Trends and Insights for Today’s Bowl Games and NBA Matchups

We also give you the rundown on the two high-profile quarterbacks in action

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: What does the V in MVP stand for in the NFL?

2. Game of the Day: Pistons vs. Lakers in the nightcap

3. By the Numbers: Three bowl games on tap woth two high-profile QBs playing

4. Scouting Report: Celtics’ Brown hasn’t scored below 30 points in December

5. Overtime: A Texas oil billionaire’s mission to fix college sports

1. Leading Off

Former NFL MVP Cam Newton argued on ESPN’s First Take yesterday that Browns defensive end Myles Garrett should be named the league’s Most Valuable Player. He wouldn’t even give his No. 2 pick because he didn’t want to dilute his argument. It caused quite a stir on the show and across social media.

Nearly every year, the debate about what valuable means in MVP comes up in the NFL. Lately, it’s been an award for the league’s best quarterback. The last time a player that played a different position won was in 2012 when Vikings running back Adrian Peterson broke a five-year streak of quarterbacks.

There’s clearly no player more valuable to the Browns than Garrett. He changes how coaches gameplan against his team and has a huge impact every time the opposing offense is on the field. Garrett has 59 tackles on the season, a whopping 42 of them solo, and three forced fumbles. Most impressively, he’s earned 22 sacks, just a half-sack behind T.J. Watt and Michael Strahan’s record and 5.5 more than any other player this season.

But in a best-case scenario, his potentially record-setting effort added just four wins to what the Browns would have had without him — because Cleveland has just four wins total. There’s no way to prove whether the Browns would have four, two, or no victories without Garrett (and it’s especially hard to give a defensive end credit for a 31-6 win over the Dolphins). But even if you say he’s responsible for each victory, how valuable can any player on a four-win team be?

Former Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor is the last, and one of only two, defensive players to be named the NFL’s MVP, and that was back in the 1986 season. New York won the Super Bowl that year.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

James is Rounding Into Form But Wins Aren’t Following for Lakers

The Pistons are still on top of the Eastern Conference, but have come down to earth since their 13-game winning streak that started at the end of October. The Lakers have been up-and-down since weathering the start of the season without LeBron James, as they’ve lost 4 of 7 games. Los Angeles won its first four games with James in the lineup, though the competition wasn’t stellar: Dallas, Utah twice, and the Clippers. Since then, the Lakers are just 5-5 with the 41-year-old on the court. James has picked up his scoring lately, averaging 25.8 over his past six games.

Pistons (24-8, 11-6 Away) vs. Lakers (20-10, 8-5 Home)
10:30pm on NBC

The Odds

• Spread: DET (-3, -106), Lakers (+3, -114)

  • 59% of the money and 66% of the bets are with LAL

  • ATS | DET (road): 8-9, Lakers (home): 10-7

• Moneyline: DET -144, LAL +122

• Total (231.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • DET: 16-16, LAL: 19-11

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Pistons G Cade Cunningham | Points: 25.5 (26.5 - 27, 29, 23, 14, 22), Reb: 5.5 (6.3 - 5, 5, 7, 6, 10), Ast: 9.5 (9.6 - 9, 17, 14, 9, 10)

• Pistons C Jalen Duren | Points: 16.5 (18.2 - 18, 11, 23, 26, 19), Reb: 10.5 (10.9 - 14, 4, 13, 10, 11), Ast: 1.5 (1.8 - 2, 0, 4, 2, 2)

• Lakers G Luka Doncic | Points: 32.5 (33.7 - 34, 25, 12, 45, 29), Reb: 7.5 (8.3 - 5, 5, 5, 11, 3), Ast: 7.5 (8.6 - 7, 7, 2, 14, 6)

• Lakers F LeBron James | Points: 22.5 (20.5 - 24, 18, 23, 36, 28), Reb: 5.5 (4.9 - 3, 2, 2, 4, 7), Ast: 6.5 (6.7 - 5, 5, 6, 3, 10)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

3. By the Numbers

Aguilar Set to Play for Vols, Jazz are 13-5 ATS at Home Despite 8-10 Record

CFB

• Coastal Carolina (6-6) vs. Louisiana Tech (7-5)

  • CCAR (+9.5, -106), LATECH (-9.5, -114): 79% of the money and 58% of the bets are with LATECH

