NFL Futures + Colorado's Chances to Put Up Points Against ND State

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The U.S. Open is on to the second round today, and there are some very intriguing matchups for it being so early in the tournament (lines from FanDuel):

CJ Stroud leads NFL in pass TDs (+1100 at FanDuel)
Few things are objective before the start of an NFL season, except for how talented the Houston Texans' offense is. Many will scoff at the addition of Stefon Diggs, who seemed to fall off a little in Buffalo, but WRs are resurrected in domes and the kid plays with fire; he'll be out to prove doubters wrong. Besides, Houston already had a 1,300-yard, 8-touchdown receiver last season in Nico Collins. Tank Dell is pretty good, too. Any one of those guys can be lethal downfield. CJ Stroud has already solidified himself as one of the league's best passers (the evidence is just too overwhelming), and a new, professional back in Joe Mixon doesn't hurt, either. The table is set for CJ.

Tua Tagovailoa most regular season passing yards (+1000 at FanDuel)
Last year's passing yards leader is already getting snubbed by oddsmakers. At most books he's listed as the 5th most likely outcome, a valuation we cannot agree with. Firstly, there are no negative changes to the Miami Dolphins' offense, a group that had more top-5 rankings than we can count in 2023. Mike Geicki's departure wasn't great, but newcomer TE Jonnu Smith is turning heads in camp. And say what you want about Odell Beckham Jr., but the guy is an incredible third option. Two dynamic pass-catching backs and an environmental advantage in south Florida grant Tua another year as good as any to hit this wager.

Jayden Daniels AP Offensive Rookie of the Year (+600 at FanDuel)
All the hype for this award is rightly on Caleb Williams and his surrounding talent, but there's a name down in D.C. that's also turning heads. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has shown a lot of poise and playmaking ability in the preseason. He's also shown beautiful zip on his mid-range throws, a style reminiscent of a certain Patrick Mahomes. Of course it's just the preseason, but Jayden Daniels' processing looked extremely quick and he was confident in limited action. Along with his scrambling and running ability, Daniels has a chance to turn the Commanders into a playoff team. If Caleb misses the postseason, this award is open for the enigma from LSU.

Aidan Hutchinson AP Defensive Player of the Year (+1400 at FanDuel)
Third year EDGE Aidan Hutchinson is only getting better, and so far he's had to do it alone. The former Michigan star is on the road to this award at some point in his career; why not 2024? The addition of DJ Reader is a big deal. Reader is a 335 pound monster that knows how to clog fronts and give his teammates an advantage, something that could make life easier for the already relentless Hutchinson. Plus, a Lions' offense that's positioned to perform even better than last year is a defensive end's best friend. Detroit's rise creates an opportunity for Hutchinson to shine, meaning big sack numbers are very possible. This is great value in an Aaron Donald-less world. 

Shane Steichen AP Coach of the Year (+1500 at BetMGM)
When Shane Steichen joined the Colts last season, he had high hopes for rookie QB Anthony Richardson. Although far from perfect, Richardson showed flashes of brilliance in 3.4 games before injury, so much that an unnamed NFL coach recently said "everybody is scared to death" of the second-year QB. We don't blame them. The combo of Richardson and Steichen, who's offense led Philadelphia to a Super Bowl win not long ago, means a talented Colts' roster could realize notable improvement in 2024. Lest we forget, Steichen's Colts won 6 out of their last 9 games with Gardner Minshew last season; this could be 2024's Cinderella-squad.

Green Bay Packers win NFC (+800 at FanDuel)
The new talk of the NFC North is the Detroit Lions. Jordan Love could care less. Last year's easiest guy to attack is now one of the hottest QBs in the league entering 2024, and his team is even better this year. Pro-Bowler Josh Jacobs joins as the Packers new #1 back, hungry after years of disappointment in Vegas. Star safety Xavier McKinney joins an already talented secondary and the Packers made sure their defensive stalwarts (Preston Smith, Rashan Gary) stay in place. Matt LaFleur has looked in his element guiding a new era of Packers' football, and we believe in the hype. 

Washington Commanders win NFC East (+1200 at BetMGM)
The Cowboys finally signed CeeDee Lamb but things just seem off. Re-signing Zeke? Letting go of several key offensive lineman? Meanwhile, the Giants are likely a dumpster fire again and Philly news tells us that apparently Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni don't get along (not shocking, they're polar opposites). From our vantage point, the NFC East is wide-open. No. 2 overall draft pick Jayden Daniels has above-average weapons all around him and new head coach Dan Quinn is a defensive guru that can elevate their resistance. All three other teams are at a tipping point, whereas life is new and exciting in DC. There's value on the red and yellow.

