NFL Saturday Doubleheader Insights + Today’s CFP First Round Matchup Odds

We also have three players to watch and a look at where bettors have their money

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: DeBoer quiets the doubters for another week

2. The Rundown: Gottlieb is signing off

3. Game of the Day: Packers are 1 of 5 teams that give up fewer than 300 yards/game, but lost star

4. By the Numbers: Huge majority of spread bettors are behind Eagles to win by a touchdown

5. Overtime: Lawrence has found his way with his third coach in Jacksonville

1. Leading Off

In August, a significant portion of Alabama fans wanted second-year coach Kalen DeBoer fired. The Crimson Tide had just been upset by Florida State to open the season a year after the Seminoles finished 2-10. DeBoer was coming off a disappointing start to his tenure, as he was 9-4 in his first season in Tuscaloosa and lost three times in the SEC, which Alabama hadn’t done since 2010.

Then the Crimson Tide went on an eight-game winning streak, including beating four teams in a row that were ranked in the top 16. But Alabama faltered to a 2-2 finish, including an uninspired 28-7 loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game that called into question whether Alabama should earn a bid to the College Football Playoff. At that point, DeBoer had seven losses in two seasons, or more than the legend he replaced, Nick Saban, suffered in his last four. In fact, other than his first two years in 2007 and 2008, Saban never lost more than four combined games in back-to-back seasons.

That’s why despite the appearance in the SEC title game and a playoff selection, DeBoer really needed the win he got last night against Oklahoma, which ended Alabama’s eight-game winning streak earlier this year. A first-round exit might have turned next season into a national championship or bust scenario for DeBoer.

Oklahoma got off to a 17-0 start, which undoubtedly caused Crimson Tide fans across the country to light up their group chats with calls for DeBoer’s firing again. But then Alabama scored 27 straight points, and now they’re headed to the Rose Bowl to take on No. 1 Indiana, a team that wasn’t tested outside of the Big Ten this year.

The Hoosiers have the Heisman trophy winner at quarterback and all the confidence in the world, especially at head coach, but Indiana hasn’t been in games like this before. Alabama, and DeBoer, have. The coach that was 25-3 in two seasons at Washington and is now 2-1 in playoff games has the talent to beat anyone. If DeBoer gets the upset in Pasadena, the fan base that has never really taken to him might finally have to give him a chance.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

Chiefs’ Days in Missouri Could Be Numbered, McDaniel’s Job in Miami Looks Safe, Gottlieb Signs Off

• The Chiefs are getting closer to moving across the border to Kansas with their lease in Missouri set to expire in January 2031. Kansas officials are meeting on Monday to decide whether to approve bonds that would fund up to 70% of a covered stadium in Kansas City, Kansas, according to the Associated Press. The Chiefs have played in Arrowhead Stadium in Missouri since 1972, and have been based in the state since 1963. The Kansas stadium location would be near the Kansas Speedway and Children’s Mercy Park, home to MLS club Sporting Kansas City.

• Despite all the chaos, and losses, surrounding the Dolphins, Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports reports that league sources believe coach Mike McDaniel will keep his job. McDaniel just benched franchise quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which most saw as a sign of strength, not weakness, from the coach. The Dolphins fired their general manager in October but made it clear McDaniel’s job was safe at least through the end of the season. Miami has been eliminated from playoff contention but has won five of seven games. McDaniel is 34-30 with the Dolphins, but has lost 18 of his past 32 games.

• Radio host turned college basketball coach Doug Gottlieb is taking a break from his media duties to “really dig in” on his coaching responsibilites. Gottlieb was hired by Green Bay prior to last season after over 20 years as a radio and television personality, but no college coaching experience. In a unique agreement, the school let him keep his show on Fox Sports. Gottlieb’s team finished 4-28 in his first season. Green Bay is off to a 6-7 start to this campaign after winning five of its past seven. As ESPN noted, “radio responsibilities prevented him from making it on the team bus for a trip to Indianapolis, so he flew there on his own instead. ‘I don't think that's what I want to do as a coach,’ Gottlieb said.”

• Victor Wembanyama now has a block in 100 straight games, becoming only the third NBA player to achieve the feat. In 16 games he’d catch Dikembe Mutombo and needs 45 to match Patrick Ewing’s NBA record of 145 games in a row. Wembanyama has 51 blocks in 15 games this season. Along with two blocks last night, he added 26 points on 10-15 shooting, 12 rebounds and three assists in just 21 minutes.

