CFP Semifinals Kick Off Tonight + Odds and Trends in NBA, NHL and MCBB Matchups

Miami is a 3.5-point favorite over Ole Miss, but bettors are with the Rebels

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: College Football Playoff continues over next two days

2. Game of the Day: Miami looks to shut down another high-powered offense in CFP

3. By the Numbers: Bettors are split on Bulls vs. Heat

4. Overtime: Saban’s outsized impact on the national title

1. Leading Off

The College Football Playoff continues over the next two days, with No. 10 Miami taking on No. 6 Ole Miss at the Fiesta Bowl in tonight’s first semifinal, and No. 5 Oregon getting a rematch against undefeated No. 1 Indiana in the second semifinal tomorrow at the Peach Bowl.

Miami and Indiana are both favored by 3.5. The Hurricanes have +160 odds at FanDuel to score the most points in the semifinal, while Oregon (+450) is least likely according to the sportsbook.

Indiana is still the significant favorite to win the national title at +126, with Oregon (+315), Miami (+340) and Ole Miss (+570) following. The Hoosiers would start as a 5.5-point favorite against the Hurricanes and a 7.5-point favorite against the Rebels.

— Abe Rakov

2. Game of the Day

Miami is Favored in CFP Semifinal, But Moneyline and Spread Bettors are Backing Ole Miss

Miami gives up the 4th-fewest points per game in college football (13.1) while only three teams scored more than Ole Miss this season (37.6). The Hurricanes are favored by 3.5 in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl, but both moneyline and spread bettors are backing the Rebels.

Ole Miss blew out Tulane to start its CFP run, then won an unbelievable back-and-forth game against No. 3 Georgia 39-34, avenging its only loss of the season. Miami was the only controversial pick of the CFP, jumping Notre Dame in the final poll despite neither team playing, but has proven the selection committee right. The Hurricanes won 10-3 at No. 7 Texas A&M in the first round then got ahead of defending national champion and No. 2 Ohio State 14-0 before halftime en route to a 24-14 win. The Buckeyes averaged nearly 35 points per game before getting shut down by the Hurricanes’ defense, while the Aggies averaged over 36.

No. 10 Miami (12-2) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (13-1)
7:30pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: MIA (-3.5, -102), MISS (+3.5, -120)

  • 59% of the money and 60% of the bets are with MISS

  • ATS | MIA: 9-5, MISS: 9-5

• Moneyline: MIA -158, MISS +134

• Total (52.5): Over -108, Under -112

  • MIA: 5-9, MISS: 7-7

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• UM QB Carson Beck | Pass Yards: 235.5 (236.6 - 138, 103, 267, 320, 291), Pass Attempts: 30.5 (28.4 - 26, 20, 29, 32, 27), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.9 - 1, 1, 3, 4, 3)

• UM RB Mark Fletcher Jr. | Rush Yards: 96.5 (78.9 - 90, 172, 30, 19, 84), Anytime TD: -220 (1.0 - 1, 0, 1, 1, 0)

• MISS QB Trinidad Chambliss | Pass Yards: 275.5 (281.5 - 362, 282, 359, 301, 333), Pass Attempts: 31.5 (31.4 - 46, 29, 34, 35, 33), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.6 - 2, 1, 4, 1, 3), Rush Yards: 23.5 (37.1 - 14, 36, 26, 10, -1)

• MISS RB Kewan Lacy | Rush Yards: 77.5 (104.6 - 98, 87, 143, 224, 49), Anytime TD: -210 (1.6 - 2, 1, 1, 3, 3)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. By the Numbers

Despite Having One of NBA’s Worst Records, Jazz Are 13-6 ATS at Home

NBA

• Pacers (6-31, 1-16 Away) vs. Hornets (13-24, 7-11 Home)

  • IND (+4, -112), CHA (-4, -108): 53% of the money is with CHA but the bets are 50/50

    • ATS | IND (road): 7-10, CHA (home): 11-7

  • Total (231.5) | IND: 15-22 (110.8 ppg), CHA: 14-23 (115.5 ppg)

• Heat (20-17, 7-11 Away) vs. Bulls (17-20, 10-9 Home)

  • MIA (-7, -110), CHI (+7, -110): 81% of the money is with MIA but 59% of the bets are with CHI

    • ATS | MIA (road): 10-8, CHI (home): 10-9

  • Total (238.5) | MIA: 17-20 (120.1 ppg), CHI: 16-21 (117.1 ppg)

• Cavaliers (21-17, 8-8 Away) vs. Timberwolves (24-13, 13-6 Home)

  • CLE (+2.5, -110), MIN (-2.5, -110): 66% of the money and 57% of the bets are with MIN

    • ATS | CLE (road): 6-10, MIN (home): 8-11

  • Total (240.5) | CLE: 17-21 (119.2 ppg), MIN: 17-20 (119.6 ppg)

• Mavericks (14-23, 4-12 Away) vs. Jazz (12-24, 8-11 Home)

  • DAL (-7.5, -106), UTA (+7.5, -114): 57% of the money and 73% of the bets are with UTA

