Trends, Stats and Insights for Every NFL and NBA Game on the Christmas Day Slate

The NBA schedule is much better than the NFL’s trio of matchups

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: NFL’s disappointing Christmas could be NBA’s gain

2. Game of the Day: A must-win game in Minnesota

3. By the Numbers: Trends and stats for every NFL and NBA game on the slate

4. Scouting Report: Lamb is picking up steam for Cowboys as season ends

5. Overtime: How Week 17 could take the drama out of Week 18 in the NFL

1. Leading Off

When the NFL’s Christmas slate was announced, football fans thought they were getting quite a gift. But now that the big day is here, the three-game schedule is closer to coal in a stocking than a new bike. Not to be a grinch, but today is shaping up to be kind of a dud on the football front. All isn’t lost this Christmas, though, as the NBA matchups are outstanding from noon to after midnight ET.

Even with the obvious discrepancy in schedules, the NFL will still almost certainly swamp the NBA in viewers because the League decided to steal the holiday from the Association. But you have free will, so feel free to at least flip back and forth throughout the day.

On the NFL side, the slate fell apart because of run-of-the-mill disappointing seasons (Cowboys and Chiefs) mixed with injury-marred campaigns (Commanders and Vikings). The Lions are still fighting for an NFC playoff spot and the Broncos are very much in contention for the top seed in the AFC, though. How rough could it get today? Three of the six teams are starting backup quarterbacks and two of them will be lining up third-stringers under center — Washington’s Josh Johnson and Kansas City’s Chris Oladokun (Minnesota is on a regular backup, Max Brosmer).

The NBA, on the other hand, features the top-six scoring offenses in the league, another Spurs vs. Thunder matchup (which is becoming a tremendous rivalry this season), the Rookie of the Year favorite in the Mavericks’ Cooper Flagg, and potentially LeBron James’s last Christmas with the Lakers. Three of the five games feature spreads under six points, and the biggest underdog is San Antonio (+9.5), which just beat Oklahoma City by 20 two days ago.

The NBA owned Christmas from a sports perspective until the NFL saw an opportunity. The question is: Now that it turns out that the NFL slate is pretty mediocre, will the NBA reclaim at least some of its turf?

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

Lions Playoff Hopes are Fading But Detroit Got a Break with McCarthy’s Newest Injury

This is the game of the day because it’s the only must-win matchup of the NFL’s Christmas slate: The Lions need to beat a backup quarterback to keep their playoff hopes alive. Vikings starter J.J. McCarthy, who had led his team to three straight wins, has a hairline fracture on his throwing hand and Max Brosmer is expected to be under center for Minnesota. The Lions had a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers on Sunday and have been beaten in three of four, putting the one-time Super Bowl contenders on the brink of missing the postseason entirely.

Lions (8-7, 3-4 Away) vs. Vikings (7-8, 2-4 Home)
4:30pm on Netflix

The Odds

• Spread: DET (-7.5, -102), MIN (+7.5, -120)

  • 87% of the money and 78% of the bets are with DET

  • ATS | DET (road): 3-4, MIN (home): 2-4

• Moneyline: DET -390, MIN +310

• Total (43.5): Over -105, Under -115

  • DET: 10-5, MIN 8-7

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• DET QB Jared Goff | Pass Yards: 240.5 (364, 338, 309, 256, 279), Pass Attempts: 32.5 (54, 41, 34, 26, 42), Pass TD: 1.5 (3, 3, 1, 2, 2)

• DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown | Rec Yards: 78.5 (54, 164, 92, 0, 149), Receptions: 6.5 (4, 13, 6, 9, 9), Anytime TD: +115 (0, 2, 0, 0, 1)

• MIN RB Aaron Jones Sr. | Rush Yards: 60.5 (85, 34, 76, 3, 41), Carries: 14.5 (21, 12, 14, 6, 9)

• MIN WR Justin Jefferson | Rec Yards: 61.5 (85, 22, 11, 4, 48), Receptions: 4.5 (6, 2, 2, 2, 4)

