Insights on NBA, NHL and MCBB Matchups + Predicting the Next NFL Head Coaches

We also highlight two NBA stars and a college player to watch tonight

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Most likely options to fill the six current NFL coaching vacancies

2. Game of the Day: Duke looks to stay undefeated in ACC play

3. Scouting Report: Orlando’s Banchero is on a roll

4. By the Numbers: Defending champs are 4-10 ATS to start season

5. Overtime: Knicks owner thinks it’s Eastern Conference title or bust

1. Leading Off

Three more NFL head coaches were fired yesterday, as the Raiders dismissed Pete Carroll after one season, the Cardinals parted ways with Jonathan Gannon after a 15-36 record in three campaigns, and the Browns let go the 2020 and 2023 coach of the year Kevin Stefanski. Atlanta ousted Raheem Morris on Sunday night, and the Giants and Titans sacked their coaches earlier in the season and it would be shock if either interim (Mike Kafka or Mike McCoy, respectively) got the full-time job.

We took a look at prediction markets to see where potential replacements stand, and Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is by far the most popular choice. Here is where Kalshi has each current opening:

• Browns: Kubiak (38%), Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter (29%), Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula (23%), Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury (18%), Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel (10%)

• Cardinals: Kubiak (19%), former Packers and Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy (16%), Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores (15%), Minter (10%)

• Falcons: Kubiak (23%), Stefanski (16%), McCarthy (15%), Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy (12%), Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady (11%)

• Giants: Stefanski (28%), McCarthy (20%), Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley (18%), Ravens head coach John Harbaugh (15%), Kafka (5%)

• Raiders: Flores (36%), Kubiak (12%), 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, Kingsbury, and Minter (9%)

• Titans: Nagy (39%), McCarthy (23%), Brady (10%), McCoy (<1%)

Who could be next? The Buccaneers’ Todd Bowles leads the way with a 41% chance of being out before the next season starts, with the Jets’ Aaron Glenn at 37%, McDaniel at 30%, and Harbaugh at 23%.

— Abe Rakov

2. Game of the Day

Duke’s Defense Has Faded Since Lone Loss of the Year, Heads to Louisville for Top-25 Matchup

No. 6 Duke’s undefeated run was spoiled by No. 14 Texas Tech a little over two weeks ago, and the Blue Devils haven’t looked quite the same since — especially on defense. Before to the loss, the most points Duke had given up was 73. But after the 82-81 defeat, they’ve allowed 79 and 87 points in close wins against mid-level ACC opponents. Louisville is coming off of a four-point loss at Stanford in the team’s only win against a top-25 opponent this season. The Cardinals have been without their second-leading scorer, Mikel Brown Jr., since mid-December and are 2-2 with the freshman out of the lineup.

Duke’s superstar freshman Cameron Boozer has scored at least 23 points in six of his past eight games. Boozer averages just under what the next two leading scorers for the Blue Devils combine for each game, and only three Duke players are currently averaging double-digit points.

No. 6 Duke (13-1, 2-0 ACC) vs. No. 20 Louisville (11-3, 1-1 ACC)
7pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: DUKE (-1.5, -104), LOU (+1.5, -118)

  • 85% of the money and 87% of the bets are with DUKE

  • ATS | DUKE: 7-7, LOU: 9-5

• Moneyline: Duke -118, Louisville -102

• Total (161.5):

  • DUKE: 5-9, LOU: 6-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• DUKE F Cameron Boozer | Points: 23.5 (23.0 - 17, 26, 23, 26, 18), Reb: 9.5 (9.8 - 5, 12, 8, 13, 15)

• DUKE G Isaiah Evans | Points: 13.5 (13.4 - 28, 17, 4, 16, 9), Reb: TBA (3.4 - 3, 5, 5, 2, 3)

• LOU G Ryan Conwell | Points: 20.5 (19.6 - 18, 26, 14, 22, 17), Reb: 4.5 (4.7 - 7, 4, 5, 5, 2)

• LOU G Isaac McKneely | Points: 12.5 (11.6 - 17, 11, 16, 5, 2), Reb: TBA (3.1 - 3, 1, 5, 1, 1)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. Scouting Report

Kings Could Help Flagg Out of Mini-Slump, Vols’ Leading Scorer Gets Fast-Paced Matchup

• Magic F Paolo Banchero (at Wizards)

  • Banchero is coming into Washington hot, averaging 27.8 points per game over his past four. He has two double-doubles and a triple-double in that span, so going up against a Wizards’ squad that gives up the second-most points and most rebounds in the NBA is a gift for Banchero. He’s managing to fill the scoresheet while only finishing as Orlando’s top scorer twice in the past seven games and high rebounder in two other outings during that stretch, so there’s plenty to go around for the Magic.

