First Look at CFP Semifinal Matchups + NBA and MCBB Insights and More Bowl Games

Indiana won its first bowl game since 1991 and is now the favorite to win the national championship

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Indiana is a dominant No. 1 team, title favorite

2. Game of the Day: Veteran QBs face off in Holiday Bowl

3. By the Numbers: Knicks still have the best record at home ATS (13-4)

4. Scouting Report: Spurs player to watch with Wembanyama out again

5. Overtime: Where do the Colts and Dolphins go from here?

1. Leading Off

Indiana shut down Oregon’s high-powered offense in Eugene in October and ended defending national champion Ohio State’s 16-game winning streak a few weeks ago en route to a 13-0 season and No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. Hoosiers’ quarterback Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy after throwing 30 touchdowns to just six interceptions with a completion percentage of over 70%.

But because this is Indiana football, not basketball, there was still a lot of doubt about the team. The Hoosiers’ last bowl win was in 1991. Before coach Curt Cignetti arrived in Bloomington last season, the program had just three winning seasons over its past 29. That’s why even as 7.5-point favorites against No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl, pundits were falling over each other to predict not just a Crimson Tide cover, but an upset victory.

Then the Hoosiers completely dominated from start to finish. When Indiana went up 17-0, ESPN broadcaster Kirk Herbstreit noted that Alabama came back to win from 17 down against No. 8 Oklahoma in the first round, but that Indiana was no Oklahoma. That was a slight of the Sooners, not the Hoosiers, and one more sign that Indiana has made it to the top of the college football world. Mendoza ended up 14-16 for 192 yards with three touchdowns in the 38-3 blowout.

Indiana has a rematch against No. 5 Oregon in the Peach Bowl a week from today with the winner advancing to the national championship game. The Hoosiers’ scored the final 10 points of the matchup in Oregon to win 30-20 and officially announce that last year’s playoff run wasn’t a fluke. Now, Indiana has a chance to become the first 16-0 team in college football history.

The Hoosiers start as a 3.5-point favorite over the Ducks, who had an equally dominant 23-0 win over No. 4 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. The other semifinal, which takes place at the Fiesta Bowl next Thursday, features two teams that weren’t given much of a chance when the playoffs began: No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Ole Miss, which erased a nine-point first half deficit and then lost its own 10-point fourth quarter lead before beating No. 3 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 39-34. Miami, which climbed to as high as No. 2 in the country earlier this year, opens as a 3.5-point favorite.

Indiana is the favorite to win the national title at +125, followed by its semifinal rival Oregon (+300), Miami (+310), and Ole Miss (+550).

— Abe Rakov

Banish bad ads for good

Your site, your ad choices.

Don’t let intrusive ads ruin the experience for the audience you've worked hard to build.

With Google AdSense, you can ensure only the ads you want appear on your site, making it the strongest and most compelling option.

Don’t just take our word for it. DIY Eule, one of Germany’s largest sewing content creators says, “With Google AdSense, I can customize the placement, amount, and layout of ads on my site.”

Google AdSense gives you full control to customize exactly where you want ads—and where you don't. Use the powerful controls to designate ad-free zones, ensuring a positive user experience.

Take control of your ads

2. Game of the Day

Arizona and SMU QBs Bring Uncommon Consistency to Holiday Bowl

In today’s version of college football, the quarterback matchup in the Holiday Bowl is unique: The starters are not only playing, they’ve both been at their schools for four seasons. No. 17 Arizona’s Noah Fifita is a three-year starter who has been remarkably consistent during his time in Tucson (he’s thrown for five more yards this year compared to last year and had 89 more passing yards last year compared to 2023). SMU’s Kevin Jennings followed up his 23 touchdown, 11 interception year in 2024 with a 26 touchdown, 10 interception campaign this season (we have more on him in the Scouting Report section). This is expected to be the closest bowl game of the day.

No. 17 Arizona (9-3) vs. SMU (8-4)
8pm on FOX

The Odds

• Spread: ARIZ (-1.5, -105), SMU (+1.5, -115)

  • 60% of the money and 65% of the bets are with ARIZ

  • ATS | ARIZ: 8-4, SMU: 5-7

• Moneyline: ARIZ -110, SMU -106

• Total (52.5): Over -105, Under -115

  • ARIZ: 4-8, SMU: 4-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• ARIZ QB Noah Fifita | Pass Yards: 246.9 (286, 183, 294, 158, 213), Pass TD: 2.2 (1, 1, 1, 2, 4), Rush Yards: 11.9 (18, 33, -11, 25, 0)

• ARIZ WR Kris Hutson | Rec Yards: 74.0 (95, 133, 123, 34, 37), Receptions: 5.7 (7, 9, 8, 4, 5), Anytime TD: 0.4 (0, 1, 0, 0, 1)