*Stats listed in parentheses are past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

3. By the Numbers

Broncos Favored By Nearly 2 TDs vs. 3rd-String Chiefs’ QB, Spurs vs. Thunder Round 3

NFL

• Cowboys (6-8-1, 2-5 Away) vs. Commanders (4-11, 2-5 Home)

  • DAL (-8.5, -108), WAS (+8.5, -112): 84% of the money and 74% of the bets are with DAL

    • ATS | DAL (road): 3-4, WAS (home): 3-4

  • Total (50.5) | DAL: 10-5 (28.3 ppg), WAS: 8-7 (20.6 ppg)

• Broncos (12-3, 5-2 Away) vs. Chiefs (6-9, 5-3 Home)

  • DEN (-13.5, -110), KC (+13.5, -110): 88% of the money and 78% of the bets are with DEN

    • ATS | DEN (road): 2-3-1, KC (home): 4-3-1

  • Total (36.5) | DEN: 7-8 (24.1 ppg), KC: 4-11 (22.5 ppg)

NBA

• Cavaliers (17-14, 6-6 Away) vs. Knicks (20-9, 14-2 Home)

  • CLE (+6, -110), NYK (-6, -110): 58% of the money is with NYK but 52% of the bets are with CLE

    • ATS | CLE (road): 4-8, NYK (home): 13-3

  • Total (239.5) | CLE: 15-16 (120.0 ppg), NYK: 16-14 (120.1 ppg)

• Spurs (22-7, 10-5 Away) vs. Thunder (26-4, 14-0 Home)

  • SA (+9.5, -114), OKC (-9.5, -106): 60% of the money and 78% of the bets are with SA

    • ATS | SA (road): 6-8-1, OKC (home): 9-5

  • Total (235.5) | SA: 16-14 (120.4 ppg), OKC: 15-15 (121.9 ppg)

• Mavericks (12-19, 3-9 Away) vs. Warriors (15-15, 9-4 Home)

  • DAL (+8, -106), GS (-8, -114): 55% of the money and 74% of the bets are with DAL

    • ATS | DAL (road): 5-7, GS (home): 7-6

  • Total (227.5) | DAL: 14-17 (113.6 ppg), GS: 16-14 (114.2 ppg)

• Rockets (17-10, 9-8 Away) vs. Lakers (19-9, 7-4 Home)

  • HOU (-2.5, -106), LAL (+2.5, -114): 56% of the money and 58% of the bets are with LAL

    • ATS | HOU (road): 10-7, LAL (home): 6-5

  • Total (230.5) | HOU: 17-10 (120.5 ppg), LAL: 19-9 (117.7 ppg)

• Timberwolves (20-10, 8-5 Away) vs. Nuggets (21-8, 9-5 Home)

  • MIN (+3.5, -110), DEN (-3.5, -110): 57% of the money and 51% of the bets are with DEN

    • ATS | MIN (road): 5-8, DEN (home): 8-6

  • Total (240.5) | MIN: 13-17 (118.2 ppg), DEN: 19-10 (125.2 ppg)

4. Scouting Report

Lamb Has 6+ Catches in 4 Straight Games for First Time This Season

• Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (at Commanders)

  • Rec Yards: 79.5 (85.6 - 51, 111, 121, 112, 75), Receptions: 5.5 (5.8 - 7, 10, 8, 9, 11), Anytime TD: +105 (3 - 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)

  • WAS - L1 (2-5H) | Pass Yards/Game (Def): 241.7 (26th), Total Yards/Game (Def): 380.1 (31st), Points/Game (Def): 26.9 (27th)

  • Notes: Lamb caught one of his three touchdowns on the season when these teams faced off in Week 7, a 44-22 win for the Cowboys. He had five catches for 110 yards, but most of that was on the 74-yard scoring strike. Lamb has caught at least six balls in four straight games for the first time this season.