    • ATS | CCAR: 5-7, LATECH: 8-4

  • Total (51.5) | CCAR: 9-3 (22.8 ppg), LATECH: 5-7 (27.7 ppg)

• Tennessee (8-4) vs. Illinois (8-4)

  • UT (-3.5, -104), ILL (+3.5, -118): 81% of the money and 80% of the bets are with UT

    • ATS | UT: 5-7, ILL: 8-4

  • Total (62.5) | UT: 8-4 (40.8 ppg), ILL: 5-7 (29.3 ppg)

• No. 16 USC (9-3) vs. TCU (8-4)

  • USC (-6.5, -114), TCU (+6.5, -106): 80% of the money and 72% of the bets are with USC

    • ATS | USC: 6-6, TCU: 6-6

  • Total (55.5) | USC: 6-6 (36.5 ppg), TCU: 6-6 (30.8 ppg)

NBA

• 76ers (16-14, 7-6 Away) vs. Grizzlies (15-17, 7-8 Home)

  • PHI (+1, -112), MEM (-1, -108): 54% of the money is with MEM but 61% of the bets are with PHI

    • ATS | PHI (road): 9-4, MEM (home): 7-8

  • Total (232.5) | PHI: 14-16 (115.7 ppg), MEM: 12-20 (115.3 ppg)

• Celtics (19-12, 9-7 Away) vs. Jazz (12-19, 8-10 Home)

  • BOS (-8.5, -110), UTA (+8.5, -110): 74% of the money and 58% of the bets are with UTA

    • ATS | BOS (road): 9-7, UTA (home): 13-5

  • Total (241.5) | BOS: 14-17 (116.5 ppg), UTA: 20-11 (120.5 ppg)

• Kings (8-24, 3-14 Away) vs. Clippers (10-21, 6-8 Home)

  • SAC (+9.5, -108), LAC (-9.5, -112): 56% of the money and 51% of the bets are with LAC

    • ATS | SAC (road): 7-10, LAC (home): 4-10

  • Total (223.5) | SAC: 14-18 (111.7 ppg), LAC: 15-16 (111.5 ppg)

NHL

• Islanders (21-14-4, 9-7-2 Away) vs. Blackhawks (14-18-6, 7-8-3 Home)

  • NYI (-1.5, +164), CHI (+1.5, -205): 76% of the money is with NYI but 55% of the bets are with CHI

    • ATS | NYI (road): 12-6, CHI (home): 13-5

  • Total (5.5) | NYI: 17-22 (2.77 gpg), CHI: 17-21 (2.76 gpg)

• Devils (20-16-2, 10-9-0 Away) vs. Maple Leafs (17-15-6, 12-5-5 Home)

  • NJ -115, TOR -104: 81% of the money is with NJ but the bets are 50/50

  • Total (6.5) | NJ: 17-21 (2.71 gpg), TOR: 22-16 (3.26 gpg)

MCBB

• Florida State (7-6, 0-0 ACC) vs. No. 12 North Carolina (12-1, 0-0 ACC)

  • FSU (+15.5, -102), UNC (-15.5, -120): 59% of the money and 81% of the bets are with UNC

    • ATS | FSU: 7-6, UNC: 8-5

  • Total (160.5) | FSU: 5-8 (85.0 ppg), UNC: 3-10 (81.4 ppg)

• No. 16 Louisville (10-2, 0-0 ACC) vs. California (12-1, 0-0 ACC)

  • LOU (-5.5, -115), CAL (+5.5, -105): 88% of the money and 78% of the bets are with LOU

    • ATS | LOU: 8-4, CAL: 7-5

  • Total (158.5) | LOU: 6-6 (91.6 ppg), CAL: 5-7 (83.1 ppg)

4. Scouting Report

More Will Be on USC’s Maiava With Trojan Opt-Outs, Celtics Brown is on Scoring Run

• Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar (vs. Illinois)

  • Pass Yards: 287.0 (299, 204, 204, 393, 396), Pass Attempts: 32.2 (44, 22, 23, 45, 26), Pass TD: 2.0 (1, 1, 1, 3, 3)

  • ILL - W1 (1-2 vs. Top 25) | Pass Yards Against: 226.5, Points Against: 23.3 (55th)

  • Notes: Aguilar is part of the lawsuit challenging junior college seasons counting toward Division I football eligibility, but this is likely his last game for the Volunteers. Either way, he should be motivated to show off for NFL teams. He faded a bit down the stretch, but threw for 393 yards against a very solid Oklahoma defense on November 1st and for 371 vs. Georgia early in the year.

