U.S. Open Odds and Red Sox Home Struggles

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The U.S. Open begins today with men’s defending champion Novak Djokovic seeded second behind Jannik Sinner and women’s 2023 champion Coco Gauff seeded third.

You can find the men’s draw here, women’s draw here and daily order of play here. The U.S. Open has one of the biggest purses in all of sports, with both the men’s and women’s winners earning $3.6 million and runners up taking home $1.8 million. A first-round loss nets players $100,000.

Royals moneyline — Game 1 (-120 at FanDuel)
It’s at home where the Royals are particularly dominant, but we’re picking them in Game 1 of their day/night doubleheader in Cleveland nonetheless. The Royals have the pitching matchup in their favor, in theory, sending All-Star Cole Ragans against Nick Sandlin. Ragans has been a little more hittable since the break, but he enters the contest with favorable road splits, and the Guardians are only scoring 3.8 runs/game over their last 10.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox over 9 runs (-110 at FanDuel)
The Red Sox (4.6 runs/game) and Blue Jays (4.9) are both scoring runs at good clips over their last 13 games. They combined to go over in four of their last five contests, including a pair of 13-run performances in each of their last meetings. Monday’s starters, Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox and Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays, enter the contest with unfavorable home and road splits.

Blue Jays moneyline (+136 at DraftKings)
We’re riding with the underdog in this matchup for a few different reasons. The first of which is the respective form of the Red Sox and Blue Jays. The Red Sox have lost three in a row and are bizarrely poor at home (29-35, minus-41 run differential at Fenway Park); meanwhile, on paper, the Blue Jays’ road performance (20-35, minus-21 run differential) suggests they can match what the Red Sox do at home. Plus they’re riding a four-game win streak.

Braves under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (+110 at DraftKings)
This play is about Twins starter Bailey Ober, who has been in quite the groove since mid-June. He owns a 2.09 ERA, .167 BAA, and 0.80 WHIP across his last 73.1 innings. He’s pitching deep into games, and hasn’t logged fewer than six innings in 11 starts. Finally, Ober’s favorable home splits further enhance his case on paper — he’s 7-1 with a 2.78 ERA at Target Field, compared to a 4.08 mark on the road.

Twins moneyline first 5 innings (-114 at FanDuel)
We’re leaning into Ober in this matchup. If he remains in the same form he’s enjoyed since mid-June, he can be expected to keep the Braves’ bats in check — at least to a degree. Meanwhile, the Twins have a tall task against southpaw Max Fried, but he’s produced a 5.51 ERA and 1.59 WHIP across his last six starts, and the Twins rank top 10 in OPS versus lefties.

Tigers -1.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
The White Sox haven’t been close in this series, losing by a combined score of 27-10 across the first three games. They’re scoring 2.5 runs/game over their last 10, and own a 4.87 ERA over that same span. We won’t argue that the Tigers are playing particularly well outside of games against the White Sox, but they’re only a game below .500 so in theory, they have something to play for in a winnable contest.

Rays vs. Mariners under 7 runs (-115 at FanDuel)
Ryan Pepiot takes the hill for the Rays, entering the contest with a 2.02 ERA, .180 BAA, and 1.04 WHIP over his last 35.2 innings. The M’s will counter with George Kirby, whose ERA is nearly a full run lower at home. Good form is certainly important, but neither the Mariners (3.2 runs/game since August 13) nor the Rays (3.6) are scoring runs at a high clip of late.

Madison Keys 2-1 (+290 at FanDuel)
Katerina Siniakova is getting nice treatment from the oddsmakers. She performed well in Cleveland, making it to the semifinal, and she's one-half of one of the best women's teams in the world. Those two factors command some respect, but the reality is Siniakova has never been great on hard courts (55% win rate in her career, lower than any other surface), and she's facing an opponent who's capable of winning the U.S. Open straight up. Madison Keys is fighting off an injury from Wimbledon, but after she gets back in rhythm she should dominate her foe on Monday. We'll look for a Keys' W in a longer battle.

Emma Navarro -6.5 (+106 at FanDuel)
Anna Blinkova is a decent singles competitor in general, but she's shown no reason for us to support her today in the first round in Flushing, NY. The 25-year-old Russian hasn't earned a single hard-court win in America this season, and in her career hard surfaces present her worst overall win-rate (53.73%). Emma Navarro's run at Wimbledon is still on tennis fans' minds and while her recent competitions in Monterrey, Cincinnati and Toronto left much to be desired, a little regression after London was expected. The 12th-ranked player in the world should be ready to explode in the first round.

McCartney Kessler to win (+205 at FanDuel)
This is a really tough first round draw for McCartney Kessler and Marta Kostyuk, but the former is riding more momentum. Kostyuk is an up-and-comer in women's tennis, earning more in 2024 (over $1.4 million) than she ever has while achieving a new top-20 ranking. She nearly medaled at the Olympics, and she's given top-tier competitors a run for their money in big tournaments. But Kessler is a great opponent for the Ukrainian. Kessler is tall, powerful, and has played remarkably well on hard courts, earning a career-high 63rd ranking after a tournament win in Cleveland last week.

