Monday Night Football Insights + 4 of 5 NBA Games Have Spreads Within 4 Points

We also look at Cooper Flagg’s chances against a bottom-tier defense

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The NFL division races are becoming clearer

2. The Rundown: Two of the NFL’s biggest stars could be out into next season

3. Game of the Day: Steelers trying to stay ahead of Ravens but Fins have won 4 straight

4. By the Numbers: Four of five NBA matchups have spreads within four points

5. Overtime: DeBoer says he’s happy in Tuscaloosa

1. Leading Off

The Chiefs’ reign is officially over, as their 16-13 loss to the Chargers knocked them out of playoff contention after 10 appearances in a row. Even worse news for Kansas City is that quarterback Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and is likely going to be out into next season. That game aside, there were few upsets or surprises in Week 15, but the slate did bring some welcome clarity. Here’s where each division stands after yesterday’s action:

AFC East: The Bills came back from a 21-0 hole to beat the Patriots 35-31 and are now just one game back of New England, which had a 10-game winning streak snapped but is still favored to win the division. (NE -260, BUF +200)

AFC North: Baltimore shut out Cincinnati to improve to 7-7, a half game behind Pittsburgh, which plays Miami tonight. The Steelers and Ravens also play each other in the last game of the season. (BAL -120, PIT -110)

AFC South: The Jaguars won their fifth in a row (48-20 over the Jets) and the Texans won their sixth straight (40-20 against the Cardinals). These are two teams nobody wants to play right now. (JAX -165, HOU +145)

AFC West: The Broncos clinched a playoff berth with their NFL-best 11 win in a row and are two games up on the Chargers, who have one six of seven. The two teams play in the last game of the regular season. (DEN -750, LAC +600)

NFC East: Philadelphia had no trouble ending its three-game losing streak, blanking Las Vegas 31-0. The 9-5 Eagles play the Commanders twice in their last three games, with the Bills sandwiched in between, so 11 wins seems like a safe bet. The Cowboys home loss to the Vikings last night all but ended their postseason hopes. (PHI -20000)

NFC North: Chicago dominated the Browns while the Packers fell at Denver (and lost Micah Parsons for the season) and Lions lost to the Rams, so the Bears control their own destiny. The Bears and Packers play in Chicago on Saturday night. (GB -110, CHI +110, DET +1200)

NFC South: The Saints now have back-to-back wins against the division leaders, as they upset the Panthers to give the Buccaneers a renewed sense of hope as the two 7-7 teams face off twice in the next three weeks to decide who is going to the playoffs. (TB -320, CAR +250)

NFC West: This is the most stacked division in the NFL, as its the only one with three teams with double-digit wins — and all of them have multi-game winning streaks. The Rams (11-3) clinched a playoff berth, while the Seahawks (11-3) and 49ers (10-4) each won their fourth straight. It wasn’t easy for Seattle, though, as 44-year-old Philip Rivers led a Colts drive that resulted in a go-ahead field goal with 47 seconds left before the Seahawks frantically came back for the win. (LAR -170, SEA +220, SF +700)

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

Two of the NFL’s Biggest Stars Could Be Out Into Next Season After ACL Injuries

• Two of the biggest stars in the NFL both appear to have torn their ACLs on Sunday. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes was knocked out of the game with less than two minutes to go the Chiefs’ 16-13 loss to the Chargers, and an MRI confirmed the injury that could keep him out into next season. And Packers defensive end Micah Parsons’ non-contact injury in the third quarter of the Packers’ 34-26 loss to the Broncos hasn’t been confirmed, but reports are that the team is also expecting an ACL tear.

• The Commanders ended their eight game losing streak, but all that likely means is that it will be difficult for the struggling team to earn the first pick in next year’s NFL Draft. There are now six teams below Washington record-wise with three games to play, including three two-loss teams: the Giants, Titans and Raiders. The first tiebreaker for the draft order is lowest strength of schedule.

• According to the Associated Press, the University of Michigan is currently focused on Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham and Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz for its head coaching vacancy. Both will be difficult to lure to Ann Arbor, as Dillingham is an Arizona State grad and Scottsdale native, while Drinkwitz just agreed to a six-year contract extension two weeks ago.

• Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia appears to regret having posting on social media “F-All THE VOTERS,” after finishing second in the Heisman Trophy voting. Yesterday, he wrote a much longer, and less capitalized reaction, explaining, “To be so close to my dream and come up short was painful. I didn’t handle those emotions well at all and did not represent myself the way I wanted to.” The vote wasn’t close, as winner Fernando Mendoza earned 643 first-place votes and 2,362 points compared to Pavia’s 189 top-choice selections and 1,435 points.

• And with this year’s Heisman complete, ESPN’s Mark Schlabach looks ahead 15 players who could win the award next year. Schlabach includes Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton, Texas quarterback Arch Manning, USC quarterback Jayden Maiava, Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy, RB, and 10 others.

3. Game of the Day

Steelers Look to Stay Ahead of Ravens in AFC North, But Dolphins Have Won 4 Straight

The Steelers are in a tight fight with the Ravens for the AFC North, while the Dolphins have once again staged a second-half comeback. Miami has won four in a row to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. Neither team can afford a loss, but Pittsburgh has more margin for error. The Steelers are coming off of a much-needed win over the Ravens after two losses in a row, and aging quarterback Aaron Rodgers will certainly take the extra rest day ahead of this Monday Night matchup. Pittsburgh will be without star linebacker T.J. Watt, who underwent surgery to repair a partially collapsed lung.