• Broncos QB Bo Nix (at Chiefs)

  • Pass Yards: 227.5 (240.5 - 352, 302, 212, 321, 295-KC), Pass Attempts: 34.5 (36.7 - 47, 34, 38, 45, 37-KC), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.6 - 1, 4, 9, 1, 0-KC), Rush Yards: 13.5 (17.7 - 11, 10, 15, 16, 8-KC)

  • KC - L4 (5-3H) | Pass Yards/Game (Def): 204.5 (12th), Total Yards/Game (Def): 307.9 (10th), Points/Game (Def): 19.6 (4th)

  • Notes: The Broncos won 22-19 when these teams played in Week 11, and Nix had a clinical effort under center. He threw for 295 yards (24-37) and didn’t have a touchdown or a pick. Nix is coming off two 300+ yard passing performances in a row for the first time this season. Despite their struggles this campaign, the Chiefs defense is still solid, but is pride enough to keep it going in Week 17?

• Knicks G Jalen Brunson (vs. Cavaliers)

  • Points: 28.5 (29.1 - 47, 22, 25, 25, 40), Reb: 3.5 (3.4 - 3, 6, 7, 4, 4), Ast: 6.5 (6.6 - 8, 9, 7, 8, 8)

  • CLE - W2 (5-5 L10) | Points: 117.5 (20th), Reb: 45.2 (20th), Ast: 27.3 (21st)

  • Notes: The Knicks and Cavaliers have only played once so far this season, a 119-111 New York win in the opening game, but Brunson had an off shooting night. He was 5-18 (1-9 from three) for 23 points and added four rebounds and five assists. Brunson has scored fewer points but hasn’t had a worse shooting night percentage-wise.

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

In the News

• It’s unlikely, but the NFL playoff picture could be decided in Week 17. CBS Sports takes a look at what could happen this week that could make the final week of the season basically drama free for the first time since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.

• First round College Football Playoff ratings were a mixed bag. The good news: Alabama’s win at Oklahoma averaged 14.9 million viewers, the top-ranked game in since the field expanded last year. On the downside, overall the CFP first round had a 7% viewership drop compared to last year, primarily because few people watched Oregon vs. James Madison — which was not only on TNT/TBS instead of ABC/ESPN, but also went up against the Bears vs. Packers overtime game on FOX (21.3 million viewers to 4.4 million who watched the CFP game).

• ESPN’s Dave McMenamin goes behind-the-scenes of the Luka Doncic-Austin Reaves budding relationship, which has helped steer the Lakers to the top half of the West even with LeBron James missing the first part of the season. The reason? Simple, according to McMenamin’s report: “[Doncic is] realizing, ‘F-, Austin is good!’” a team source told ESPN. “It was the same way he loved [Jalen] Brunson and loved Kyrie [Irving]. There’s an appreciation for great players.”

• After a very public feud on Monday, Warriors coach Steve Kerr said he hopes Draymond Green “finish his career as a Warrior.” The coach and player got into a heated argument in the third quarter of Monday’s win over the Magic, which caused Green to leave the bench in the middle of a timeout. At a media availability on Wednesday, Kerr took responsibility for the argument and said the two apologized to each other.

• UNC coach Bill Belichick is reportedly adding a veteran coach to help revamp his offense, as he’s “working on” bringing former Arkansas offensive coordinator-turned interim head coach Bobby Petrino to Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels scored just 19.3 points per game this season (121st in the nation), while Petrino has been an offensive coordinator at eight universities along with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He also served as the head coach at Louisville twice, Arkansas, Western Kentucky, and Missouri State, along with the Atlanta Falcons.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 12pm: Cavaliers vs. Knicks on ABC/ESPN

• 1pm: Cowboys vs. Commanders on Netflix

• 2:30pm: Spurs vs. Thunder on ABC/ESPN

• 4:30pm: Lions vs. Vikings on Netflix

• 5pm: Mavericks vs. Warriors on ABC/ESPN

• 8pm: Rockets vs. Lakers on ABC/ESPN

• 8:15pm: Broncos vs. Chiefs on Prime Video

• 10:30pm: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets on ABC/ESPN