Clara Burel to win (-110 at DraftKings)
You'd be hard-pressed to find any success for Sloane Stephens this year. The 31-year old American was a stalwart in women's tennis for a decade, most famously earning a career-high singles record back in 2018 (3rd). Things just haven't gone well in 2024. Her last run of wins was all the way back in April, a small tournament win on clay courts in France, but she's just 4-11 in singles matches since. Clara Burel lacks Stephens' experience, but the 23-year old had an impressive outing in Cleveland last week before falling to Beatriz Haddad-Maia in the quarterfinals. Stephens is earning respectable odds solely because of her history, an angle worth looking at fading.

Tuesday Matches

Mirra Andreeva vs. Camila Osario over 19.5 games (-120 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
Like many tennis players, 22-year-old Camila Osario had mixed results this year but she’s rounding into form at the end of the summer. At the Olympics and in Monterrey last week, she pushed two high-profile Americans, Emma Navarro and Danielle Collins, to their limits in 3-set losses, an indication of how capable a player she is when her confidence grows. Mirra Andreeva, the 17-year old who threatened to win the French Open, had another season of big moments here and there, but the assumption that she’ll simply run through Osario in the first round is an inflated perception found in this low total. We think Osario is a tougher out. 

Bianca Andreescu wins 2-1 (+420 at FanDuel)
Canadian Bianca Andreescu suffered a terrible ankle injury last year, and she's been slowly getting back to form ever since. The former world's #4 won the U.S. Open back in 2019 and historically she's been a savage on hard courts, earning a career-high winning percentage of 71.58%. Jasmine Paolini, who surged this year and made the Finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, was the one who knocked out Andreescu in both tournaments. While Andreescu seeks redemption, this is a very challenging opening draw for Paolini, who hasn't had nearly the same success on hard surfaces (57% win-rate).

Ronel Blanco under 1.5 walks allowed (+150 at DraftKings)
Ronel Blanco has struggled with his command for most of the season. The Astros right-hander has gone over this line in 18 of his 24 starts, but he put up his first walk-less performance of the year two weeks ago against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Phillies have one of the most aggressive lineups in MLB, especially lately. Philadelphia has the lowest walk rate against righties over the last two weeks (5.0%), so this could be worth a sprinkle at +150. 

J.T. Realmuto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+105 at DraftKings)
After a slow start coming out of the All-Star break, J.T. Realmuto is starting to find a groove at the plate. The Phillies catcher is batting .478 with 10 RBIs and five runs scored against righties over his last nine games. He also went over this line in eight of those nine. Blanco isn’t the easiest matchup, but that’s giving us a solid price on a red-hot batter. 

Nationals vs. Yankees both teams to score 2+ runs — first 5 innings (+145 at DraftKings)
Mitchell Parker has gotten shelled by some of the best lineups he’s faced this season, most recently giving up 10 hits and nine earned runs to the Phillies two weeks ago. Well, the Yankees rank third in MLB in wRC+ (116) and fifth in OPS (.769) against lefties this month. Nestor Cortes is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings, but he surrendered at least three earned runs in seven of his eight starts leading up to that stretch. 

Padres team total over 3.5 runs first 7 innings (+105 at DraftKings)
The Padres are on fire against right-handed pitching. San Diego ranks second in batting average (.284), third in wRC+ (136) and fifth in OPS (.829) against righties over the last 10 days. This lineup has also crushed Kyle Gibson in the past, as current Padres hitters have a .311 BA, a .377 xwOBA and a .468 xSLG in 130 combined plate appearances against the Cardinals starter. 

Edward Cabrera 7+ strikeouts (+180 at FanDuel)
This is the perfect time to consider Edward Cabrera in a bounce-back spot. The Marlins right-hander has recorded only nine total strikeouts over his last three starts, but those came against stingy strikeout teams in the Diamondbacks, Phillies and Padres. The Rockies, on the other hand, have the highest whiff rate in baseball this year (29.5%) and the highest strikeout rate against righties this month (28.8%). Cabrera faced off against Colorado earlier this year and racked up nine Ks in only 4.0 innings. 

Bryan De La Cruz + Luis Arraez to record a hit parlay (-122 at DraftKings)
Bryan De La Cruz is batting .302 over the last 15 days, and this is a solid matchup against Jameson Taillon. The Cubs righty has given up at least five hits in five straight starts, and opposing hitters are batting .265 against him on the road. As for Luiz Arraez, he’s batting .316 against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks, and he’s 5-7 (.714) in his career against Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson. 

Ezequiel Tovar to hit a home run (+450 at DraftKings)
Although we like Cabrera to rack up a ton of strikeouts on Monday night, he will be vulnerable to the long ball at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The 26-year-old ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel rate (9.9%) and the sixth percentile in hard-hit rate (45.9%) this season. Ezequiel Tovar has gone homer-less in 15 straight games, but he’s swinging the bat well with his 53.8% hard-hit rate against righties over the last two weeks. Tovar is also batting .404 and slugging .606 against changeups this year, which just happens to be Cabrera’s most-used pitch. 

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