• SMU RB T.J. Harden | Rush Yards: 62.3 (40, 90, 130, 27, 25), Anytime TD: 0.7 (1, 0, 0, 1, 0)

• SMU WR Jordan Hudson | Rec Yards: 74.9 (58, 96, 104, 136, 21), Receptions: 5.6 (6, 8, 5, 11, 4), Anytime TD: 0.6 (1, 1, 1, 0, 0)

*Player stats are shown as: Season average (last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. By the Numbers

More Bowl Game Insights, NBA Matchups to Watch, Rangers and Panthers Playing Outdoor Hockey

CFB

• Rice (5-7) vs. Texas State (6-6)

  • RICE (+15.5, -105), TXST (-15.5, -115): 80% of the money and 55% of the bets are with TXST

    • ATS | RICE: 5-7, TXST: 4-8

  • Total (55.5) | RICE: 7-5 (19.8 ppg), TXST: 7-5 (36.1 ppg)

• Navy (10-2) vs. Cincinnati (7-5)

  • NAVY (-7.5, +100), CIN (+7.5, -122): 67% of the money is with NAVY but 60% of the bets are with CIN

    • ATS | NAVY: 4-8, CIN: 6-6

  • Total (54.5) | NAVY: 8-4 (31.2 ppg), CIN: 7-5 (31.8 ppg)

• Wake Forest (8-4) vs. Mississippi State (5-7)

  • WAKE (+3.5, -120), MSST (-3.5, -102): 53% of the money and 52% of the bets are with MSST

    • ATS | WAKE: 8-4, MSST: 8-4

  • Total (52.5) | WAKE: 7-5 (26.8 ppg), MSST: 6-6 (30.5 ppg)

NBA

• Grizzlies (15-18, 8-9 Away) vs. Lakers (20-11, 8-6 Home)

  • MEM (+4.5, -112), LAL (-4.5, -108): 74% of the money and 54% of the bets are with LAL

    • ATS | MEM (road): 7-9, LAL (home): 7-7

  • Total (238.5) | MEM: 13-20 (115.9 ppg), LAL: 20-11 (116.8 ppg)

• Hawks (16-19, 10-8 Away) vs. Knicks (23-10, 15-2 Home)

  • ATL (+7.5, -110), NYK (-7.5, -110): 56% of the money and 51% of the bets are with NYK

    • ATS | ATL (road): 11-7, NYK (home): 13-4

  • Total (245.5) | ATL: 20-15 (119.3 ppg), NYK: 20-14 (121.2 ppg)

• Thunder (29-5, 12-3 Away) vs. Warriors (18-16, 10-4 Home)

  • OKC (-9, -112), GS (+9, -108): 63% of the money and 51% of the bets are with GS

    • ATS | OKC (road): 7-8, GS (home): 8-6

  • Total (231.5) | OKC: 17-17 (122.1 ppg), GS: 20-14 (115.6 ppg)

MCBB

• No. 24 USC (12-1, 1-1 Big Ten) vs. No 2 Michigan (12-0, 2-0 Big Ten)

  • USC (+21.5, -110), UM (-21.5, -110): 72% of the money and 57% of the bets are with UM

    • ATS | USC: 6-6, UM: 8-4

  • Total (168.5) | USC: 8-4 (89.4 ppg), UM: 6-6 (96.8 ppg)

• West Virginia (9-4, 0-0 Big 12) vs. No. 3 Iowa State (13-0, 0-0 Big 12)

  • WVU (+16.5, -110), ISU (-16.5, -110): 94% of the money and 81% of the bets are with ISU

    • ATS | WVU: 7-6, ISU: 7-6

  • Total (140.5) | WVU: 6-7 (76.2 ppg), ISU: 8-5 (90.4 ppg)

• No. 9 Michigan State (12-1, 2-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 13 Nebraska (13-0, 2-0 Big Ten)

  • MSU (+1.5, -102), NEB (-1.5, -120): 76% of the money is with MSU but 55% of the bets are with NEB

    • ATS | MSU: 6-7, NEB: 7-6

  • Total (143.5) | MSU: 5-8 (80.8 ppg), NEB: 5-8 (83.5 ppg)

NHL

• Rangers (19-18-5) vs. Panthers (21-15-3)

  • NYR (+1.5, -205), FLA (-1.5, +164): 60% of the money and 57% of the bets are with FLA

    • ATS | NYR: 21-21, FLA: 13-26

  • Moneyline | NYR +126, FLA -152: 62% of the money is with FLA but 57% of the bets are with NYR

  • Total (5.5) | NYR: 15-27 (2.55 gpg), FLA: 22-17 (3.18 gpg)