Dolphins (6-7, 2-4 Away) vs. Steelers (7-6, 4-3 Home)
8:15pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: MIA (+3, -104), PIT (-3, -118)

  • 63% of the money and 64% of the bets are with the Steelers

  • ATS | MIA (road): 3-3, PIT (home): 3-3

• Moneyline: MIA +154, PIT -184

• Total (41.5): Over -112, Under -108

  • MIA: 6-7, PIT: 7-6

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa | Pass Yards: 192.5 (127, 157, 171, 173, 261), Pass TD: 1.5 (1, 0, 0, 2, 0), Pass Attempts: 28.5 (21, 23, 20, 21, 40)

• MIA RB De'Von Achane | Rush Yards: 79.5 (92, 134, 120, 174, 67), Rush Attempts: 17.5 (7, 22, 21, 22, 14), Anytime TD: -120 (1, 1, 0, 2, 0)

• PIT QB Aaron Rodgers | Pass Yards: 210.5 (284, 117, 116, 161, 203), Pass TD: 1.5 (1, 0, 1, 1, 1), Pass Attempts: 31.5 (34, 21, 15, 31, 35)

• PIT WR DK Metcalf | Receiving Yards: 53.5 (148, 32, 22, 49, 35), Receptions: 4.5 (7, 3, 5, 5, 3)

*Stats listed in parentheses are past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

4. By the Numbers

4 of 5 Games on NBA Slate Have Spreads Within 4 Points Tonight

NBA

• Pistons (20-5, 8-3 Away) vs. Celtics (15-10, 8-4 Home)

  • DET (+1.5, -106), BOS (-1.5, -115): 60% of the money and 53% of the bets are with the Celtics

    • ATS | DET (road): 6-5, BOS (home): 7-5

  • Total (229.5) | DET: 14-11, BOS: 12-13

• Raptors (15-11, 7-5 Away) vs. Heat (14-11, 10-3 Home)

  • TOR (+6, -110), MIA (-6, -110): 54% of the money is with the Heat but 60% of the bets are with the Raptors

    • ATS | TOR (road): 6-6, MIA (home): 8-5

  • Total (237.5): TOR: 11-15, MIA: 12-13

• Mavericks (10-16, 3-6 Away) vs. Jazz (9-15, 6-7 Home)

  • DAL (-2, -112), UTA (+2, -108): 73% of the money and 70% of the bets are with the Mavericks

    • ATS | DAL (road): 5-4, UTA (home): 9-4

  • Total (237.5) | DAL: 11-15, UTA: 15-9

• Rockets (16-6, 8-4 Away) vs. Nuggets (18-6, 6-4 Home)

  • HOU (+1.5, -114), DEN (-1.5, -106): 70% of the money and 61% of the bets are with the Nuggets

    • ATS | HOU (road): 9-3, DEN (home): 5-5

  • Total (234.5) | HOU: 13-9, DEN: 16-8

• Grizzlies (11-14, 5-7 Away) vs. Clippers (6-19, 3-7 Home)

  • MEM (+3.5, -112), LAC (-3.5, -108): 56% of the money and 53% of the bets are with the Clippers

    • ATS | MEM (road): 5-7, LAC (home): 1-9

  • Total (227.5) | MEM: 9-16, LAC: 13-12

NHL

• Senators (14-13-4, 8-7-2 Away) vs. Jets (15-15-1, 8-7-0 Home)

  • OTT +110, WPG -130: 86% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Winnipeg

• Kings (14-8-9, 10-2-5 Away) vs. Stars(21-7-5, 10-5-1 Home)

  • LA +120, DAL -142: 94% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Dallas

Players to Watch

• Mavericks F Cooper Flagg (@ Jazz)

  • Points: 18.5 (17.5 - 22, 19, 16, 22, 24), Reb: 6.5 (6.3 - 5, 5, 2, 6, 8), Ast: 4.5 (3.4 - 8, 3, 2, 2, 2)

  • Opponent (UTA - W1) | Points: 125.8 (29th), Reb: 43.9 (16th), Ast: 29.7 (29th)

• Raptors F Brandon Ingram (@ Heat)

  • Points: 22.5 (21.5 - 31, 30, 7, 20, 21), Reb: 5.5 (5.8 - 6, 4, 9, 7, 6), Ast: 3.5 (3.8 - 6, 3, 2, 7, 3)

  • Opponent (MIA - L4) | Points: 118.2 (22nd), Reb: 48.6 (29th), Ast: 27.0 (20th)

• Grizzlies F Jaylen Wells (@ Clippers)

  • Points: 10.5 (12.4 - 19, 16, 17, 20, 15), Reb: 4.5 (3.5 - 5, 5, 3, 1, 3), Ast: 2.5 (1.7 - 1, 3, 0, 2, 1)

  • Opponent (LAC - L3) | Points: 116.7 (17th), Reb: 43.0 (11th), Ast: 26.7 (17th)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

Quotable

“I have not spoken and have no interest in speaking with anyone else about any other job. I am fully committed to this program and look forward to continuing as head football coach at the University of Alabama.” — Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer after rumors started swirling that he was a candidate for the University of Michigan’s opening. DeBoer’s four losses in his first season at Alabama didn’t endear him to the fanbase and his season-opening loss to Florida State this year caused a meltdown, but the coach turned the season into a SEC championship game appearance and berth in the College Football Playoff.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 7pm: Pistons vs. Celtics on Peacock (or Panthers vs. Lightning on NHL Network)

• 8:15pm: Dolphins vs. Steelers on ESPN

• 9:30pm: Rockets vs. Nuggets on Peacock