    • ATS | DAL (road): 5-11, UTA (home): 13-6

  • Total (240.5) | DAL: 16-21 (113.1 ppg), UTA: 23-13 (119.8 ppg)

NHL

• Panthers (22-17-3, 8-8-0 Away) vs. Canadiens (24-13-6, 11-9-1 Home)

  • FLA (-1.5, +186), MON (+1.5, -235): The money is 50/50 but 76% of the bets are with MON

    • ATS | FLA (road): 6-10, MON (home): 8-13

  • Moneyline | FLA -130, MON +108: 68% of the money is with MON but 57% of the bets are with FLA

  • Total (6.5) | FLA: 23-19 (3.05 gpg), MON: 26-17 (3.33 gpg)

• Sabres (22-15-4, 9-10-2 Away) vs. Rangers (20-18-6, 5-10-4 Home)

  • BUF (-1.5, +205), NYR (+1.5, -260): 51% of the money is with BUF but 72% of the bets are with NYR

    • ATS | BUF (road): 9-12, NYR (home): 6-13

  • Moneyline | BUF -118, NYR -102: 78% of the money and 61% of the bets are with BUF

  • Total (6.5) | BUF: 18-23 (3.10 gpg), NYR: 16-28 (2.59 gpg)

• Maple Leafs (20-15-7, 5-10-2 Away) vs. Flyers (22-12-7, 12-5-4 Home)

  • TOR (+1.5, -230), PHI (-1.5, +184): 76% of the money is with PHI but 71% of the bets are with TOR

    • ATS | TOR (road): 6-11, PHI (home): 13-8

  • Moneyline | TOR +112, PHI -134: 82% of the money and 51% of the bets are with TOR

  • Total (5.5) | TOR: 24-18 (3.36 gpg), PHI: 23-18 (3.02 gpg)

MCBB

• Northwestern (8-6, 0-3 Big Ten) vs. No. 12 Michigan State (13-2, 3-1 Big Ten)

  • NU (+12.5, -105), MSU (-12.5, -115): 88% of the money and 82% of the bets are with MSU

    • ATS | NU: 5-9, MSU: 8-7

  • Total (142.5) | NU: 9-5 (80.4 ppg), MSU: 5-10 (79.1 ppg)

• Santa Clara (13-4, 4-0 WCC) vs. No. 8 Gonzaga (16-1, 4-0 WCC)

  • SC (+14.5, -102), GON (-14.5, -120): 75% of the money and 69% of the bets are with GON

    • ATS | SC: 8-8, GON: 10-7

  • Total (164.5) | SC: 10-6 (91.6 ppg), GON: 8-9 (82.5 ppg)

• Ohio State (10-4, 2-2 Big Ten) vs. Oregon (8-7, 1-3 Big Ten)

  • OSU (+2.5, -102), ORE (-2.5, -120): 63% of the money and 60% of the bets are with OSU

    • ATS | OSU: 5-9, ORE: 5-10

  • Total (152.5) | OSU: 7-7 (84.6 ppg), ORE: 9-6 (77.7 ppg)

4. Overtime

In the News

• Nick Saban hasn’t coached in two years, but he still has an outsized impact on this year’s College Football Playoff. All four head coaches worked for Saban at some point in their careers, though Oregon’s Dan Lanning has the weakest tie as a graduate assistant for one season. Indiana’s Curt Cignetti coached under the legend for five seasons beginning in 2007, Ole Miss’s Pete Golding also had five years learning from Saban, while Miami’s Mario Cristobal went to Tuscaloosa after being fired as Florida International’s coach and was an assistant head coach and recruiting coordinator for four seasons.

• Atlanta traded its longtime star Trae Young to Washington for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. Despite their struggles, the Wizards were reportedly the team Young was most interested in joining. Young has played just 10 games for the 18-21 Hawks, and is averaging fewer points than any season but his rookie campaign (19.3).

• Arch Manning’s roommate at Texas is transferring to arch-rival Oklahoma. Parker Livingstone, who had 29 catches for 516 yards and six touchdowns in his first season with the Longhorns, had earlier posted on social media his unhappiness with Texas’s plan to go to the transfer portal to find another top target for Manning.

• Cowboys owner Jerry Jones says his goal is to “retire as the owner that won the most Super Bowls.” He currently has three, while Patriots owner Robert Kraft has six. Jones said the offseason is important this year, and that “We’ll do some dramatic things.”

• Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss hopes that however tonight’s College Football Playoff semifinal goes, it’s not his last college football game. Chambliss has been denied an eligibility waiver from the NCAA to play a sixth season twice, with the NCAA saying he didn’t provide enough evidence of a medical hardship. But he’s trying a third time now. According to a Yahoo Sports report, “respiratory issues tied to an eventual diagnosis of enlarged tonsils and subsequent surgery — prevented him from playing the 2022 season.”

What to Watch (times ET)

• 3pm: Arsenal vs. Liverpool on Peacock

• 7:30pm: No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Ole Miss [CFP Semifinal - Fiest Bowl] on ESPN

• 8pm: Heat vs. Bulls on NBA TV

• 11:30pm: Santa Clara vs. No. 8 Gonzaga [MCBB] on ESPN2