Abby's Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet, U.S. Open Action

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Today’s issue is packed, with Jack covering college football’s first full weekend, Craig tracking today’s MLB slate, Chris with U.S. Open matchups, and Sam analyzing the weekend’s Premier League games. For her column this week, Abby worked with PFF on a fantasy football cheat sheet for you all.

- Abe Rakov

Is LSU really better than USC?

By Jack Dougherty

Clemson vs. Georgia first half under 24.5 points (-120 at BetMGM)
Georgia is coming off a nightmare offseason in which multiple players were arrested, injured or embroiled in other legal issues. The Bulldogs will likely be without starting running back Trevor Etienne due to a suspension, and backup RB Rod Robinson is also doubtful after undergoing surgery on his toe. The RB room looks bleak for this matchup, so Georgia’s offense is likely going to be one-dimensional against a ferocious Clemson defensive line. It’s going to take the Bulldogs a while to find a groove offensively. 

Penn State -7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Bettors seem to love West Virginia in this matchup, as the spread has plummeted from -10.5 to -7.5 over the last few weeks. It’s time to look at the dip. There isn’t much of a difference between this matchup and last year’s when Penn State won 38-15 and averaged 7.4 yards per play. That was under Mike Yurcich’s antiquated offensive system, too. The Nittany Lions bring in Andy Kotelnicki to inject some life into this group, and he’ll be able to scheme Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen into open space. Wait and see if you can get a -7 before kickoff. 

Omari Evans first touchdown scorer (+1900 at FanDuel)
Kotelnicki loves to spread defenses out and create explosive passing plays, and his best option for that on the outside is speedy WR Omari Evans. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Penn State take a deep shot on its first drive, just as it did last year against West Virginia when KeAndre Lambert-Smith scored a 72-yard touchdown five minutes into the game. 

Akron team total under 0.5 points first half (-132 at FanDuel)
Akron was one of the worst offensive teams in the country last season, and now they have to go up against arguably the most talented defense in the country in Ohio State. Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau are going to do whatever they want against this offensive line, and quarterback Tahj Bullock won’t have any time to throw in the pocket. It’s hard to imagine the Zips getting past mid-field before the Buckeyes pull their starters. 

Texas A&M -3 (-105 at DraftKings)
This line opened at a pick’em and slowly moved toward Texas A&M as oddsmakers realized the trouble Notre Dame could be in. For one, new Aggies head coach Mike Elko knows exactly how to defend Riley Leonard because — well, he coached the quarterback for the last two years. The biggest key, though, is Notre Dame’s banged-up offensive line going up against one of the best front sevens in the country. The Fighting Irish will be starting a true freshman at left tackle, and their starting group has only six combined starts between the five of them. 

Hawaii +14 (-108 at DraftKings)
Hawaii has the advantage in this matchup because it already worked out some kinks in a Week 0 win against Delaware State. It wasn’t a dominant performance by any stretch, but head coach Timmy Chang was likely calling a vanilla offense and saving the good stuff for UCLA. Quarterback Brayden Schager can really air it out, and we’re not sold on the Bruins under new head coach DeShaun Foster. UCLA is going to be rusty working in a new system, so don’t be surprised if Hawaii pulls off the upset here. 

USC moneyline (+165 at Bet365)
Week 1 in college football is a great time to take some shots on underdog moneylines because it’s impossible to know how good these teams are before we see them play. In the case of LSU and USC, are we sure the Tigers are the better team? Lincoln Riley looks to have another star quarterback at his disposal, as Miller Moss returns after torching Louisville for 372 yards and six touchdowns in the Holiday Bowl last year. This is going to be a fast-paced, high-scoring game with two bad defenses, creating more volatility for the underdog to win outright.

Labar: Our Fantasy Football cheat sheet (with help from PFF)

Over the years I have dabbled here and there in fantasy football. But last season I really dove into that world when I was hired to create fantasy and betting content. I’ll tell you what, I learned a TON. I actually ordered the book Fantasy Football for Dummies and I have zero shame admitting it.

The one thing that really intrigued me about fantasy is how you look at the game and the players through a different lens. A popular player that is productive and helps the team win on a weekly basis might not necessarily be somebody you want on your fantasy team. Data, analytics, statistics, the numbers are so important in deciphering the difference between a good player and a good fantasy player – and then there are the matchups, which make each week an entirely different ballgame (pun intended). 

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Padres have the advantage going up against pitcher with 8.10 ERA in August

By Craig Williams

Red Sox -0.5 first 5 innings (-102 at FanDuel)
The Red Sox are better on the road, evidenced by their 38-27 record, +56 run differential, and 5.2 runs/game away from home. Detroit, meanwhile, is a .500 team at Comerica Park. Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck has struggled in August, but he’s still inducing heavy groundball rates. He’ll have the support he needs if the Red Sox are able to tag Tigers starter Casey Mize, who is making his first start since June 30.

