Alabama vs. Oklahoma in 1st CFP Game + NBA Odds and More Bowl Insights

Boston’s Jaylen Brown is on a tear and faces a mediocre Heat defense tonight

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: College Football Playoff kicks off tonight

2. The Rundown: Thirteen No. 1 picks are still playing in the NFL

3. Game of the Day: Alabama visits Oklahoma in rematch with bigger stakes

4. By the Numbers: Knicks are NBA-best 13-1 ATS at home

5. Overtime: Pistons coach accuses referee of anti-Detroit bias

1. Leading Off

The College Football Playoff kicks off today with a rematch of a game that played a major role in determining how the overall playoff field ultimately turned out. No. 9 Alabama is in Norman to take on No. 8 Oklahoma, which almost certainly wouldn’t be in the playoff without its 23-21 win over the then-No. 4 Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. The Sooners’ revamped defense had 17 points off turnovers in that matchup. No. 1 Indiana is waiting for a Rose Bowl date with the winner.

The three other first round games take place tomorrow. No. 10 Miami plays No. 7 Texas A&M for the right to face No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss, without Lane Kiffin, feeds into the Sugar Bowl, where No. 3 Georgia awaits. And the biggest underdog of the playoff, No. 12 James Madison, is in Eugene to play No. 5 Oregon, with the winner getting No. 4 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl.

Ohio State is the favorite to win the title at +200 according to FanDuel, with the team the Buckeyes just got beaten by, Indiana, just behind at +310. SEC champion Georgia (+550) is next, followed by Oregon (+750), Texas Tech (+850) and Texas A&M (+2000). Oklahoma is the longest shot of the power schools at +5000.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

Of the 13 Former No. 1 Draft Picks Still in the NFL, 10 Are Quarterbacks

• There are 13 No. 1 overall picks still playing in the NFL, from 2009’s Matthew Stafford to Cam Ward, who was picked first in the most recent draft. Unsurprisingly, 10 are quarterbacks. The three top picks who don’t throw the ball for a living that are still around: Jaguars defensive end Travon Walker (2022), Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (2017) and Cowboys defensive end Jadeveon Clowney.

• Dallas defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is moving from the field to the coaches’ booth for the rest of the season, hoping a new view might help the Cowboys’ 31st-ranked defense. The former Bears head coach is in his first season as the coordinator in Dallas, and he didn’t exactly get a vote of confidence from his boss. When asked if how the Cowboys fare on defense the rest of the season could impact Eberflus’s job, team owner Jerry Jones told Dallas’ 105.3 The FAN, “How we play over these next few weeks will be a big criteria because I think, really, we’re at one of the peaks of our healthiness right now.”

• The University of Texas is bringing back Will Muschamp to lead its defense after head coach Steve Sarkisian fired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski. Muschamp was in Austin from 2008-2010 and was the head coach in waiting behind Mack Brown, but left for the top job at Florida in 2011. He was also the head coach at South Carolina and had been a defensive assistant at Georgia before taking a break this past season.

• WNBA players have decided that they are willing to strike if they can’t get what they deem is a fair deal from the league. The players are nearly united, as 98% voted yes on striking if necessary. “Time and again, the players’ thoughtful and reasonable approach has been met by the WNBA and its teams with a resistance to change and a recommitment to the draconian provisions that have unfairly restricted players for nearly three decades,” the players’ union said in a statement. The league and union have extended the deadline multiple times, which is now January 9th.

• Former heavyweight champion of the world Anthony Joshua is fighting influencer-turned-boxer Jake Paul tonight on Netflix. Paul started his boxing career taking on other influencer types before turning to UFC fighters trying a different sport. He lost a split decision to actual boxer Tommy Fury in 2023. While not in his prime, Joshua is still one of the most decorated active heavyweight fighters in the world and has aspirations for more legitimate matchups. “There’s no sporting teams in history that have gone together where it’s this big of a difference in terms of skill, experience, resume, height, weight, etc. So this is going to be the biggest upset in the history of sports and you guys get to witness it,” Paul said in the press conference ahead of the fight.

3. Game of the Day

Two Top-12 Defenses Face Off in First CFP Game of the Season, Which is an SEC Rematch

Two of the best defenses in college football face off again when No. 9 Alabama takes on No. 8 Oklahoma, this time in Norman with even bigger stakes. Both teams run the ball by committee, so we’re focusing on the passing game with two solid quarterbacks at the helm — a good enough game could even send Alabama signal caller Ty Simpson to the NFL. The Sooners are very slight home favorites.

No. 9 Alabama (10-3) vs. No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2)
8pm on ABC/ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: ALA (+1.5, -115), OU (-1.5, -105)

  • 61% of the money and 55% of the bets are with ALA

  • ATS | ALA 8-5, OU 7-5

• Moneyline: ALA -104, OU -112

• Total (41.5): Over -104, Under -118

  • ALA: 4-9, OU 2-10

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• ALA QB Ty Simpson | Pass Yards: 240.5 (212, 122, 147, 326-OU, 277), Pass Attempts: (39, 35, 16, 42-OU, 35), Pass TD: 1.5 (1, 3, 0, 1-OU, 1)

• ALA WR Germie Bernard | Rec Yards: 56.5 (62, 24, 71-OU, 79, 54), Receptions: 4.5 (6, 3, 7-OU, 3, 5), Anytime TD: +170 (1, 0, 0-OU, 0, 1)