• USC QB Jayden Maiava (vs. TCU)

  • Pass Yards: 285.9 (257, 306, 254, 299, 135), Pass Attempts: 31.1 (29, 43, 32, 33, 23), Pass TD: 1.9 (2, 3, 1, 2, 0), Rush Yards: 12.5 (10, 16, 11, 10, 62)

  • TCU - W2 (1-1 vs. Top 25) | Pass Yards Against: 242.8, Points Against: 25.2 (71st)

  • Notes: This could have been a battle of top-tier quarterbacks, but TCU’s Josh Hoover entered the transfer portal and is skipping the Alamo Bowl. Maiava will be without two of his star receivers, Ja'Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon, because they opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. But the Trojans also have a number of players out on defense, so it might be up to Maiava’s arm and backup receivers to win this game.

• Celtics G Jaylen Brown (at Jazz)

  • Points: 31.5 (29.7 - 37, 30, 31, 30, 34), Reb: 5.5 (6.3 - 7, 3, 9, 9, 8), Ast: 4.5 (4.8 - 4, 4, 2, 7, 7)

  • UTA - W2 (4-6 L10) | Points Against: 127.1 (30th), Reb Against: 44.7 (17th), Ast Against: 30.5 (30th)

  • Notes: Brown is averaging over four points more per game in December compared to November, and has scored 30 or more in all nine games this month. When these two teams played earlier this year, Brown scored 36 and added two rebounds and four assists in a 105-103 Utah win.

5. Overtime

In the News

• Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold went from being discarded by the Vikings at the end of last season to having the chance to lead his new team to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Yahoo Sports’ Jori Epstein wrote about Darnold’s journey and remarkable season. He’s thrown for 3,850 yards, good for fifth in the NFL, and has led his team to 10 wins over its last 11 games.

• A Texas Tech booster thinks he can fix college sports and is going head-to-head against the power conferences in college football to try and get it done. Cody Campbell, a 44-year-old oil billionaire who helped bankroll the Red Raiders’ run to the College Football Playoff, believes that college sports TV rights could be worth $7 billion, almost double the current fee structure, if conferences negotiated together rather than separately. Read ESPN’s Dan Murphy’s great feature on the man and his mission.

• Tiger Woods turns 50 today, and the Associated Press wrote about how so many golf legends continued winning, or at least staying in contention, after that milestone. But Woods has been dealing with injuries for years, and he didn’t compete in a single tournament in 2025 and has played just 11 times in the past five years. So it’s unclear what the next phase of the legend’s career will look like.

• USC says it’s Notre Dame’s fault that the schools aren’t playing football against each other for at least a few years. “We took Notre Dame at their word that they would play us anytime and anywhere,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said. “That proposal was rejected. Not only was it rejected, five minutes after we got the call, it was announced that they had scheduled another opponent.” USC wanted to move the game to the beginning of the season rather than its usual spot between mid-October and late November.

• Notre Dame’s coach is sticking around to find out what life is like without the rivalry, as Marcus Freeman posted three words on social media that calmed Fighting Irish fans’ fears about his future: “2026…run it back.” Freeman had reportedly been considered for major college openings, but an NFL team calling was the bigger concern for Notre Dame. Now that appears to be off the table, at least for another season.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 2pm: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech [Independence Bowl] on ESPN

• 2:30pm: Chelsea vs. Bournemouth on USA

• 3:15pm: Arsenal vs. Aston Villa on NBCSN

• 5:30pm: Tennessee vs. Illinois [Music City Bowl] on ESPN

• 7pm: Florida State vs. No. 12 North Carolina [CFB] on ESPN2

• 8pm: 76ers vs. Grizzlies on NBC

• 8:30pm: Islanders vs. Blackhawks on NHL Network

• 9pm: No. 16 USC vs. TCU [Alamo Bowl] on ESPN

• 10:30pm: Pistons vs. Lakers on NBC