Michael King has Recorded Win in 5 of last 7 for Padres

In today’s newsletter…

The College football season kicks off on Saturday at noon ET, with No. 10 Florida State taking on Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland. There are three more games throughout the day (including SMU’s first game as a member of the ACC), with a full slate of action starting a week from Thursday.

To get you ready for the year, Sportmoney has some predictions for you. We looked at who we think is going to win the big four conferences and what the first expanded College Football Playoff could look like. Check it out on our website.

Trevor Rogers under 15.5 outs (-115 at DraftKings)
Rogers isn’t a workhorse starter who consistently reaches the sixth or seventh inning and gives the bullpen a rest. The left-hander has gone under this line in all three of his starts since joining the Orioles, and five of his last eight overall. He’s also struggled with his new team, giving up 20 hits, 12 earned runs and seven walks in 14.1 innings of work. As for the matchup, the Mets rank fifth in MLB in OPS (.810) and wRC+ (130) against southpaws this month. 

David Peterson over 2.5 walks allowed (+140 at DraftKings)
David Peterson is pitching well for the Mets, but he has struggled to find the strike zone of late. The lefty has gone over this line in five of his last six starts, and his out-of-zone rate is now up to 51.7%. The Orioles aren’t going to help him out, as they have a 10.7% walk rate against left-handed pitching over the last week. 

Michael King to record a win (+135 at DraftKings)
Padres fans sure do love when King takes the mound. San Diego is 16-8 in King’s 24 starts this season, and the right-hander has recorded the win in five of his last seven appearances. On the other side, Twins starter Zebby Matthews is making the first road start of his career after putting up some red flags in his MLB debut last week. Although he surrendered only five hits and two earned runs against the Royals, Matthews gave up a 13.3% barrel rate, a 60.0% hard-hit rate and a 5.81 xERA. 

Bryan Woo under 1.5 walks allowed (-150 at DraftKings)
Woo loves to pound the zone and make opposing hitters earn every base. The Mariners starter has the lowest out-of-zone rate (39.2%) and the fourth-lowest walk rate (2.5%) in MLB among 384 pitchers who have faced at least 100 batters. He’s allowed more than one walk just once in 14 starts this season. The Dodgers normally love to force walks, but they have the third-lowest BB rate against righties over the last two weeks (5.8%). 

Gavin Stone under 16.5 outs recorded (-110 at DraftKings)
Stone is running out of gas as the season goes along. The Dodgers right-hander has gone under this line in six of his last seven starts, and he’s thrown more than 86 pitches just once in that span. Los Angeles is starting to limit Stone to around 85 pitches, which is exactly what you want to see when targeting the under on an outs prop. The Mariners have the seventh-lowest swing rate and the fourth-lowest chase rate in MLB this season, so they’re going to make Stone work for every out. 

J.D. Martinez + David Peralta to record a hit parlay (+132 at FanDuel)
J.D. Martinez is in a bit of a slump right now, but he can break out of it with a familiar matchup on deck. The Mets slugger is 3-7 (.429) with two doubles in his career against Rogers, and he’s been hitting lefties much better than righties all year. As for David Peralta, he’s batting .410 with a .429 BAPIP and a 46.9% hard-hit rate against righties over the last 15 days. 

Jackson Merrill to hit a home run (+550 at DraftKings)
We told you Brendan Rodgers was worth a look at +560 to go yard on Friday, and he did just that to follow up our Tyler Fitzgerald suggestion (+600) in style. Let’s keep it rolling with Jackson Merrill, who’s batting .343 and slugging .800 with a 46.9% hard-hit rate against righties over the last two weeks. We already mentioned Matthews is a decent fade candidate due to how many hard-hit balls he surrendered in his debut, and Merrill can take advantage of a mistake.

Washington + 7 (-110 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
From mid-June to mid-July, the Seattle Storm never left their home in the Pacific Northwest. They went 7-2 during that span. The post-Olympic-break put an end to that run, immediately scheduling Seattle in three straight road games. They escaped a near-loss to the Sparks in their return opener, then fell to the Dream after holding a 14-point lead in the first half. On Sunday they blew another lead in a lost at Indiana. Their fourth and final road spot is in DC, against a Mystics' team that's only suffered embarrassing defeats against Seattle in two previous meetings. We'll look to fade the shaky Storm, who just don't look like the same team right now.

Sabrina Ionescu over 20.5 pts (-113 at FanDuel)
Sabrina Ionescu didn't have the Olympic-performance she was hoping for, especially in the gold medal game (0 points). It appears she noticed, and she's using it as fuel. The former Oregon standout has scored 41 points in two games since returning back to New York, including a 23-point spectacle against last year's WNBA champions, the Las Vegas Aces. Back home after another big W and remaining in Brooklyn for the next week, the Liberty face a Dallas defense that ranks dead-last since the break. Ionescu should have no issue picking them apart.

Connecticut Sun -12.5 (-110 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
The Sun are coming off a very tough fought game in Atlanta, against a Dream-squad that's playing much better basketball lately. Three straight road games wasn't an easy initiation after the Olympic-break, but now Connecticut gets to return home this week, hoping to build momentum against less capable opponents. Still, over their last five games, only the Liberty have a better net rating. The Sparks haven't looked good in their first few games back. They were annihilated by the Liberty and couldn't capitalize on the Storm and Sky's many mistakes. They also rank dead-last in net rating in their last five contests; we smell a beatdown.

Daria Snigur wins 2-0 (-200 at DraftKings)
Daria Snigur has caught the hearts of tennis fans many times before, most notably her above-average play in grand-slam tournaments (she made the second round at Wimbledon this year and the U.S. Open in 2022). The Ukrainian has also become a qualifier-queen, cyclically earning the nod in majors before she eventually falls flat against greater foes. On Monday afternoon she'll battle Valeria Savinykh, a 33-year old competitor who's struggled even in lower-tier events and who's clearly nearing the end of her career. Savinykh's singles career is especially regressing, now ranked 894th in the WTA. There's little reason to think Snigur won't dominate.

Maria Timofeeva wins 2-0 (+160 at FanDuel)
Maria Timofeeva is a 20-year-old Russian who's still rounding into her best form. This year she's shown notable improvement in her command and court IQ, elements that helped her earn a fourth round match at the Australian Open, and got past qualifiers at Roland Garros. Her opponent on Monday, Francisca Jorge, doesn't have nearly the same momentum. The inexperienced Jorge has lost four out of her last five matches, and hasn't experienced nearly the same success on hard surfaces as her foe (Timofeeva is 94-45 in her career on hard courts, a 68% win-rate). This is great value, and should be much closer to even money.

Olga Danilovic wins 2-1 (+270 at FanDuel)
26-year old Xinyu Gao has won 15 titles in the ITF (International Tennis Federation), a mark of her respectable success in lower-circuits, but you won't find any records of her play in Grand Slams. The Chinese player has yet to show she can reach the next level, something Olga Danilovic cannot relate to. Danilovic earns most of her wins on clay courts, evidenced by her last few years at Roland Garros, but hopes to do more at the U.S. Open. She's been given a nice draw in the qualifiers against Gao, but we still don't trust that Danilovic can dominate on a surface where she's only been pedestrian (39-36 in her career). We'll take the Serbian to win in a longer match.