  • Points: 25.5 (21.0 - 28, 31, 29, 23, 12), Reb: 8.5 (8.6 - 12, 6, 10, 15, 6), Ast: 5.5 (4.7 - 5, 6, 4, 10, 6)

  • WAS - L1 (5-5 L10) | Points Allowed: 124.4 (29th), Reb Allowed: 48.3 (30th), Ast Allowed: 28.9 (28th)

• Dallas F Cooper Flagg (at Kings)

  • After finally finding a rhythm from the end of November through early December, winning 6 of 8 games, the Mavericks have gone 2-6 and Flagg has faded a bit. The rookie has scored under his season average in three straight, but faces a porous Kings defense tonight that he scored 23 against before that streak started. One thing to watch: After going 3-4 from three in that game, Flagg has shot 1-10 from beyond the arc since.

  • Points: 21.5 (18.9 - 10, 12, 15, 23, 27), Reb: 6.5 (6.4 - 7, 7, 6, 6, 6), Ast: 5.5 (4.1 - 6, 7, 8, 5, 5)

  • SAC - L5 (2-8 L10) | Points Allowed: 122.3 (27th), Reb Allowed: 46.1 (25th), Ast Allowed: 28.0 (26th)

• Tennessee G Ja'Kobi Gillespie (vs. Texas)

  • The Volunteers’ top scorer has led his team in points in four of the past five games. Gillespie has added at least 20 points in 6 of 14 games this season. Tennessee has lost 4 of 7 but faces a Texas squad that has struggled to find an identity and only has one high-quality win all season. The Longhorns have scored at least 94 points in 4 of their last 5 games, so a fast pace should help Gillespie get opportunities.

  • Points: TBA (17.6 - 14, 21, 15, 23, 15), Reb: TBA (2.7 - 2, 3, 3, 3, 5)

  • TEX - L1 (9-5, 0-1 SEC) | Points Allowed: 73.4 (184th), Reb Allowed: 30.6 (28th), Ast Allowed: 11.2 (44th)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

4. By the Numbers

Spread Bettors Back Heat, NBA’s 3rd-Leading Scorers, to Keep it Close on Road Against Wolves

NBA

• Spurs (25-10, 12-5 Away) vs. Grizzlies (15-20, 7-9 Home)

  • SA (-5.5, -110), MEM (+5.5, -110): 72% of the money and 71% of the bets are with SA

    • ATS | SA (road): 8-8-1, MEM (home): 7-9

  • Total (238.5) | SA: 17-19 (119.7 ppg), MEM: 14-21 (116.0 ppg)

• Heat (20-16, 7-10 Away) vs. Timberwolves (23-13, 12-6 Home)

  • MIA (+6.5, -110), MIN (-6.5, -110): 69% of the money and 51% of the bets are with MIA

    • ATS | MIA (road): 10-7, MIN (home): 7-11

  • Total (237.5) | MIA: 17-19 (120.8 ppg), MIN: 17-19 (119.6 ppg)

• Mavericks (13-23, 3-12 Away) vs. Kings (8-28, 5-12 Home)

  • DAL (-5, -110), SAC (+5, -110): 52% of the money is with SAC but 61% of the bets are with DAL

    • ATS | DAL (road): 5-10, SAC (home): 5-12

  • Total (229.5) | DAL: 16-20 (113.5 ppg), SAC: 16-20 (110.3 ppg)

NHL

• Avalanche (31-3-7, 14-3-5 Away) vs. Lightning (25-13-3, 11-9-0 Home)

  • COL (-1.5, +186), TB (+1.5, -235): 88% of the money and 61% of the bets are with COL

    • ATS | COL (road): 10-12, TB (home): 5-15

  • Moneyline | COL -125, TB +104: 82% of the money and 74% of the bets are with COL

  • Total (6.5) | COL: 18-23 (4.00 gpg), TB: 22-19 (3.44 gpg)

• Stars (25-9-8, 13-3-5 Away) vs. Hurricanes (25-14-3, 13-8-1 Home)

  • DAL (+1.5, -230), CAR (-1.5, +184): 97% of the money and 77% of the bets are with DAL

    • ATS | DAL (road): 10-11, CAR (home): 7-15

  • Moneyline | DAL +112, CAR -134: 68% of the money is with DAL but 55% of the bets are with CAR

  • Total (6.5) | DAL: 21-21 (3.40 gpg), CAR: 22-20 (3.26 gpg)

• Panthers (22-16-3, 8-7-0 Away) vs. Maple Leafs (19-15-7, 14-5-5 Home)

