7 MNF Bets to Watch + Knicks vs. Heat Insights

We also take a look at the early NFL Week 12 spreads

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Is the Chiefs’ semi-dynasty now over?

2. Bets to Watch: Dallas wide receivers should get opportunities tonight

3. Game of the Day: Cowboys at Raiders on Monday Night Football

4. By the Numbers: Looking ahead at early spreads in Week 12 in the NFL

5. Overtime: Oklahoma vaults up rankings and into CFP contention

1. Leading Off

The Chiefs finally lost enough to be supplanted as Super Bowl LX favorites. After yesterday’s 22-19 defeat in Denver, Kansas City fell to 5-5 and is now in a tie for fourth odds-wise with Indianapolis and Detroit. The defending champion Eagles lead the way at +500, followed by the Rams (+600) and Bills (+800). The Chiefs, who have won in the AFC West nine years in a row, are third in their division, two wins behind the Chargers and four behind the Broncos.

In other Week 11 action, the Rams took the lead in the NFC West after jumping out to a 14-3 first quarter lead over the Seahawks before hanging on for a 21-19 win. The Bills outscored the Buccaneers 23-12 in the second half to win 44-32 (behind six total touchdowns from quarterback Josh Allen) and stay just one win behind the Patriots at 7-3. The Chargers got blown out in Jacksonville (35-6), the Bears improved to 7-3 with an upset of the Vikings in Minnesota and are now leading the NFC North, and the Panthers are back over .500 and a half game out of first in the NFC South after a 30-27 OT win in Atlanta.

The Patriots and Broncos have the longest winning streaks in the league at eight games, followed by the Rams at five and Ravens at four. On the other end of the spectrum, the Commanders have now lost six straight after falling in overtime to Miami in Madrid, but somehow they’re still ahead of the Giants in the NFC East, as New York has lost five straight (three by a touchdown or less). The Titans and Falcons have also lost five in a row.

— Abe Rakov

A free newsletter with the marketing ideas you need

The best marketing ideas come from marketers who live it.

That’s what this newsletter delivers.

The Marketing Millennials is a look inside what’s working right now for other marketers. No theory. No fluff. Just real insights and ideas you can actually use—from marketers who’ve been there, done that, and are sharing the playbook.

Every newsletter is written by Daniel Murray, a marketer obsessed with what goes into great marketing. Expect fresh takes, hot topics, and the kind of stuff you’ll want to steal for your next campaign.

Because marketing shouldn’t feel like guesswork. And you shouldn’t have to dig for the good stuff.

Subscribe Free

2. Bets to Watch

Lamb has 30 Targets Over Past 3 Games, Averaged 14.2 Yards per Catch

By Craig Williams

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb over 82.5 yards (-152 at Sleeper)
Lamb has drawn 30 targets over his past three games and is averaging 14.2 yards per catch over that span. The Raiders have been among the friendliest…

3. Game of the Day

MNF Matchup Looks Like Snoozer, But Cowboys Still Have Outside Shot at Run

The power of the NFL is that even this mediocre matchup qualifies as the game of the day. To be fair, neither Dallas nor Las Vegas are truly as bad as their records suggest — bad luck has been involved as well. The Cowboys would move up to 10th in the NFC with a win but still a far cry from the 7th spot and a trip to the playoffs.

Cowboys (3-5-1, 1-4 Away) vs. Raiders (2-7, 1-3 Home)
8:15pm on ABC/ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: Cowboys (-3.5, -105), Raiders (+3.5, -115

  • 85% of the money and 83% of the bets are with Dallas

  • DAL: 4-5, LV: 4-5

• Moneyline: Cowboys -194, Raiders +162

  • 87% of the money and 90% of the bets are with Dallas

• Total (50.5): Over -104, Under -118

  • DAL: 6-3, LV: 3-6

  • 51% of the money and 55% of the bets are on the under

Players to Watch

• Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: 228-329 (69.3%), 2,319 yards, 17 TD, 6 INT, 98.8 rating

• Raiders QB Geno Smith: 178-267 (66.7%), 1,844 yards, 11 TD, 12 INT, 81.4 rating

• Cowboys WR George Pickens: 49 receptions (72 targets), 764 yards (15.6 average), 6 TD, 42 first downs, 2 fumbles (0 lost)

• Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty: 143 carries, 547 yards (3.8 average), 4 TD, 23 receptions, 136 receiving yards, 3 receiving TD, 2 fumbles (1 lost)

• Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb: 35 receptions (54 targets), 491 yards (14.0 average), 1 TD, 19 first downs, 0 fumbles

• Raiders DE Maxx Crosby: 37 tackles (23 solo), 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 INT, 6 pass deflections, 12 stuffs

Props (totals all over/under -114 at FanDuel)

• Prescott passing yards: 254.5

• Smith passing yards: 231.5

• Lamb receiving yards: 86.5

• Pickens receiving yards: 64.5

• Bowers receiving yards: 72.5

• J. Williams rushing yards: 75.5

• Jeanty rushing yards: 63.5

• Prescott rushing yards: 10.5

• Prescott and Smith to each record 15+ passing yards in each quarter: -110

4. By the Numbers

Ten Week 12 NFL Matchups Where 60%+ of Early Spread Bettors Back a Team

NBA

• Pacers (+10.5, -110) vs. Pistons (-10.5, -110): 78% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Detroit

  • IND: 5-8, DET: 9-4

• Hornets (+8, -106) vs. Raptors (-8, -114): 66% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Toronto

  • CHA: 6-7-0, TOR: 7-5-1

• Knicks (+1.5, -106) vs. Heat (-1.5, -114): 62% of the money and 63% of the bets are with New York

  • NYK: 8-4-0, MIA: 8-4-1

• Thunder (-17.5, -110) vs. Pelicans (+17.5, -110): 80% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Oklahoma City

  • OKC: 8-6-0, NOP: 5-6-1

Early Week 12 NFL

• Bills (-3.5, -115) vs. Texans (+3.5, -105): 76% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Buffalo

  • BUF: 4-6, HOU: 4-6

• Colts (+3.5, -106) vs. Chiefs (-3.5, -114): 64% of the money and 63% of the bets are with Indianapolis

  • IND: 7-3, KC: 5-5

• Patriots (-7, -105) vs. Bengals (+7, -115): 91% of the money and 72% of the bets are with New England

  • NE: 8-3, CIN: 3-7

• Jets (+14.5, -118) vs. Ravens (-14.5, -104): 61% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Baltimore

  • NYJ: 5-5, BAL: 5-5

• Seahawks (-12.5, -110) vs. Titans (+12.5, -110): 82% of the money and 83% of the bets are with Seattle

  • SEA: 8-2, TEN: 4-6

• Giants (+10.5, -105) vs. Lions (-10.5, -115): 95% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Detroit

  • NYG: 5-6, DET: 6-3

• Browns (+3, -108) vs. Raiders (-3, -112): 76% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Cleveland

  • CLE: 4-6, LV: 4-5

• Jaguars (-2.5, -115) vs. Cardinals (+2.5, -105): 76% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Jacksonville

  • JAX: 5-5, ARI: 5-5

• Eagles (-3.5, -120) vs. Cowboys (+3.5, -102): 93% of the money and 83% of the bets are with Philadelphia

  • PHI: 6-3, DAL: 4-5

• Panthers (+7, -120) vs. 49ers (-7, -102): 75% of the money and 67% of the bets are with San Francisco

  • CAR: 7-4, SF: 6-5

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Alabama dropped six spots to No. 10 in the AP college football poll after falling at home to Oklahoma, which moved up three spots to 8th. Georgia climbed one spot to 4th after its win against Texas and now has a shot to make the SEC title game. The Longhorns had the biggest drop of the week, falling seven places to 17th.

• ESPN runs through every offense in the NFL to see what has gone right and wrong so far, with a focus on new playcallers.

• Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders had a rough debut filling in for injured starter Dillon Gabriel in the second half, going 4-16 for 47 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. He was also sacked twice for 27 yards. “I don't think I played good,” Sanders said after the game, during which fans chanted “We want Shedeur,” when Gabriel struggled in the first half before behing knocked out of the game with a concussion.

• Mavericks Forward Anthony Davis will be out another 7-10 days in what is turning into a nightmare season for Dallas, CBS Sports reports. He’s missed the past eight games with a calf strain.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Bucks vs. Cavaliers on Peacock

• 8:15pm: Cowboys vs. Raiders on ABC/ESPN

• 10pm: Oregon State vs. Oregon [NCAAM] on FS1