team with more to prove at a short number!

The Premier League returns today, but we’re avoiding Manchester United vs Fulham, which feels like a trap game, and focusing on the rest of the action over this weekend.

Ipswich vs. Liverpool draw at halftime (+190 at BetRivers)
Ipswich’s first game after a long absence from the Premier League will be a celebratory one at Portman Road. They atmosphere and the occasion will help them start strong, especially against a Liverpool team in Arne Slot’s first game in charge.

Diogo Jota to score (+160 at FanDuel)
The player that really leaps out in the goalscorer market has to be Diogo Jota. He only played 21 Premier League games last year but scored a huge 10 goals. Against one of the league’s weakest defenses, he should be able to find the back of the net, albeit in the second half.

Arsenal to win to nil (-120 at Caesars)
Nobody in the Premier League gave up fewer goals than Arsenal last season, and they’ve reinforced the defense with the signing of Riccardo Calafiori, as well as the return of Jurrien Timber from long term injury. They should get a win here and keep out a Wolves team who were woeful in front of goal last season.

Newcastle winning at halftime + Newcastle to win (+100 at Bet365)
Southampton reached the Premier League via the playoffs and had a far worse defensive record than the other two promoted teams. They gave up 63 goals in the season, and against a strong Newcastle team at St James’ Park, they’ll likely come unstuck early.

Alexander Isak to score first (+335 at BetRivers)
If there’s one player you can be confident will score on Saturday it has to be Newcastle’s Swedish striker. He scored 21 in 30 league games last year and faces a very weak defense at home.

West Ham vs Aston Villa draw (+265 at DraftKings)
The final game on Saturday is arguably the most exciting. West Ham have recruited brilliantly this summer, while Villa finished in the top four last time out. This is a really evenly matched game and there’s a great chance of the a high scoring draw.

Crystal Palace (+190 at DraftKings)
It’s hard to know exactly what we’ll see from Palace given that they sold Michael Olise to Bayern Munich and with Jean-Philippe Mateta likely to start on the bench following his return from the Olympics. That said, they were exceptional at the tail end of last season, winning four of their last five. The arrival of Daichi Kamada is an interesting one, and he’ll aid the attack.

Man City to win (-120 at FanDuel)
We saw last year that Chelsea struggled in the first half of the season to bed in all of their new signings and deal with injuries. They’ve now signed even more players and downgraded at manager with Enzo Maresca. City might be missing some players, but they should beat a disjointed Chelsea team that have looked awful in preseason.

Tottenham -1 (+165 at FanDuel)
Spurs were one of the most refreshing teams in the Premier League last season with their attacking style of play. They may be on the road, but Leicester struggled to get over the line and win the Championship last year. With a fully fit attack with James Maddison, Son Heung-Min, Dejan Kulusevski, and Dominic Solanke, Spurs should tear Leicester to shreds.

Dominic Solanke to score anytime (+137 at Bet365)
Last season Solanke bagged 19 Premier League goals for Bournemouth. He looked strong, powerful and dynamic, and now switches the South Coast for Spurs, a team who should provide a lot more chances. He should surprise people this year and score a lot of goals.

Mateusz Gamrot by decision (-125 at FanDuel)
Dan Hooker's tenure in the UFC is long and full of crazy entertaining fights, likely worthy of future Hall of Fame honors. Known for his willingness to get into bloody battles, "Hangman" has an arsenal of high-level striking, something that should grant us another epic clash against a more technical, cerebral striker like the Gamrot. The Pole's grappling advantage is too heavy to ignore, however, and although Hooker's combinations were deadly in earlier years, the underdog is an old 34 with 35 pro fights under his belt; the wear and tear shows in his lack of explosive power. Gamrot wins by using ground control and the Aussie crowd will hate it.

Steve Erceg by TKO/KO (+700 at FanDuel and DraftKings)
Australian native Steve Erceg is coming off one of the best fights of his career, even if it ended in a loss. In a five-round battle against Flyweight Champion Alexandre Pantajo, "Astro Boy" put on a striking clinic, piecing him up for three rounds and was conceivably in the driver's seat to win, but the champion turned to grappling and Erceg let it happen. Kai Kara France is a formidable fighter who was once seen as championship material, but his last few bouts created plenty of doubt that he can hang with the elite. Ergec is one of the best fighters in the world and will not make the same mistakes in this affair. We like it to end in dramatic fashion.

Israel Adesanya by TKO/KO (+310 at FanDuel)
Israel Adesanya's run as champion was one for the storybooks, resulting in eight title fight wins, including one of the most celebrated TKO victories in UFC history over Alex Pereira. At 35, "Stylebender" knows the time is now if he wants one more run. Dricus Du Plessis continues to be wildly undervalued, a true champion in every regard and a fighter who impressively marches down every opponent before out-classing his foe with incredible power and technique. If his opposition was anyone else, our analysis would stop there, but Adesanya is hell-bent on proving to the world that he's not done. The Aussie is one-of-one, and we're looking for another magical moment.