  • FLA (-1.5, +186), TOR (+1.5, -230): 66% of the money is with FLA but 69% of the bets are with TOR

    • ATS | FLA (road): 6-9, TOR (home): 10-14

  • Moneyline | FLA -132, TOR +110: 56% of the money is with TOR but 60% of the bets are with FLA

  • Total (5.5) | FLA: 23-18 (3.10 gpg), TOR: 24-17 (3.34 gpg)

• Devils (22-18-2, 11-10-0 Away) vs. Islanders (23-15-4, 13-8-2 Home)

  • NJ (-1.5, +210), NYI (+1.5, -265): 66% of the money is with NJ but 54% of the bets are with NYI

    • ATS | NJ (road): 10-11, NYI (home): 10-13

  • Moneyline | NJ -120, NYI +100: 52% of the money and 51% of the bets are with NJ

  • Total (5.5) | NJ: 17-25 (2.64 gpg), NYI: 19-23 (2.76 gpg)

MCBB

• No. 18 Georgia (13-1, 1-0 SEC) vs. Florida (9-5, 0-1 SEC)

  • UGA (+9.5, -102), UF (-9.5, -120): 63% of the money is with FLA but 74% of the bets are with UGA

    • ATS | UGA: 6-8, UF: 4-10

  • Total (173.5) | UGA: 9-5 (99.4 ppg), UF: 5-9 (84.3 ppg)

• No. 14 Texas Tech (11-3, 1-0 Big 12) vs. No. 7 Houston (13-1, 1-0 Big 12)

  • TTU (+6.5, -114), HOU (-6.5, -106): 56% of the money is with HOU but 51% of the bets are with TTU

    • ATS | TTU: 7-7, HOU: 6-8

  • Total (141.5) | TTU: 7-7 (85.1 ppg), HOU: 7-7 (77.9 ppg)

• TCU (11-3, 1-0 Big 12) vs. No. 22 Kansas (10-4, 0-1 Big 12)

  • TCU (+6.5, -102), KU (-6.5, -120): 55% of the money and bets are with KU

    • ATS | TCU: 8-6, KU: 9-5

  • Total (139.5) | TCU: 5-9 (79.5 ppg), KU: 4-10 (75.8 ppg)

5. Overtime

In the News

• The top spot in the AP men’s college basketball Top 25 is as close as it can get, with Arizona just a single point ahead of No. 2 Michigan. Arizona earned 32 of 61 first-place votes and 1,494 points, while Michigan received the remaining 29 first-place votes and 1,493 points. Only one poll in history had a closer margin at the top, in 1981 when there was a tie for first. Nebraska is now 15-0 and moved up three spots to No. 10, while Iowa was the biggest gainer with a six-place jump to 19th. North Carolina (17th) and Kansas (22nd) had the biggest drops, with both falling five places.

• Knicks owner James Dolan has the highest of expectations for his team this year and doesn’t think they need to add any new players to win. “Getting to the Finals, we absolutely have to do. Winning the Finals, we should do,” he told New York radio station WFAN. New York lost in the Eastern Conference Finals last year and then fired coach Tom Thibodeau, replacing him with Mike Brown. The Knicks are third in the East at 23-13, but have lost four straight including last night’s 31-point defeat to the conference-leading Pistons.

• With the Raiders owning the first pick in the NFL Draft and now having a head coaching vacancy after firing Pete Carroll after one season, could they bring in Indiana coach Curt Cignetti along with his Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza? Brad Crawford of CBS Sports takes a look at the potential.

• The Trae Young era could be coming to a close in Atlanta, as the four-time All Star is in “positive” discussions with his team about a trade, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. Young is in his eighth season with the Hawks but has only played in 10 games this season due to injuries and is averaging a career-low 28.0 minutes. Atlanta is currently 10th in the East with a 17-21 record and has lost 8 of 10 games.

• Manchester United fired coach Ruben Amorim after just 14 months, a day after he said “I will do my job until another guy is coming here to replace me.” Amorim, who had a successful four year run at Sporting Clube de Portugal before being hired by Manchester United, was just 24-18-21 — good for a 38.1% win percentage compared to the 71.0% he earned at Sporting CP. Manchester United is in sixth in the Premier League through 20 matches, 17 points behind pace-setting Arsenal but just three out of a spot in the Champions League.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 3pm: West Ham vs. Nottingham Forest on USA

• 7pm: No. 6 Duke vs. No. 16 Louisville [MCBB] on ESPN

• 7:30pm: Panthers vs. Maple Leafs on TNT

• 8pm: Heat vs. Timberwolves on NBC

• 9pm: No. 15 Texas Tech vs. No. 8 Houston [MCBB] on FS1

• 11pm: Mavericks vs. Kings on NBC