Thursday Night Football Finally Gets Biggest Game of the NFL Week (Insights + Player Trends)

We also look at where the Dolphins go from here after benching Tua Tagovailoa

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Dolphins are moving on … or sending a message

2. The Rundown: A youth movement in Washington

3. Game of the Day: Rams and Seahawks face off for top spot in NFC on TNF

4. By the Numbers: Two NFL teams that really need wins in Week 16

5. Overtime: The Chicago Bears are legitimately threatening to move to Indiana

1. Leading Off

The Dolphins announced they’re benching quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. That sentence would have been unthinkable 17 months ago when the team handed him a four-year, $212 million extension after a breakout season. Now it's reality, and either a very expensive admission of failure or a last resort to get through to their supposed franchise quarterback.

Coach Mike McDaniel didn't beat around the bush. He said the team needs “convicted quarterback play,” and that rookie Quinn Ewers gives them the best chance to win. Ewers was a seventh-round pick who has spent most of the season as the emergency third-string quarterback. Now he’s starting over a guy making $53 million per year. This isn’t just changing the depth chart, it’s a potentially franchise-altering move.

The numbers tell a brutal story. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with 15 interceptions and ranks 30th in adjusted QBR. He’s 12-13 since signing the extension in July 2024. That’s obviously not the return on investment the team expected. The Dolphins are already out of the playoffs, which makes Sunday's game against Cincinnati pretty meaningless. So why does McDaniel even care who gives his team the best chance to win the game? Why publicly humiliate the face of the franchise? The Dolphins must be considering moving on from Tagovailoa for good or else none of this makes sense.

Here's the problem: It would cost Miami $99 million in dead money if they cut him outright. Even trading him would leave $45 million in dead cap space, and good luck finding a team willing to take on his contract after watching him get benched for a seventh-rounder. The Dolphins are stuck. They can keep paying Tagovailoa to hold a clipboard or take a financial hit that would cripple their roster for years.

McDaniel wouldn’t say if Ewers will start beyond this week. He also wouldn’t comment on Tagovailoa’s long-term future with the team. That silence speaks volumes, though McDaniel’s future with the team is far from settled too — so he genuinely might not have the answers. Either way, the Dolphins bet big on Tagovailoa, and right now, that bet is losing badly.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

CFP Scheduling Headaches, Ward Wants in on Titans’ Coaching Search, Nationals’ Youth Movement

• While it feels a lot longer, there’s only a one-week break between the conference championship games and the start of the College Football Playoff, which begins tomorrow night with No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma. Yes it already has a $1.3 billion annual television contract, but the CFP is still trying to figure out where it fits into the December schedule. For the second year in a row, multiple first round games will go up against the NFL’s Saturday slate. CFP organizers know that’s not a winning hand for them, so they put their two worst matchups in those slots: No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon. The NFL is countering with major-draws: the Eagles vs. Commanders and Packers vs. Bears, more evidence that they don’t care to help their collegiate counterparts as they figure out the path forward for their still-new playoff format

• With just three weeks left in the NFL’s regular season, it’s not just the playoffs coming down to the wire: Next year’s draft order is still very much in flux. ESPN’s latest projection model has the Raiders “earning” the first pick, Browns going second and Titans third. Check out the article to read the full analysis and see each team’s chances of picking first.

• On the subject of Titans draft picks, their No. 1 overall pick from last year, quarterback Cam Ward, said he wants to be very involved in the team’s coaching search: “Every coach who's going to get the opportunity to come here, I want to meet them, have conversations throughout the whole process with them because that's someone that I'm going to be here with for that time.” Tennessee fired head coach Brian Callahan just six games into Ward’s career in what was the coach’s second season at the helm (he was 4-19). The Titans were 1-5 at the time Callahan was fired and have won just one game since.

• The Nationals are set to hire 31-year-old Ani Kilambi to be the club’s new general manager. Kilambi is currently an assistant general manager with the Phillies and was in the Rays organization before that. He’ll be part of a youth movement in Washington, as his boss is another young executive, 35-year-old president of baseball operations Paul Toboni, who hired 33-year-old Blake Butera as the team’s manager. The Nationals finished 66-96 this past season, last in the NL East with the second-worst record in the National League.