Royals moneyline first 5 innings (+106 at FanDuel)
The Royals are 7-3 over their last 10 compared to the Guardians’ 3-7 mark. A quick look at their respective offensive form begins to tell the story. Kansas City is averaging 5.9 runs/game over that span compared to Cleveland’s 3.8. Michael Wacha vs. Tanner Bibee is a quality pitching matchup on paper, but we’re considering the Royals’ hot bats against Bibee’s unfavorable home splits.

Rays vs. Mariners under 3.5 runs first 5 innings (+100 at DraftKings)
The Rays and Mariners finished under the total in each of their previous two games this series, and this one looks like another low-scoring contest on paper. Seattle’s Luis Castillo is producing far superior numbers at home, including a 3.15 ERA (vs. 4.35 on the road), and T-Mobile Park plays incredibly pitcher friendly, day and night. Plus, neither the Rays nor the Mariners are swinging the bats especially well at the moment.

Tigers over 4.5 runs (-110 at DraftKings)
The Tigers are riding a five-game win streak and averaging 5.1 runs/game over their last 10, an 8-2 stretch. The Angels, meanwhile, have lost six in a row, and produced a 5.40 ERA while finishing 1-9 over their last 10. Angels starter Griffin Canning enters with a 4.84 ERA and 1.2 HR/9 over his last four starts and a 5.23 ERA on the road.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox over 4.5 run s first 5 innings (-125 at FanDuel)
It’s easy to look at a Chris Bassitt vs. Brayan Bello matchup and think “runs.” Both pitchers have been hittable in recent weeks — Bassitt has a 6.55 ERA in August and Bello has a 4.09 ERA. Making matters worse is Bello’s 5.54 ERA at Fenway Park. The Blue Jays are averaging 5.2 runs/game over their last 10 and have had success against Bello, particularly Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.

Bryan Bello over 2.5 earned runs (-115 at DraftKings)
We touched on Bello above, who enters today’s start with a 6.38 ERA across his last seven home starts, including a 2.1-inning outing in which he surrendered seven earned runs against the Blue Jays. We like the way Toronto is swinging the bats of late and are anticipating another quality offensive showing. Current Blue Jays hitters have a .393/.439/.639 line against Bello.

Twins under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
This is about the run of dominance Atlanta’s Chris Sale is enjoying. Sale has started 13 consecutive games without allowing more than two earned runs. His 2.19 ERA in August doesn’t do justice to how dominant he’s been this month. He owns a 35.0% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate, and 1.84 xFIP across his last 24.2 innings.

(Games on Thursday and Friday)

North Carolina vs. Minnesota under 50.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
After losing Drake Maye to the NFL, North Carolina turns to Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson to lead the offense in 2024. This is Johnson’s third team as a college quarterback, and Mack Brown will slowly work him into the new offense while featuring star running back Omarion Hampton on the ground. Minnesota also wants to run the ball and work the clock with Darius Taylor, so don’t expect too many explosive passing plays down the field.

Colorado team total over 37.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
This is going to be a popular upset pick in Week 1, but Colorado should be able to light up the scoreboard in Deion Sanders’ 2024 debut. The biggest issue the Buffaloes faced last season was their offensive line, but Sanders hit the transfer portal hard and replaced all five starters. North Dakota State is an elite FCS team, but none of these players have faced NFL talent like Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. Now that Sanders will have more than two seconds to throw, Colorado can put up a big number here.

Jimmy Horn Jr. 60+ receiving yards (+165 at DraftKings)
North Dakota State will surely put all its focus on slowing down Hunter in the passing game, which will leave Horn isolated in single coverage. We saw his ability to pop as a speedy receiver last season, as he went over 60 receiving yards five times in the first seven games. Horn went off for 117 yards on 11 catches in last year’s debut against TCU, and Colorado should find ways to get the ball in his hands and showcase his yards-after-catch ability. 

Michigan State -14 (-108 at DraftKings)
There isn’t much buzz about Michigan State heading into the 2024 season, but this is a team that could surprise some folks in the Big Ten. Former Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith is a massive upgrade over Mel Tucker, and he brought with him dynamic quarterback Aidan Chiles. With an improved offensive line and a dual-threat quarterback now in place, Michigan State should be able to pull away from a Florida Atlantic squad that lost its top two quarterbacks from last season. 

Elon team total under 11.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Manny Diaz takes over as the head coach at Duke after leading Penn State to one of the nation’s best defensive units for the last two years. He doesn’t have a great track record as a head coach, but you know he’ll have that defense humming out of the gates. Elon likes to stretch the field and take deep shots, but Duke’s secondary is one of the strengths of this team. Diaz’s group will limit explosives and keep the Phoenix in check.

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