Today’s 2 NFL Playoff Games Have 3.5-Point Spreads, Texans vs. Pats Winner Will Open As New AFC Favorite

We also have trends, odds, and players to watch in NBA, MCBB, and NHL action

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Broncos win but Nix injury makes them an underdog going forward

2. Game of the Day: Texans looking for first-ever AFC Championship Game appearance

3. Scouting Report: Rockets’ Durant is coming off season-high performance

4. By the Numbers: Bears are home underdogs again

5. Overtime: Two fired NFL coaches got new jobs, plus clarity for a third

1. Leading Off

Shortly after Denver’s 33-30 overtime win over Buffalo, the team announced that Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle during the game-winning drive and is out for the rest of the playoffs. The second-year quarterback not only finished the game, he even went through a post-game interview on the field without showing pain or even mentioning an injury.

The team said Nix was hurt three plays before he was on the sideline watching the game-winning field goal. The play in question was a run by the quarterback, and on the next snap he threw a long pass down the field that drew the second of two long pass interference penalties that turned Wil Lutz’s field goal attempt into a chip shot. Nix was 26-46 for 279 yards with three touchdowns and one interception, along with 12 carries for 29 yards.

Jarrett Stidham will start under center for the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game and will go up against one of the best defenses in the NFL no matter who wins today’s Texans vs. Patriots matchup. Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass outside of the preseason since January 2024 and has eight touchdowns and eight interceptions in 20 games in his six-year career. Next week’s conference title matchup will be in Denver, but with a backup quarterback and a defense that just gave up 30 points the Broncos currently would open as the underdog against either potential opponent.

On the NFC side, Seattle ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown and never looked back in a 41-6 blowout win over the 49ers. The Seahawks will host the winner of the Rams vs. Bears game today. The two Seattle-Los Angeles matchups this season were decided by a combined three points, while a Chicago win would send the Bears on the road for only the second time in seven games.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

Patriots Hope MVP-Candidate QB and Elite Defense Can Get Them Back to AFC Championship

New England is looking to return to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since winning the Super Bowl in 2019, while Houston has never made it that far in the playoffs. The Texans will be without star wide receiver Nico Collins due to a concussion he suffered in last week’s win, but it’s the defense that has driven their 10-game winning streak. Houston was first in the NFL during the regular season in yards per game allowed (277.2), second in points per game given up (17.4) and fourth in rushing yards surrendered (93.7).

The Patriots are once again led by an MVP-candidate at quarterback in Drake Maye, who threw for 4,394 yards in the regular season, completed 72% of his passes, and had 31 touchdowns to eight interceptions. The second-year starter led the NFL in passer rating and yards per attempt. New England’s defense has also been one of the league’s best, giving up just 18.8 points per game, good for fourth overall. The 40.5 total for this matchup is the lowest in the Divisional Round by four points.

No. 5 Texans (12-5, 5-3 Away) vs. No. 2 Patriots (14-3, 6-3 Home)
3pm on ESPN/ABC

The Odds

• Spread: HOU (+3, -104), NE (-3, -118)

  • 63% of the money and 56% of the bets are with NE

  • ATS | HOU (road): 5-4, NE (home): 5-4-1

• Moneyline: HOU +150, NE -180

• Total (40.5): Over -118, Under -104

  • HOU: 6-12, NE: 11-7

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• HOU QB C.J. Stroud | Pass Yards: 214.5 (219.4 - 250, 169, 244, 187), Pass Attempts: 31.5 (30.3 - 32, 23, 28, 35, 29), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.3 - 1, 1, 2, 1, 3)

• HOU RB Woody Marks | Rush Yards: 52.5 (47.9 - 112, 48, 71, 30, 68), Carries: 15.5 (12.6 - 19, 10, 19, 7, 26), Anytime TD: +155 (0.4 - 1, 0, 0, 0, 1)

• NE QB Drake Maye | Pass Yards: 219.5 (259.0 - 268, 191, 256, 380, 155), Pass Attempts: 29.5 (28.9 - 29, 18, 21, 44, 23), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.8 - 1, 1, 5, 2, 0), Rush Yards: 37.5 (28.7 - 66, 41, 22, 25, 43)

• NE TE Hunter Henry | Rec Yards: 39.5 (46.2 - 64, 56, 49, 35, 18), Receptions: 3.5 (5.1 - 3, 5, 3, 6, 1), Anytime TD: +190 (0.4 - 1, 0, 1, 1, 0)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. Scouting Report

Rockets’ Durant Scored Season High 39 Last Time Out, Stars’ Johnston is on Points Run

Rockets F Kevin Durant (vs. Pelicans)

• Durant followed up his first sub-20 point game (in a 111-91 loss to the Thunder) since early December by putting up 39 on Friday in a win against the Timberwolves. It was the most he’s scored since joining the Rockets. Durant has averaged 29.3 points in his past six outings and grabbed 10+ rebounds in two of those efforts. The Pelicans have lost 12 of 14 games and in the past seven have allowed 29 points to Jay Huff, 35 to Jamal Murray and 31 to Peyton Watson in the same game, 27 to Desmond Bane, 25 to Zaccharie Risacher, and 30 to both Luka Doncic and LeBron James in the same game.