• The No. 1 men’s tennis player in the world and the only coach he’s had as a professional are going their separate ways. Carlos Alcaraz announced he’s leaving coach Juan Carlos Ferrero, a former world No. 1 himself who mentored the 22-year-old for the past seven years. Alcaraz won six Grand Slams and 24 titles overall under Ferrero’s guidance. “I wish I could have continued. I am convinced that good memories and good people always find a way to cross paths again,” Ferrero wrote on Instagram.

3. Game of the Day

Seahawks Give Up 2nd-Fewest Points Per Game (17.3), Rams Allow 3rd-Lowest Total (18.6)

The Rams and Seahawks are two of the most balanced teams in the NFL, both at 11-3 and with top-3 scoring defenses and top-5 scoring offenses. Los Angeles has already clinched a playoff spot and is aiming not only for a division title, but also the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Seattle can take the lead in both and control its destiny with a home win, and comes into tonight’s matchup as a slight favorite. The Rams won 21-19 when these teams played in Los Angeles about a month ago.

Rams (11-3, 5-2 Away) vs. Seahawks (11-3, 5-2 Home)
8:15pm on Prime Video

The Odds

• Spread: LAR (+1.5, -112), SEA (-1.5, -108)

  • 54% of the money and 66% of the bets are with LAR

  • ATS | LAR (road): 4-2, SEA (home): 4-3

• Moneyline: LAR +108, SEA -126

• Total (42.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • LAR: 7-7, SEA: 8-6

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• LAR QB Matthew Stafford | Pass Yards: 228.5 (368, 281, 243, 273, 130-SEA), Pass Attempts: 33.5 (38, 31, 28, 35, 28-SEA), Pass TD: 1.5 (2, 3, 2, 3, 2-SEA)

• LAR WR Puka Nacua | Rec Yards: 91.5 (181, 167, 72, 97, 75-SEA), Receptions: 7.5 (9, 7, 6, 7, 7-SEA), Anytime TD: +110 (0, 2, 0, 0, 0-SEA)

• LAR RB Kyren Williams | Rush Yards: 55.5 (78, 84, 72, 46, 91-SEA), Carries: 13.5 (15, 13, 13, 12, 12-SEA), Anytime TD: +125 (2, 1, 1, 0, 1-SEA)

• SEA QB Sam Darnold | Pass Yards: 223.5 (271, 249, 128, 244, 279-LAR), Pass Attempts: 30.5 (36, 30, 26, 26, 44-LAR), Pass TD: 1.5 (0, 3, 0, 2, 0-LAR)

• SEA WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Rec Yards: 89.5 (113, 92, 23, 167, 105-LAR), Receptions: 6.5 (7, 7, 2, 8, 9-LAR), Anytime TD: +115 (0, 2, 0, 2, 0-LAR)

• SEA RB Kenneth Walker III | Rush Yards: 45.5 (17, 29, 56, 71, 67-LAR), Carries: 12.5 (9, 10, 13, 11, 16-LAR), Anytime TD: +185 (0, 0, 0, 0, 1-LAR)

*Stats listed in parentheses are past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

4. By the Numbers

Despite 2-4 Road ATS Record, Early Bettors Back Chargers in Must-Win for Cowboys in Dallas

NBA

• Pistons (21-5, 9-3 Away) vs. Mavericks (10-17, 7-9 Home)

  • DET (-5.5, -110), DAL (+5.5, -110): 70% of the money and 60% of the bets are with DET

    • ATS | DET (road): 7-5, DAL (home): 8-8

  • Total (230.5) | DET: 14-12, DAL: 12-15

• Magic (15-11, 5-6 Away) vs. Nuggets (19-6, 7-4 Home)

  • ORL (+8, -110), DEN (-8, -110): 66% of the money and 59% of the bets are with DEN

    • ATS | ORL (road): 6-5, DEN (home): 6-5

  • Total (233.5) | ORL: 14-12, DEN: 17-8

• Warriors (13-14, 6-10 Away) vs. Suns (14-12, 8-5 Home)

