Multiple Good Matchups for Braves + UFC Fight Night

In today’s newsletter…

Tyler Stephenson 2+ total bases (-105 at DraftKings)
Tyler Stephenson is currently riding a seven-game hitting streak, and this is a great matchup for him to keep it rolling. In 13 career at-bats against Pirates starter Bailey Falter, Stephenson is batting .462 with a double, a home run and only one strikeout. Of his 25 hits against lefties this season, 12 have been extra-base hits. 

Braves -1.5 first 5 innings (+110 at DraftKings)
Talk about a glaring mismatch. Chris Sale has a .126 xBA, a .174 xwOBA, a .202 xSLG and a whopping 54.3% strikeout rate in his career against current Nationals hitters. That’s utter domination. On the other side, Mackenzie Gore has gotten shelled for 39 hits and 24 runs over his last five starts. The Braves also rank second in OPS (.851) and wRC+ (137) against lefties this month, while the Nats rank 21st and 24th in those categories. 

Mackenzie Gore over 2.5 walks allowed (-105 at DraftKings)
Not only are the Braves crushing left-handed pitching this month. They’re also walking at the highest rate in MLB against southpaws in August (13.8%). Gore already struggles with his command, as he ranks in the 29th percentile in walk rate this year (9.5%), but he’s been even worse against current Braves hitters in his career (10.4%). 

Kyle Hendricks under 1.5 walks allowed (-160 at DraftKings)
Kyle Hendricks isn’t having a good season, but one thing he does well is avoid giving up free passes. The right-hander ranks in the 71st percentile in walk rate (6.5%), and he’s gone under this line in seven of his last 10 starts. The Marlins have the highest swing rate and the second-highest first-pitch swing rate in MLB. That, combined with Hendricks’ high contact rate, should lead to a ton of balls in play and little to no walks. 

Oneil Cruz + Yandy Diaz to record a hit parlay (+122 at FanDuel)
It normally isn’t a good idea to back Oneil Cruz with a left-handed pitcher on the mound, but the Pirates slugger is batting .471 and slugging .706 against southpaws this month. Reds lefty Andrew Abbott has given up at least five hits in seven straight starts. Dodgers starter Bobby Miller is also getting hit hard, as he has a .295 xBA and a 45.4% hard-hit rate this season. Yandy Diaz is the best hitter in this Rays lineup, and he should be able to pounce on a Miller mistake. 

Jose Siri to hit a home run (+700 at DraftKings)
Speaking of Miller, the Dodgers right-hander also has an 11.1% barrel rate this year partly due to his 42.8% 4-seam fastball rate. He’s given up 13 earned runs and four homers over his last two starts, so he’s a solid fade target for a home run prop. Jose Siri is a big fan of 4-seam fastballs, as he has a .605 xSLG and a 50.0% hard-hit rate against them this year. He isn’t swinging the bat well right now, but this is an ideal matchup for Siri to snap out of his funk.

Look, summer in New York City has been great and all, but the last few days of what I’m told is our “fake fall” (giving us the false hope that every morning from here on out will be a brisk 60 degrees) has me ready to run through a brick wall to the sound of College GameDay on my TV, NHL players crashing against the glass in Madison Square Garden and sold out postseason baseball crowds. 

I moved to New York City a year ago after living in North Carolina my entire life. If you don’t know about sports in NC, it’s college athletics galore. With NC State, Duke and UNC just miles apart, we go crazy for our football tailgates and basketball rivalries that are unmatched by the lackluster professional sports scene. Moving to NYC really opened my eyes to the world of good professional sports, especially as I met diehard, lifelong pro sports fans who seem to spread their passion across multiple leagues rather than just saying “Oh I love the Yankees, but I don’t watch the Knicks.” It’s all or nothing no matter the ebbs and flows of their teams’ seasons. 

As we head into the most wonderful time of the year, I figured it’d be fun to put together a guide to NYC-area sporting events, in addition to some of my personal favorite places to watch games if you can’t get out to the event itself.

Continue reading Abby’s column on Sportmoney.com.

Falcons +7(-108 at DraftKings)
Allowing one zany, 14-point quarter against Miami is why the Atlanta defense doesn't look as formidable this preseason, but that's misleading. In general, the Falcons' resistance has played hard and displayed many layers, evidenced in the mere 19 points they permitted otherwise across two games. Raheem Morris already said that Michael Penix Jr. won't play anymore and obviously Kirk Cousins will remain out to conserve health, but other newly signed cogs will show the depth of their offense, too. Not to mention, Taylor Heinicke has plenty more to prove. Jacksonville is favored because they're a team in flux that needs more reps, but that alone doesn't justify this number.

