Bobby Witt Jr. Has Gone Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI in 6 of 9 Games

In today’s newsletter…

Astros over 4.5 runs (-102 at FanDuel)
The Astros are 8-2 over their last 10 and are winning at a .706 clip in August. They’ve taken four of five from the Red Sox this season, and we anticipate them winning another. Instead of looking at their run line or moneyline odds, we’re going to isolate their offense (5.1 R/G last 13) against the Red Sox pitching, which has compiled a 5.59 ERA in August, including a 6.30 mark from the bullpen.

Rangers vs. Pirates over 8.5 runs (-102 at DraftKings)
The Rangers lineup has experience — and some success — against Pirates right-hander Domingo German, who has yet to surpass 75 pitches this season. It’s difficult to envision him pitching deep into the contest, leaving plenty of outs for a bullpen that has been mediocre in August. The Pirates, meanwhile, have favorable splits versus lefties, and Rangers starter Andrew Heaney has pitched to a 4.80 ERA over his last three starts.

Nestor Cortes over 18.5 outs recorded (+130 at DraftKings)
The Yankees are entering Game 2 of a nine-game stretch without an off day. Look for them to coax length out of Nestor Cortes after Luis Gil left early in what was ultimately a 12-inning affair on Tuesday night. Cortes will need to be careful with the long-ball, to which he has been susceptible, but the Guardians have not been prolific in the run-scoring department, averaging 3.7 runs over their last 13.

Yankees over 3.5 runs first 7 innings (-120 at DraftKings)
Cleveland used a lot of pitchers against the Yankees, leaving them in a similar position of needing length from rookie left-hander Joey Cantillo. Cantillo is making his fourth start after surrendering three earned runs in each of his first three turns, and allowing four homers overall. The bright lights of New York can be a tough and intimidating environment for a young starting pitcher, an intangible factor that is also worth consideration. 

Royals -1.5 (+105 at FanDuel)
Royals right-hander Michael Lorenzon has pitched respectably since arriving from Texas via trade, and he’ll face off against the Angels and Johnny Cueto. We like the Royals at home, where they have the league’s second-best run differential, but we’re also betting against Johnny Cueto, who is making his first start since September 27, 2023. The Royals are also in good form overall, scoring 6.2 R/G over their last 12 and winning five of six.

Bobby Witt Jr. over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115 at DraftKings)
Witt continues to enjoy the loud breakout that has been expected from him since he donned the cover of the 2022 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, and he’s finished over this mark six times during his current nine-game hitting streak. Hard contact shouldn’t be an issue. Witt only strikeouts at a 15.1% rate, and he’s batting .373/.417/.658 against finesse pitchers.

Athletics under 3.5 runs (-128 at FanDuel)
The Athletics are back to their low-scoring ways, averaging 3.2 R/G across their last 12 contests, and staying under 3.5 in seven of their last 10. They’ll step into the box against the Rays’ Ryan Pepiot, who has been stellar in recent starts. He has a 1.29 ERA and .195 BAA against across his last 21 innings without allowing a home over that span.

Mets moneyline first 5 innings (-125 at DraftKings)
Sean Manaea has been great for the Mets this season, and he’s handled this star-studded Orioles lineup in the past. In 38 plate appearances against the left-hander, current Orioles hitters are batting just .176 with a .267 xwOBA and a .306 xSLG. On the other side, Cole Irvin was struggling so much that Baltimore sent him down to the minors last month. The southpaw is 0-3 in his last four MLB starts, and he gave up 29 hits and 17 earned runs in that span. 

Aaron Nola under 1.5 walks allowed (+105 at DraftKings)
Nola is no stranger to facing this Braves lineup, and he’s done extremely well at limiting walks in this matchup. In 289 plate appearances against Nola, current Braves hitters have walked only 13 times. That’s a walk rate of just 4.5%, which would be the seventh-lowest mark among qualified pitchers this season. Atlanta is an aggressive lineup that ranks third in the league in swing rate and fifth in first-pitch swing rate, and Nola knows how to attack that. 

Diamondbacks team total over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-105 at DraftKings)
Robbery Munoz has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this year. The Marlins right-hander ranks in the first percentile in xERA (6.55) and barrel rate (13.3%), the eighth percentile in hard-hit rate (45.2%) and the 18th percentile in walk rate (10.9%). He’s given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts, and the D-backs have the highest OPS and wRC+ in MLB against righties this month. 

Brewers moneyline (-102 at FanDuel)
The Brewers shouldn’t be underdogs in this matchup. Tobias Myers has been dominant with only six earned runs over his last six starts, and Milwaukee has won 11 of his last 16 starts. On the other side, Kyle Gibson has surrendered at least three earned runs in six of his last nine starts. The Brewers have the fifth-highest OPS and wRC+ against righties this month, while the Cardinals rank 28th in both categories over the same span.

Jack Flaherty 10+ strikeouts (+360 at FanDuel)
Who wants to get crazy with an alternate strikeout prop? Everyone? Fantastic. Jack Flaherty ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (32.2%) and the 93rd percentile in whiff rate (33.0%) this season, while the Mariners have the second-highest whiff rate and the lowest zone contact rate in MLB. Flaherty struck out 10 batters in his first home start with the Dodgers, and this is an even better matchup against the most strikeout-prone lineup in baseball.

Nick Castellanos + Pete Alonso to record a hit parlay (+111 at FanDuel)
Nick Castellanos is currently riding an eight-game hitting streak, and he loves this matchup against Max Fried. In 18 career at-bats against the left-hander, Casty is batting .611 and slugging .833 with only one strikeout. We already mentioned how opposing hitters have been crushing Irvin of late, and Pete Alonso is batting .364 against lefties this month. 

Jackson Merrill to hit a home run (+370 at FanDuel)
Wednesday’s matchup between the Twins and the Padres could be a gold mine for home run props. Petco Park is the friendliest venue for homers this season, and the wind is projected to blow strongly out to center field during the game. Padres starter Matt Waldron is also struggling to keep the ball in the yard with 11 dingers allowed in his last nine starts. Matt Wallner is slugging .590 against right-handed pitching this season, and all seven of his home runs have come off righties.