• The owners of the Rockets are in negotiations with the Connecticut Sun to buy the franchise and move it to Houston. Earlier this year, the Sun agreed to sell the team and move it to Boston, but the WNBA stopped the deal because it said the league controls team relocation. Houston had an original WNBA franchise, but it folded after the 2008 season. The Sun organization began in Orlando but was purchased in 2003 by the Mohegan tribe.

3. Game of the Day

Bears Look to Keep NFC North Lead, Close in on Playoff Berth Against Packers

One team is likely to be left out between the three NFC North teams vying for the playoffs, so all the remaining division matchups are even more vital than normal. The Bears are atop the division but still don’t have a ton of believers, while the Packers lost the biggest reason they have been considered Super Bowl contenders despite a lack of dominance — pass rusher Micah Parsons is out until next season. Green Bay won 28-21 when these teams faced off in Lambeau just two weeks ago in a game that showed Chicago could hang around with a team the pundits felt was much better. Including today, the Bears end the season facing three potential playoff contenders, so if they win the division they will have earned it.

Packers (9-4-1, 4-2-1 Away) vs. Bears (10-4, 5-1 Home)
8:20pm on FOX

The Odds

• Spread: GB (+1.5, -108), CHI (-1.5, -112)

  • 77% of the money and 65% of the bets are with CHI

  • ATS | GB (road): 2-5, CHI (home): 4-2

• Moneyline: GB: +106, CHI: -124

• Total (46.5): Over -112, Under -108

  • GB: 8-6, CHI: 6-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• GB QB Jordan Love | Pass Yards: 235.5 (276, 234-CHI, 234, 139, 174), Pass Attempts: 30.5 (40, 25-CHI, 30, 21, 24), Pass TD: 1.5 (1, 3-CHI, 4, 0, 2)

• GB WR Jayden Reed | Rec Yards: 39.5 (55, 31-CHI, 0, 45), Receptions: 3.5 (5, 4-CHI, 0, 3)

• CHI QB Caleb Williams | Pass Yards: 212.5 (242, 186-GB, 154, 239, 193), Pass Attempts: 32.5 (28, 35-GB, 36, 35, 32), Pass TD: 1.5 (2, 2-GB, 1, 3, 0), Rush Yards: 17.5 (13, 15-GB, 13, 21, 26)

• CHI TE Colston Loveland | Rec Yards: 43.5 (63, 29-GB, 28, 49, 40), Receptions: 4.5 (4, 4-GB, 3, 4, 3), Anytime TD: +185 (0, 1-GB, 0, 1, 0)

*Stats listed in parentheses are past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

4. By the Numbers

Spread Bettors Heavily Backing Eagles to Win By a Touchdown in Washington

NFL

• Eagles (9-5, 4-3 Away) vs. Commanders (4-10, 2-4 Home)

  • PHI (-7, -106), WAS (+7, -114): 88% of the money and 82% of the bets are with PHI

    • ATS | PHI (road): 4-3, WAS (home): 3-3

  • Total (44.5) | PHI: 5-9, WAS: 7-7

CFB

• No. 10 Miami (10-2) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1)

  • UM (+3.5, -122), TAMU (-3.5, +100): 52% of the money and 62% of the bets are with TAMU

    • ATS | UM (road): 2-2, TAMU (home): 2-5

  • Total (48.5) | UM: 5-7, TAMU: 8-4

• No. 11 Tulane (11-2) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1)

  • TUL (+17.5, -118), MISS (-18.5, -104): 68% of the money and 60% of the bets are with MISS

    • ATS | TUL (road): 3-3, MISS (home): 5-3

  • Total (57.5) | TUL: 4-9, MISS: 6-6

• No. 12 James Madison (12-1) vs. No. 5 Oregon (11-1)

  • JMU (+20.5, -102), ORE (-20.5, -120): 82% of the money and 75% of the bets are with ORE

    • ATS | JMU (road): 4-2, ORE (home): 5-2

  • Total (45.5) | JMU: 6-7, ORE: 6-6

NBA

• Rockets (16-8, 8-6 Away) vs. Nuggets (20-6, 8-4 Home)