  • GS (-2.5, -110), PHX (+2.5, -110): 71% of the money and 61% of the bets are with GS

    • ATS | GS (road): 7-9, PHX (home): 9-4

  • Total (230.5) | GS: 15-12, PHX: 12-14

• Lakers (18-7, 11-3 Away) vs. Jazz (10-15, 7-7 Home)

  • LAL (-7, -110), UTA (+7, -110): 68% of the money and 65% of the bets are with LAL

    • ATS | LAL (road): 10-4, UTA (home): 10-4

  • Total (242.5) | LAL: 17-8, UTA: 16-9

CFB

• Missouri State (7-5) Arkansas State (6-6)

  • MSU (+1.5, -120), ASU (-1.5, -102): 62% of the money is with MSU but 53% of the bets are with ASU

    • ATS | MSU: 7-5, ASU: 8-4

  • Total (54.5) | MSU: 4-8, ASU: 4-8

NFL Week 16

Today we’re looking ahead at two games where the home team is favored and really needs a win against another team in playoff contention:

• Chargers (10-4, 4-2 Away) vs. Cowboys (6-7-1, 4-2-1 Home)

  • LAC (+2.5, -112), DAL (-2.5, -108): 69% of the money and 68% of the bets are with LAC

    • ATS | LAC (road): 2-4, DAL (home): 4-3

  • Total (49.5) | LAC: 6-8, DAL: 9-5

• Steelers (8-6, 3-3 Away) vs. Lions (8-6, 5-2 Home)

  • PIT (+6.5, -102), DET (-6.5, -120): 90% of the money and 71% of the bets are with DET

    • ATS | PIT (home): 2-4, DET (road): 4-3

  • Total (51.5) | PIT: 7-7, DET: 9-5

Players to Watch

• Spurs G De’Aaron Fox (vs. Wizards)

  • Points: 21.5 (23.9 - 16, 22, 20, 14, 24), Reb: 3.5 (3.6 - 2, 2, 4, 4, 5), Ast: 5.5 (6.2 - 9, 4, 3, 7, 9)

  • Opponent (WAS - W1) | Points: 126.7 (30th), Reb: 48.8 (30th), Ast: 29.5 (30th)

• Lakers G Luka Doncic (@ Jazz)

  • Points: 35.5 (34.7 - 29, 35, 31, 38, 34), Reb: 8.5 (8.7 - 3, 5, 15, 11, 12), Ast: 8.5 (8.8 - 6, 8, 11, 5, 7)

  • Opponent (UTA - W2) | Points: 126.1 (29th), Reb: 43.3 (17th), Ast: 29.4 (29th)

• Rockets F Kevin Durant (@ Pelicans)

  • Points: 24.5 (24.8 - 25, 16, 27, 28, 24), Reb: 4.5 (4.6 - 5, 1, 1, 4, 3), Ast: 3.5 (4.0 - 7, 3, 3, 8, 8)

  • Opponent (NO - W2) | Points: 122.8 (28th), Reb: 44.5 (19th), Ast: 28.8 (27th)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

Quotable

“In addition to Arlington Park, we need to expand our search and critically evaluate opportunities throughout the wider Chicagoland region, including Northwest Indiana. This is not about leverage.” — Chicago Bears president and CEO Kevin Warren. The team has been looking for a site for a new stadium for years and purchased a $197 million property in the Chicago suburb of Arlington Heights in 2023. But after continued tax fights with the city, the Bears zeroed in on a space closer to their current home of Soldier Field, which was was built in 1924 and redone in 2003. The franchise switched course again at the beginning of this season, saying Arlington Heights was their focus and they hoped to break ground by the end of 2025. But now they can’t reach an agreement with state lawmakers over different tax issues, so the the Bears are considering a different state.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 2pm: Napoli vs Milan [Italian Supercoppa] on Paramount+

• 8pm: Clippers vs. Thunder on NBA TV

• 8:15pm: Rams vs. Seahawks on Prime Video

• 9pm: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State [Xbox Bowl] on ESPN2