Padres over 3.5 runs (-108 at FanDuel)
The Padres have cooled off a tad, going 5-5 over their last 10 after threatening the Dodgers in the National League West. They’re still dominant on the road (39-28, 4.9 runs/game), and facing a mediocre Rays team. Rays starter Taj Bradley has struggled mightily in August, pitching to an 8.10 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 21 innings. He also allowed five home runs over that span.

Padres moneyline (+112 at FanDuel)
The Padres’ quality performance on the road applies here, especially their +72 run differential juxtaposed with the Rays’ -32 run differential at home. Neither team is playing particularly well at the moment, so there’s no obvious form advantage on either side. The Rays, however, have a .661 OPS against finesse pitchers, a category which includes Martin Perez. Meanwhile, Taj Bradley’s aforementioned struggles figure to play a starring role in this contest.

Yankees over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
The Yankees’ 4.5 runs/game average over their last 10 is tamped down somewhat by continued struggles against left-handers. That won’t be a problem against the Cardinals’ Erick Fedde, who has a 5.04 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, and 1.6 HR/9 in 27.2 innings with the Cardinals. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto — a tough series in Washington notwithstanding — continue to produce at MVP levels, and they have enough support for bettors to anticipate early offense.

Aaron Judge over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (+105 at DraftKings)
It’s been a few games since Judge has gone over this number, but we’re not deterred in this spot. It wouldn’t be accurate to suggest Judge has unfavorable home/road or platoon splits, but he has been especially dominant at home (1.271 OPS) and against right-handers (.338 BA). Facing a right-hander will likely provide a boost for the entire offense, increasing the chances a teammate will help nudge Judge to the over if he doesn’t do it all himself.

Mets -1.5 first 7 innings (+124 at DraftKings)
Mets right-hander Tylor Megill may not inspire much confidence, but Chicago has averaged 2.5 runs per game over their last 10, a span in which they’re 1-9 overall with an active seven-game skid. Meanwhile, Jonathan Cannon takes the hill for the Southsiders with a .318 BAA and 6.10 ERA over his last 20.2 innings. The Mets don’t strike out a lot, and Cannon doesn’t miss bats, putting the White Sox’s poor defense under pressure.

Angels under 0.5 runs first 3 innings (+100 at DraftKings)
We’re leaning into the poor form of the Angels, whose futility may only be surpassed by the White Sox. They’re scoring 2.9 runs/game over their last 10 and struggling to produce offense early in games. This play requires faith in Mariners starter George Kirby, who hasn’t been particularly sharp in recent starts, but we like him against the light-hitting Los Angeles lineup.

American Women on a Rolling at U.S. Open so Far

By Chris Farley

Emma Navarro wins 2-0 (+165 at FanDuel)
Marta Kostyuk's rise this year is worth a ton of respect. The Ukrainian fights hard and represents her country well, even making it deep into tournament play at the Olympics. But she hasn't looked great in New York, struggling early in matches that should be easy for someone on her level. Emma Navarro is playing with the same swag that took her to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Except in London, she lost seven games in her first two matches. She's only lost four in Flushing. Navarro seems intent on reminding the world how good she is, and Kostyuk hasn't had her typical command.

Peyton Stearns to win (+116 at FanDuel)
Donna Vekic has had a great year. The Croatian started gaining steam this summer, thriving on grass all the way to her semifinal match against Jasmine Paolini at Wimbledon, where she lost in a third set tiebreaker. There's no doubt that her stock is high, currently ranked 24th in the WTA, but she's also never faced Peyton Stearns. Stearns' aggressive style has worked wonders for her in New York, dismantling Lesia Tsurenko and 12th-seeded Daria Kasatkina in straight sets. Vekic’s star has been shining brightly, but a high-energy power-hitter never suits her well. Just ask Jasmine Paolini. We love Stearns' momentum to overwhelm Vekic early.

Madison Keys wins 2-0 (+105 at DraftKings)
So far this seems like a very U-S-A leaning post, but the Americans are earning their merit! Madison Keys is playing like she's going to win the U.S. Open, dominating the very formidable Katerina Siniakova in the first round and humbling the upstart Maya Joint in the second. She's been virtually flawless and seems extremely comfortable on the hard court, like many of her American colleagues. Elise Mertens is a wily veteran who should never be underestimated, but when Keys is playing this brand of tennis only the truly elite can stop her.

Yulia Putintseva vs. Jasmine Paolini over 2.5 sets (+110 at DraftKings)
These two are mirror images of each other. When Yulia Putinseva decides to turn it on, she can be really good. We've seen it before, like her brief but hot run at Wimbledon, and now she's giving off the same vibes in the States. The Kazakhstani has a flare and moxy about her on the court, much like her opponent on Friday. Jasmine Paolini has been mowing through grand slams all year, getting oh-so-close to a singles title at Roland Garros and in London. In her first match in New York, she struggled against Bianca Andreescu. Unfortunately, human bodies are prone to slowing down after a long, grueling season, and we see Putinseva pushing the Italian to the brink.