  • HOU (+1, -108), DEN (-1, -112): 77% of the money and 74% of the bets are with DEN

    • ATS | HOU (road): 9-5, DEN (home): 7-5

  • Total (236.5) | HOU: 15-9, DEN: 18-8

• Celtics (16-11, 7-6 Away) vs. Raptors (17-11, 8-6 Home)

  • BOS (-1.5, -112), TOR (+1.5, -108): 87% of the money is with TOR but 51% of the bets are with BOS

    • ATS | BOS (road): 7-6, TOR (home): 4-10

  • Total (223.5) | BOS: 13-14, TOR: 11-17

• Suns (15-12, 6-7 Away) vs. Warriors (13-15, 7-4 Home)

  • PHX (+5.5, -112), GS (-5.5, -108): 65% of the money and 59% of the bets are with GS

    • ATS | PHX (road): 7-6, GS (home): 6-5

  • Total (227.5) | PHX: 12-15, GS: 15-13

MCBB

• No. 8 Houston (10-1) vs. No. 14 Arkansas (9-2)

  • HOU (-4.5, -110), ARK (+4.5, -110): 53% of the money and 59% of the bets are with ARK

    • ATS | HOU: 5-6, ARK: 8-3 (neutral court)

  • Total (144.5) | HOU: 6-5, ARK: 5-6

• No. 3 Duke (11-0) vs. No. 19 Texas Tech (8-3)

  • DUKE (-8.5, -110), TTU (+8.5, -110): 84% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Duke

    • ATS | DUKE: 7-4, TTU: 4-7 (neutral court)

  • Total (151.5) | DUKE: 2-9, TTU: 5-6

Players to Watch

• Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (@ Commanders)

  • Pass Yards: 217.5 (175, 240, 230, 289, 135), Pass Attempts: 28.5 (15, 40, 34, 39, 28), Pass TD: 1.5 (3, 0, 2, 1, 0), Rush Yards: 27.5 (39, 8, 31, 33, 31), Anytime TD: +100 (0, 0, 0, 2, 1)

  • Opponent (WAS - W1) | Opp Points: 26.8 (26th), Opp Total Yards: 382.6 (31st), Opp Pass Yards: 246.3 (29th)

• Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (vs. Commanders)

  • Rush Yards: 75.5 (78, 122, 56, 22, 83), Rush Attempts: 17.5 (22, 20, 13, 10, 26), Anytime TD: -125 (1, 1, 0, 0, 0)

  • Opponent (WAS - W1) | Opp Rush Yards: 136.3 (28th)

• Magic F Paolo Banchero (@ Jazz)

  • Points: 26.5 (20.8 - 26, 25, 18, 16, 19), Reb: 7.5 (8.4 - 16, 8, 7, 1, 6), Ast: 4.5 (4.1 - 10, 3, 4, 2, 2)

  • Opponent (UTA - L1) | Points: 126.8 (30th), Reb: 44.4 (18th), Ast: 29.5 (30th)

*Stats listed in parentheses past 5 games, most recent to least recent (NBA includes season average first).

5. Overtime

Quotable

“It all starts with him, and he’s doing a great job. Up or down, we’re going to rock with him regardless. So, wherever he goes, we’re going.” — Jaguars wide receiver Jakobi Meyers on his quarterback Trevor Lawrence. In his first year under head coach Liam Coen, who calls the plays in Jacksonville, Lawrence has led his team to a 10-4 record and first place in the AFC South. At 23 touchdown passes, he’s just two short of the career high he set in 2022 with three games to go.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 12pm: No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M [CFP] on ABC/ESPN

• 12:30pm: No. 22 St. John’s vs. Kentucky [MCBB] on CBS (followed by Ohio State vs. No. 12 UNC)

• 3pm: Everton vs. Arsenal on NBCSN

• 3:30pm: No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss [CFP] on TNT

• 5pm: Eagles vs. Commanders on FOX

• 5:30pm: No. 8 Houston vs. No. 14 Arkansas [MCBB] on CBS

• 7:30pm: No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon [CFP] on TNT

• 8pm: No. 3 Duke vs. No. 19 Texas Tech [MCBB] on ESPN

• 8:20pm: Packers vs. Bears on FOX

• 10:30pm: Lakers vs. Clippers on NBA TV