Raiders +7 (-105 at DraftKings)
This is a fairly shocking spread considering how poorly the Raiders have played so far, especially on offense. QB Gardner Minshew was named the Week 1 starter, but neither Minshew nor Aidan O'Connell have shown that they have a confident command over Luke Getsy's new system. While San Francisco looks poised to play more starters before the season begins, this contest should only get tighter as it trudges on. Antonio Pierce is a motivator and culture-focused leader who wants his team feeling good before the start of the season, while Shanahan has an already proven roster. The value is on the former California program.

Vikings vs. Eagles under 33 points (-105 at BetOnline)
By now everyone knows that unders have dominated the preseason at a rate that we haven't seen since 2017. This is one of those games that should only add to that story. The number remains higher since Minnesota has scored 51 points in two games, but we see it as a massive overcorrection. Content with starting Sam Darnold Week 1, the Minnesota offense will roll out Matt Corral and Jaren Hall. The Eagles, who have seen plenty from Kenny Pickett to cement his #2 role, will deal out Tanner McKee (who?... exactly) and Will Grier. Sharps haven't bet this down enough. We see another boring, low-scoring affair.

Jets +2.5 (-105 at BetOnline)
Look anywhere on the inter-webs and you can find reports citing the dominance of the Jets over the Giants in the last week of joint-practice sessions before the season. While oddsmakers know that and the Jets remain the dog, we're taking the bait. Firstly, Brian Daboll is just 1-7 ATS as the Giants head coach in the preseason, and he won’t tell the media who’s playing Saturday. That’s partially why this line hasn’t moved. Regardless, the green New York team has significantly more talent and depth than the blue, and we like the quiet confidence of the Jets to keep their momentum going entering Week 1. 

Manchester United to win (+170 at DraftKings)
United opened their season with a late goal to beat Fulham 1-0, while Brighton thumped a 10-man Everton. Don’t let those results fool you, this Man United team dominated Fulham in terms of xG, even if it wasn’t attractive on the eye. They have enough about them to beat Brighton at a big price.

West Ham to win (+225 at DraftKings)
West Ham might have lost to Aston Villa last Sunday, but they took the game to a great Villa team and their attack had real strength in depth with their subs playing very well. Goals will likely come for this team, which is bad news for Palace who have lost Joachim Anderson to Fulham and are still under threat of losing his defensive partner Marc Guehi to Newcastle.

Jeremy Doku to score (+220 @ BetRivers)
Manchester City’s Doku impressed against Chelsea, using his pace and dribbling skills to put the London team under pressure. He finished that game with two shots, and even though he didn’t score it really gives us hope against an Ipswich team who struggled with Liverpool’s pace last Saturday.

Southampton vs Nottingham Forest under 2.5 goals (-111 at Bet365)
Last week we saw Southampton limit Newcastle to a 1-0 win at St James’ Park. Even with Newcastle being down a man, it was still an impressive defensive performance. Now they face Nottingham Forest, who under Nuno Espirito Santo are a defense orientated team. This should be low scoring.

James Maddison to score or assist (-125 at Bet365)
We saw Tottenham’s Maddison pick up an assist against Leicester, and he was arguably the best player on the pitch in that game. Operating in the hole behind Dominic Solanke, he was able to thread through balls to Solanke, as well as Son Heung-Min and Brennan Johnson. We should see him either score, or set one up, against an Everton team who gave up three goals in their opener. 

Arsenal win to nil (+225 at Bet365)
Arsenal had the best defensive record in the Premier League last year and opened this season with a 2-0 win over Wolves. They’re experts at keeping clean sheets and will fancy their chances against a Villa team who didn’t look great going forward against West Ham, despite scoring twice.

Kai Havertz to score (+215 at FanDuel)
The German gets a lot of criticism for how he performs for Arsenal, but it’s largely unfair. He opened his account for the season against Wolves with Arsenal’s second goal. That means he’s now scored 10 times and set up nine more in his last 15 starts for the Gunners. He’s still underrated by many, including the bookies, and at +215 should be considered to score again here.

Newcastle to win (+125 at FanDuel)
Newcastle beat Southampton 1-0 last weekend despite playing with just 10 men for over an hour. Now with a full 11 players, they’re likely to be able to take Bournemouth apart, especially considering that Forest managed more shots and more possession against Bournemouth last weekend.