• Points: 24.5 (26.3 - 39, 19, 28, 23, 30), Reb: 5.5 (5.4 - 4, 7, 10, 4, 12), Ast: 4.5 (4.5 - 7, 3, 4, 6, 4)

• NOP - L1 (2-8) | Points Against: 122.3 (28th), Reb Against: 45.1 (23rd), Ast Against: 29.0 (28th)

Bulls C Nikola Vucevic (vs. Nets)

• Vucevic has scored 19+ points in four of seven games and has increased his scoring average by nearly five points in January compared to December (20.4 to 15.6). Despite being near the bottom of the conference standings, Brooklyn’s defense hasn’t been what’s letting the team down — the Nets are 10th in points against per game. Brooklyn held Chicago to 109 on Friday, but Vucevic still finished two points above his season average with 19. He scored a season-high 35 the game before against the Jazz.

• Points: 17.5 (17.0 - 19, 35, 14, 15, 20), Reb: 8.5 (9.1 - 6, 7, 7, 12, 16), Ast: 3.5 (3.7 - 5, 5, 5, 3, 4)

• BKN - W1 (2-8) | Points Against: 113.8 (10th), Reb Against: 43.3 (12th), Ast Against: 27.4 (21st)

Stars C Wyatt Johnston (vs. Lightning)

• The Lightning are a very good defensive team, but the Stars haven’t been shut out in over a month and if anyone is going to lead to a goal Johnston is the most likely. He has at least one point in seven of eight games this month, including the past three. Johnston didn’t nab a point when these teams played October 30th, but was well above-average in shots with four. The Stars have lost two straight and scored just one goal in each, but they haven’t netted one or fewer goals in three contests in a row all season.

• 3+ Shots on Goal: +142 (2.5 - 2, 4, 1, 3, 5), Anytime Goal: +200 (0.5 - 0, 0, 1, 0, 1), Points: TBA (1.1 - 1, 1, 1, 0, 1)

• TB - L1 (9-0-1) | Goals Against: 2.54 (2nd), Shots Against: 25.2 (6th), Save Percentage: .907 (5th)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

4. By the Numbers

Bears Are Home Underdogs Again, Rams’ Nacua Has Scored a TD in 4 Straight Games

NFL

No. 5 Rams (12-5, 5-4 Away) vs. No. 2 Bears (11-6, 6-2 Home)

• Spread: LAR (-3.5, -120), CHI (+3.5, -102)

  • 52% of the money and 57% of the bets are with CHI

  • ATS | LAR (road): 5-4, CHI (home): 6-3

• Moneyline: LAR -198, CHI +166

• Total (48.5): Over -112, Under -108

  • LAR: 11-7, CHI: 8-10

Players to Watch

• LAR QB Matthew Stafford | Pass Yards: 263.5 (278.4 - 304, 259, 269, 457, 368), Pass Attempts: 34.5 (35.5 - 42, 40, 38, 49, 38), Pass TD: 2.5 (2.7 - 3, 4, 2, 3, 2)

• LAR WR Puka Nacua | Rec Yards: 97.5 (107.4 - 111, 76, 47, 225, 181), Receptions: 7.5 (8.2 - 10, 10, 5, 12, 9), Anytime TD: -115 (0.8 - 1, 1, 1, 2, 0)

• CHI QB Caleb Williams | Pass Yards: 217.5 (239.1 - 361, 212, 330, 250, 242), Pass Attempts: 32.5 (34.2 - 48, 33, 42, 34, 28), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.6 - 2, 2, 2, 2, 2), Rush Yards: 19.5 (22.7 - 20, 1, 18, 30, 13)

• CHI RB D’Andre Swift | Rush Yards: 54.5 (67.1 - 54, 40, 54, 58, 98), Carries: 13.5 (14.5 - 13, 10, 9, 13, 18), Anytime TD: +145 (0.6 - 1, 0, 2, 0, 2)

MCBB

Arizona State (10-7, 1-3 Big 12) vs. No. 7 Houston (16-1, 4-0 Big 12)

• ASU (+16.5, -102), HOU (-16.5, -120): 82% of the money and 64% of the bets are with ASU

  • ATS | ASU (road): 2-2, HOU (home): 5-4

• Total (144.5) | ASU: 11-6 (80.8 ppg), HOU: 7-10 (77.2 ppg)

Penn State (9-8, 0-6 Big Ten) vs. Maryland (7-10, 0-6 Big Ten)

• PSU (+2.5, -102), UMD (-2.5, -120): 87% of the money and 62% of the bets are with UMD

  • ATS | PSU (road): 2-1, UMD (home): 3-5

• Total (146.5) | PSU: 8-9 (77.1 ppg), UMD: 11-6 (73.2 ppg)