Ben Shelton wins 3-1 (+360 at FanDuel)
It'll be an all-American war when Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton clash Friday afternoon. Shelton has a 2-0 lead head-to-head, with the younger Shelton losing just one set to his elder. It's not hard to see why he's had an edge, either. Shelton is an aggressive player, the kind that roams the baseline with ease and looks to smash forehands beyond his opponent's reach. Tiafoe has plenty of power, but the 26 year old prefers to react and out-maneuver his foes, something the naturally talented Shelton is never bothered by. Tiafoe is a fighter and likely gets a set, but another dominant W for the youth presents lovely value.

(Saturday Match)

Anna Kalinskaya wins 2-1 (+270 at DraftKings)
Anna Kalinskaya often gets attention for her likeability outside the tennis court, which causes many to underestimate how talented she is. She's in her prime at 25 and seemingly ready to ascend to new heights, entering the U.S. Open in the top-15. She drew an easier first two rounds than most, but she's looked great nonetheless. Beatriz Haddad Maia has been excellent on hard courts this year, going on a superb run in Cleveland that led into more high-level performances in New York. We just don't like this matchup for the Brazilian. Kalinskaya is rangy and can cover a lot of ground, often a nightmare for power-hitters like Haddad Maia. Stylistically, this sets up well for the Russian.

Newcastle’s Slow Start Gives Tottenham Hope on the Road
By Sam Farley

(Saturday Matches)

Kaoru Mitoma over 0.5 shots on target (+125 at Bet365)
Brighton face a tough game at Arsenal but they’re unbeaten so far, beating both Everton and Man Utd. Mitoma has been excellent and has three shots on target through two games. He’s getting into dangerous positions and is good value at plus money to get a shot on target here.

Aston Villa to win (-130 at Caesars)
Aston Villa have won just one of their two games so far but they’ve played West Ham and Arsenal, two good opponents. Now they face one of this season’s relegation candidates. This Villa team has been improved from the one which finished fourth last year, and they will fancy their chances of the win.

Everton vs Bournemouth under 2.5 goals (+100 at Bet365)
Only one team scored fewer goals than Everton last season, and they’ve started this season in similar blunt style in front of goal. They’re one of just two teams yet to score, while Bournemouth have only managed a goal per game. This should be low scoring.

Tim Iroegbunam to be shown a card (+250 at FanDuel)
Everton’s new signing has been working hard in their two defeats, but he’s proving to be very rash in the tackle. He’s given up seven fouls through two games, tied for the most in the Premier League, and picked up one yellow card. In a tough game in front of a fiery home crowd, he’s ripe for a card.

Rodrigo Muniz to score (+210 at FanDuel)
Playing Liverpool and Man City in back-to-back weeks is as hard as an opening to a Premier League season can be, but it’s still a concern that Ipswich have allowed six goals. They now face a Fulham team who have looked good. Their striker, Rodrigo Muniz, has averaged 1.71 shots on target per 90 minutes played. He’s yet to score but it’s coming soon. Newly promoted Ipswich could be the perfect opponent.

West Ham vs Man City both teams to score (-143 at Bet365)
Man City come into this match averaging three goals scored per game but they’ve not looked as good as usual defensively, which will give West Ham hope. The West Ham attack is a dangerous one with Jarrod Bowen, Niclas Fullkrug and Mohammed Kudus. With the pace and creativity in the West Ham attack we could see both teams score.

(Sunday Matches)

Eberechi Eze to score (+300 at FanDuel)
England star Eze has been hugely unlucky not to score so far this season. He’s had four shots on target in just two games. Positive regression is surely coming soon. Given that Chelsea have conceded four goals in two games, it makes +300 look a very appealing price.

Tottenham to win (+160 at FanDuel)
Newcastle come into the weekend sixth in the Premier League table but in truth they’ve been the biggest disappointment so far this season. It’s only two games, but a narrow win over Southampton and point against Bournemouth, in a game they were lucky not to lose, have raised alarm bells.

Man Utd to win (+280 at BetRivers)
Liverpool are odds-on favorites to beat United at -115 but that price doesn’t seem a fair reflection. We’ve only seen two games from Liverpool under Arne Slot, and while they’ve won both, they did only beat Ipswich and Brentford — which maybe is a fair reflection of why they’re such short odds to win. United haven’t been great so far, but we still don’t know enough about these teams for either to be a strong favorite, especially away from home.

Ryan Gravenberch to be shown a card (+370 at FanDuel)
Man Utd vs Liverpool games are always feisty and odds of +370 on Gravenberch looks a very big price. He’s already had one booking this season and has averaged 3.5 fouls committed per game. If he keeps that up, in this heated derby, then he has a very good chance at being shown a card.

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