• OU QB John Mateer | Pass Yards: 197.5 (318, 173, 138-ALA, 159, 223), Pass Attempts: (38, 30, 23-ALA, 29, 31), Pass TD: 1.5 (2, 2, 0-ALA, 0, 1), Rush Yards: 34.5 (27, 60, 23-ALA, 80, 17)

• OU WR Isaiah Sategna III | Rec Yards: 67.5 (121, 109, 26-ALA, 68, 131), Receptions: 4.5 (9, 3, 4-ALA, 6, 6), Anytime TD: +135 (1, 1, 0-ALA, 0, 1)

*Stats listed in parentheses are past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

4. By the Numbers

Brown Scored 30+ in 5 Straight for Celtics, Faces Below-Average Heat Defense

CFB

• Kennesaw State (10-3) vs. Western Michigan (9-4)

  • KS (+3.5, -118), WM (-3.5, -104): 53% of the money and 57% of the bets are with WM

    • ATS | KS: 9-4, WM: 9-3-1

  • Total (47.5) | KS: 6-7, WM: 6-7

• Memphis (8-4) vs. NC State (7-5)

  • MEM (+3.5, -110), NCST (-3.5, -110): 54% of the money and 55% of the bets are with NCST

    • ATS | MEM 8-4, NCST: 6-6

  • Total (56.5) | MEM: 6-6, NCST: 7-5

NBA

• Heat (15-12, 5-8 Away) vs. Celtics (15-11, 8-5 Home)

  • MIA (+6.5, -110), BOS (-6.5, -110): 63% of the money and 56% of the bets are with BOS

    • ATS | MIA (road): 7-6, BOS (home): 7-6

  • Total (231.5) | MIA: 12-15, BOS: 12-14

• 76ers (14-11, 6-4 Away) vs. Knicks (19-7, 13-1 Home)

  • PHI (+5, -110), Knicks (-5, -110): 54% of the money and 51% of the bets are with NYK

    • ATS | PHI (road): 8-2, NYK (home): 13-1

  • Total (229.5) | PHI: 12-13, NYK: 15-12

• Spurs (19-7, 8-5 Away) vs. Hawks (15-13, 5-6 Home)

  • SA (-3, -108), ATL (+3, -112): 90% of the money and 84% of the bets are with SA

    • ATS | SA (road): 5-7-1, ATL (home): 4-7

  • Total (241.5) | SA: 15-12, ATL: 17-11

• Bulls (11-15, 4-9 Away) vs. Cavaliers (15-13, 9-7 Home)

  • CHI (+7.5, -114), CLE (-7.5, -106): 56% of the money is with CLE but 56% of the bets are with CHI

    • ATS | CHI (road): 5-8, CLE (home): 4-12

  • Total (240.5) | CHI: 12-14, CLE: 12-16

• Thunder (25-2, 12-1 Away) vs. Timberwolves (17-10, 9-5 Home)

  • OKC (-8, -110), MIN (+8, -110): 72% of the money and 64% of the bets are with OKC

    • ATS | OKC (road): 7-6, MIN (home): 5-9

  • Total (230.5) | OKC: 14-13, MIN: 13-14

Players to Watch

• OKC G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (@ MIN)

  • Points: 31.5 (32.4 - 32, 29, 28, 33, 38), Reb: 4.5 (4.7 - 7, 4, 2, 5, 3), Ast: 6.5 (6.4 - 6, 5, 8, 6, 4)

  • Opponent (MIN - L1) | Points: 114.6 (11th), Reb: 43.0 (12th), Ast: 25.0 (8th)

• PHI G Tyrese Maxey (@ NYK)

  • Points: 26.5 (31.5 - 28, 12, 35, 35, 44), Reb: 3.5 (4.7 - 7, 4, 2, 6, 9), Ast: 6.5 (7.2 - 9, 4, 2, 6, 9)

  • Opponent (NYK - W6) | Points: 112.3 (4th), Reb: 41.3 (5th), Ast: 25.1 (9th)

• BOS G Jaylen Brown (vs. MIA)

  • Points: 29.5 (29.3 - 34, 30, 30, 30, 42), Reb: 6.5 (6.2 - 8, 3, 8, 8, 4), Ast: 5.5 (4.9 - 7 ,3, 5, 8, 4)

  • Opponent (MIA - W1) | Points: 116.9 (18th), Reb: 48.4 (29th), Ast: 27.1 (20th)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

Quotable

“That says to me that the referee is coming into the game not being objective. OK? That same referee, at halftime, I get my technical foul. I don't say anything to him.” — Detroit Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff, after saying that crew chief John Goble told him that “Night by night, this is how our interactions are.” The Pistons rallied to force overtime against the Mavericks, but Dallas won the extra period 6-4 for their sixth victory in eight games. “You had one guy who wanted to make the game about the referees when that's not what this should have been,” Bickerstaff added. “This was two teams competing their tails off, playing high-level basketball.”

What to Watch (times ET)

• 11am: Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan [Myrtle Beach Bowl] on ESPN

• 2:30pm: Memphis vs. NC State [Gasparilla Bowl] on ESPN

• 3pm: Swansea vs. Wrexham [English League Cup] on Paramount+

• 6:30pm: Seton Hall vs. Providence [MCBB] on FS1

• 7pm: 76ers vs. Knicks on Prime Video (or Canucks vs. Islanders on NHL Network)

• 8pm: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oklahoma [CFP] on ABC/ESPN

• 9:30pm: Thunder vs. Timberwolves on Prime Video

• 10:30pm: Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua on Netflix