Wichita State (10-8, 2-3 American) vs. South Florida (11-6, 3-1 American)

• WSU (+7.5, -110), USF (-7.5, -110): 62% of the money and 68% of the bets are with WSU

  • ATS | WSU (road): 3-2, USF (home): 4-3

• Total (155.5) | WSU: 7-10 (77.6 ppg), USF: 9-7 (90.5 ppg)

Florida Atlantic (12-6, 4-1 American) vs. Temple (11-6, 3-1 American)

• FAU (-1.5, -110), TEM (+1.5, -110): 74% of the money and 61% of the bets are with FAU

  • ATS | FAU (road): 3-2, TEM (home): 5-3

• Total (152.5) | FAU: 9-7 (83.6 ppg), TEM: 8-8 (75.9 ppg)

NBA

Magic (23-18) vs. Grizzlies (17-23)

• ORL (-4, -112), MEM (+4, -108): 53% of the money is with ORL but 51% of the bets are with MEM

  • ATS | ORL: 17-24, MEM: 17-23

• Total (229.5) | ORL: 21-20 (116.3 ppg), MEM: 16-24 (114.8 ppg)

Nets (12-27, 6-12 Away) vs. Bulls (19-22, 12-9 Home)

• BKN (+6, -108), CHI (-6, -112): 63% of the money and 55% of the bets are with BKN

  • ATS | BKN (road): 9-8-1, CHI (home): 11-10

• Total (221.5) | BKN: 14-25 (108.9 ppg), CHI: 18-23 (117.3 ppg)

Pelicans (10-34, 3-16 Away) vs. Rockets (24-15, 13-3 Home)

• NOP (+13, -110), HOU (-13, -110): 72% of the money and 60% of the bets are with NOP

  • ATS | NOP (road): 8-11, HOU (home): 7-9

• Total (228.5) | NOP: 24-20 (115.0 ppg), HOU: 19-20 (117.1 ppg)

NHL

Lightning (29-13-4, 17-4-4 Away) vs. Stars (27-12-9, 12-6-3 Home)

• TB (+1.5, -280), DAL (-1.5, +220): 76% of the money and 80% of the bets are with TB

  • ATS | TB (road): 16-9, DAL (home): 6-15

• Moneyline | TB -110, DAL -110: 62% of the money and 53% of the bets are with DAL

• Total (6.5) | TB: 24-22 (3.48 gpg), DAL: 23-25 (3.31 gpg)

5. Overtime

In the News

• It took a couple of extra days to reach an agreement, but the Giants signed fired Ravens coach John Harbaugh to a five-year deal. New York has only been to the playoffs once in the past nine seasons, while Harbaugh took Baltimore to the postseason six times in that stretch. The Giants were 4-13 this year, giving Harbaugh the No. 5 draft pick to help jumpstart the seemingly never-ending rebuilding project at the Meadowlands.

• The Falcons also made their head coaching choice yesterday, announcing they hired Kevin Stefanski, who was fired by the Browns earlier this month. Stefanski was selected as the NFL’s coach of the year twice in his six seasons in Cleveland, where he went 37-30 with two playoff appearances in his first four seasons but 8-26 in his final two. New Falcons’ President of Football Matt Ryan, the team’s former star quarterback, made the decision before the team hired a new general manager. So it wasn’t a surprise that the franchise also announced Stefanski will report to Ryan.

• Green Bay won’t be the next unexpected NFL head coaching opening, as ESPN is reporting that the Packers are extending coach Matt LaFleur’s contract, which was entering its final year. LaFleur has led Green Bay to the playoffs in six of his seven seasons, but after starting his career with the Packers with three-straight 13-win seasons and two NFC Championship game appearances, his team has finished with 8, 9, 11 and 9 wins in the past four years and is 1-3 in the postseason.

• The college football national championship will be decided on Monday when Indiana and Miami face off, but not much else in the sport will be clear other than who wins the title. The Associated Press runs through the athlete pay situation, transfer portal chaos, lawsuits, and potential federal legislation that will continue as the season ends.

• Two men’s college basketball teams that started the week undefeated both lost their second straight game yesterday: No. 2 Iowa State fell 79-70 at Cincinnati despite the Cyclones’ Milan Momcilovic’s career-high 34 points and No. 10 Vanderbilt was defeated at home by No. 19 Florida 98-94, vaulting the defending national champion Gators to the top of the SEC early in conference play.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 9am: Wolverhampton vs. Newcastle on USA

• 12pm: Magic vs. Grizzlies [NBA London Game] on Prime Video

• 2pm: Lightning vs. Stars on NHL Network

• 3pm: Texans vs. Patriots on ESPN/ABC

• 4pm: No. 12 Maryland vs. No. 3 UCLA [WCBB] on NBC

• 6:30pm: Rams vs. Bears on NBC

• 7pm: Australian Open on ESPN2 (through 3am)