Diogo Jota to score (+125 at FanDuel)
It was Mohamed Salah who gained the plaudits against Ipswich last week given that he scored and set one up, but Diogo Jota really shone in that game. The Liverpool forward scored the opener and most importantly played down the middle as the team’s number nine. That makes the +125 on offer for him to score intriguing.

Astros moneyline (-118 at FanDuel)
This is all about favoring the Astros’ Hunter Brown against Orioles rookie Cade Povich. Brown has a 2.36 ERA and 3.10 xFIP across his last 42 innings. The Astros have been swinging the bats reasonably well of late, averaging 4.8 R/G over their last 13. They also rank top 10 in batting average against lefties, troubling news for Povich, who is allowing a .403 wOBA over his last four turns.

Rockies under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-135 at DraftKings)
The Rockies enter tonight’s matchup with a number of splits working against them on paper. They feature sub-.700 OPS marks against left-handed pitching, on the road, and against power pitchers. Carlos Rodon has not been at his sharpest in recent starts, but he’s still missing a ton of bats from the left side, and the Rockies are striking out at a 28.3% clip in August.

Yankees over 4.5 runs (-136 at FanDuel)
Kyle Freeland struggles on the road in spite of quality outings at the Angels, White Sox, and Reds, who are a combined 42 games below .500 at home with a minus-189 run differential. The Yankees have a plus-33 run differential along with a 34-28 mark at home, so Freeland’s unfavorable road splits are in play here. The Yankees are averaging 5.0 R/G over their last 12 and have gone over this number in four of their last five home games.

Angles +0.5 first 5 innings (+110 at FanDuel)
Jack Kochanowicz has been effective in his last two turns. He induced 17 groundouts against the Nats in his August 11 start, and will rely on his sinker against a Blue Jays team that rates middle of the pack against sinkers since the start of August. Toronto’s Chris Bassitt, meanwhile, owns unfavorable home splits (4.67 ERA) to go along with a 6.91 ERA and .376 wOBA across his last eight starts.

Guardians moneyline (-134 at FanDuel)
The Guardians enter tonight’s contest on a two-game skid, but there are reasons to like them in this spot against the Rangers. Cleveland plays particularly well at home with a 38-20 record and plus-46 run differential. That’s counter to the Rangers, who are 25-38 with a minus-62 run differential on the road. The unfavorable splits extend to Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 4.87 ERA and .286 BAA away from home.

Royals -0.5 first 5 innings (-106 at FanDuel)
The Phillies are no slouch on the road, but the Royals are particularly dominant at Kauffman Stadium (plus-65 run differential). Kansas City right-hander Michael Wacha owns a 2.40 ERA across his last eight starts. And even though his 4.08 xFIP suggests some good fortune has been at play, we still favor him over Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker, who has a 5.63 ERA and .326 BAA on the road.

White Sox under 3.5 runs (-111 at FanDuel)
The White Sox have been especially anemic of late, averaging 2.7 R/G over their last six, and they’ve remained under this mark in four of their last five. Betting against the White Sox is as much about the human analysis as it is the baseball analysis at this point. The grind of a 162-game season, especially for a team as dreadful as the White Sox, can beat down even the most prideful professional, and the White Sox have the look of a team crawling to the finish.

Cannonier vs. Borralho to end by KO/TKO (+180 at FanDuel)
It’s been a long time since Caio “The Natural” Borralho has lost a fight, 10 years to be exact. After KO’ing Paul Craig in May, the Brazilian can elevate his stock and potentially earn a chance at UFC gold with another marquee win on Saturday. Jared Cannonier is the only UFC fighter to win by KO/TKO at heavyweight, light heavyweight, and middleweight, and has freakish power in the 185 weight class. While both fighters will respect the other’s striking ability, either man can end this about with one devastating blow. Combined they’ve achieved 15 KO/TKOs in 41 bouts; we like one to add another this Saturday. 

Tabatha Ricci by points (+140 at FanDuel)
Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci doesn’t have the same experience level as her opponent on Saturday, but that may be her only vulnerability. The 29-year-old is an explosive athlete that earns at least three takedowns per fight, and her ability to fly toward her opponent with unique striking combinations make her a legitimate two-way threat. Her only recent defeat, a decision loss versus top contender Lupita Godinez, was a learning experience for the developing star. She answered with an impressive decision win over Tecia Pennington, a bout that tested her toughness and Octagon IQ. Angela Hill deserves much credit for her continuing growth, even at age 39, shown in her latest victory by submission. But the aging Strawweight just doesn’t have the same energy or power as her foe, a factor that should make all the difference in a battle that likely goes to the scorecards.