4. Scouting Report

Navy QB Averages Over 104 Rush Yards Per Game, Fox Steps up With Wemby Out

• SMU QB Kevin Jennings (vs. No. 17 Arizona)

  • Pass Yards: 280.3 (250, 303, 326, 365, 171), Pass TD: 2.2 (2, 3, 3, 1, 0)

  • ARIZ - W5 (1-2 vs. AP Top 25) | Pass Yards Allowed: 155.9, Total Yards Allowed: 301.6, Points Allowed: 18.9

  • Notes: The junior quarterback averaged 311 passing yards per game over his last four regular season matchups, throwing nine touchdowns to two interceptions. Arizona has a solid defense, but Jennings threw for 365 yards in an upset win over Miami, so he shouldn’t be intimidated.

• Navy QB Blake Horvath (vs. Cincinnati)

  • Pass Yards: 133.8 (82, 100, 147, 80, 83), Rush Yards: 104.3 (107, 54, 60, 112, 174), Anytime TD: 1.4 (1, 1, 0, 1, 4)

  • CIN - L4 (1-2 vs. AP Top 25) | Rush Yards Allowed: 173.6, Pass Yards Allowed: 229.8, Points Allowed: 24.8

  • Notes: Horvath isn’t going to beat anyone in the air, except, ironically, Air Force, which gave up 339 passing yards to the quarterback (23% of his total for the whole season). But his legs are dangerous: Horvath rushed for over 100 yards in 7 of 11 games this season and scored 15 touchdowns on the ground.

• Spurs G De'Aaron Fox (at Pacers)

  • Points: 23.5 (21.8 - 26, 14, 29, 6, 27), Reb: 4.5 (3.6 - 1, 2, 4, 3, 7), Ast: 6.5 (6.0 - 7, 3, 3, 9, 6)

  • IND - L10 | Points Allowed: 119.1 (23rd), Reb Allowed: 47.8 (29th), Ast Allowed: 24.8 (5th)

  • Notes: Victor Wembanyama isn’t playing tonight after hyperextending his knee. Fox averaged 25.2 points per game when Wembanyama was out for 12 games between November and December. He’s been more inconsistent than usual with his star teammate back in the lineup, but expect Fox to step up with more on him again tonight.

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

5. Overtime

In the News

• At one point this season, the Colts were 7-1 and had over a 90% chance to make it back to the playoffs after a four-year drought. But they’re 1-7 since, and lost quarterback Daniel Jones, who had reinvented himself in Indianapolis, to injury, along with All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner, who the franchise traded for mid-season because they thought this was the year it could make a run. Where do they go from here?

• The Packers got another potential game-changer on defense from the Cowboys, as they picked up cornerback Trevon Diggs after he was released by Dallas. Diggs was two years into a five-year, $97 million contract but had 25 tackles and no interceptions in eight games this season. Green Bay gives up just 192.1 passing yards per game, seventh in the NFL, but was likely looking for added depth as it heads to the playoffs.

• The Dolphins are borrowing from ESPN to help the team pick its next general manager, as the franchise has brought on Hall of Fame quarterback and Monday Night Football analyst Troy Aikman as an adviser, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Miami is looking for a new general manager for the first time since 2016.

• The Orange Bowl didn’t look very full and tickets were going for just $39 on the secondary market. It was a very different feeling from the first round College Football Playoff matchups that took place at the home stadiums of the four better-ranked teams. Conference commissioners have until January 23rd to decide whether to add teams, adjust the format so multiple CFP rounds take place on campuses, or make any other changes. “The first-round games have been fantastic in every respect. I think it’s a differentiator,” Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark said.

• Another star Japanese pitcher is headed to MLB, as right-hander Tatsuya Imai signed a three-year contract with the Astros, according to CBS Sports’ Jim Bowden. Last season he had a 1.92 ERA and 178 strikeouts in 163 2/3 innings in Japan’s Nippon league. Imai, who is 27, unusually can opt-out after either of the first two years of the $63 million contract.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 1pm: Rice vs. Texas State [Armed Forced Bowl] on ESPN

• 4:30pm: Navy vs. Cincinnati [Liberty Bowl] on ESPN

• 7pm: No. 24 USC vs. No. 2 Michigan [MCBB] on Peacock

• 7:30pm: Nuggets vs. Cavaliers on Prime Video

• 8pm: No. 17 Arizona vs. SMU [Holiday Bowl] on FOX (or Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State [Duke’s Mayo Bowl] on ESPN)

• 8pm: Rangers vs. Panthers in NHL Winter Classic on TNT

• 9pm: No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 13 Nebraska [MCBB] on Peacock (or West Virginia vs. No. 3 Iowa State [MCBB] on ESPN2)

• 10pm: Thunder vs. Warriors on Prime Video