Matchups to Watch in the First Round at Wimbledon

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: NCAA realignment officially begins
- NL Home: Joey Ortiz over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs
- AL Home: Hunter Brown can pitch deep
- WNBA: Storm on track for big win
- Wimbledon: Round 1 begins today
- News: Paul George to 76ers

Texas and Oklahoma are officially members of the SEC as of today, as college football begins a new era this season with conference realignment. On August 1st, the Big Ten adds UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington, the Big 12 gets Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah, and the ACC welcomes Cal, Stanford, and SMU.

Off all the new additions, sportsbooks are tracking three schools to potentially have an immediate impact: On FanDuel, Utah (+300) is the favorite to win the Big 12 championship game in its first season, while Oregon (+200) and Texas (+350) both have the second-best odds in their conferences. Stanford (+50,000), UCLA (+20,000) and Arizona State (+11,000) are currently the least-likely newcomers to make a difference this season.

In today’s newsletter, Jack is covering a tough matchup for MacKenzie Gore against the Mets and Craig is looking for the Astros hot streak to continue. Chris is tracking round 1 at Wimbledon and is following the improved Seattle Storm in the WNBA.

MacKenzie Gore under 6.5 Ks (-154 at FanDuel)
MacKenzie Gore has been an effective swing-and-miss pitcher this season. The Nationals left-hander ranks in the 78th percentile in strikeout rate (26.6%) and has cleared this line in five of his last seven starts, but this is a brutal matchup for him. In 71 combined plate appearances against Gore, current Mets hitters have a .379 xwOBA, a .505 expected slugging percentage and a minuscule 12.7% strikeout rate. New York had the highest OPS, the highest wRC+ and the seventh-lowest K rate against lefties in June. It’s a lot of juice to swallow, but this number is way too high. 

Mets vs. Nationals over 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-118 at FanDuel)
We already detailed how well the Mets have performed against Gore in the past, but Washington’s matchup against David Peterson is better than it might seem. Peterson’s raw numbers this year are impressive. The lefty is 3-0 with a 3.67 ERA through five starts, but he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball. Peterson ranks in the third percentile in expected ERA (6.12), expected batting average (.296) and xwOBA (.380). Opposing teams consistently hit the ball hard against Peterson, but they haven’t been able to drive in as many runs as expected. That should change soon, so hopefully it starts on Monday. 

Brewers team total over 4.5 runs first 7 innings (-110 at DraftKings)
The Brewers couldn’t ask for a better matchup in this game. Rockies starter Austin Gomber ranks in the 15th percentile in expected batting average (.275) and the 17th percentile in expected ERA (4.87), and he’s given up at least four earned runs in four straight starts. The left-hander likely won’t pitch seven innings, and the Rockies bullpen has the highest ERA and WHIP in the league. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is batting .303 with a .817 OPS and a 135 wRC+ against lefties over the last week. Coors Field also has the highest park factor of any stadium in MLB, and the wind is projected to blow out to right-center field during the game. 

Joey Ortiz over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-115 at DraftKings)
Speaking of great matchups, Joey Ortiz will be licking his chops ahead of this one. The third baseman hit .318 with a 1.059 OPS and a 196 wRC+ against lefties in June. Gomber throws his 4-seam fastball and changeup a combined 63% of the time, which is great news for Ortiz because he ranks first on the Brewers in run value against changeups and second in run value against 4-seamers. He’s batting .500 with a .597 wOBA against changeups this season, so Gomber will be playing right into his hands. 

Astros moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)
The Astros went 17-8 in June and have won nine of 10. It’s a different story for the Blue Jays, who finished the month 11-16 and have lost seven of their last 10. Houston has won each of starter Hunter Brown’s last four starts. They’re certainly playing well as a team, but Brown is doing his part. He owns a 1.47 ERA and .178 BAA over his last seven starts.

Hunter Brown over 17.5 outs (-118 at FanDuel)
Brown has recorded at least 18 outs in each of his last seven starts, and his form suggests another deep outing. He’s limiting baserunners — 0.88 WHIP, 6.7% walk rate — and striking out 10.0 per nine innings over that span, so he’s doing the things that will allow him to pitch deep into the game against a Blue Jays team that OPS’d .689 in June.

Hunter Brown over 5.5 strikeouts (+116 at Caesars)
If there’s one thing the Blue Jays are doing well it’s avoiding punchouts at a high rate. They have a modest 20.2% strikeout rate in June, but have had a few extra holes in their swings in recent contests. Brown has been stellar overall since late May, a stretch that features a 29.1% strikeout rate. He’s reached the over in six straight starts, including two instances with nine punchouts.

Astros most hits (-135 at FanDuel)
The Astros completed a stellar month that put them within sight of the first-place Seattle Mariners. A dominant offense fueled their hot play as they scored nearly 5.5 runs per game and hit .281 over the course of June. Blue Jays starter Yariel Rodriguez has yet to hit his stride this season, allowing 21 hits across 16.1 innings. Astros starter Hunter Brown, meanwhile, has allowed a mere 27 hits across his last 43 innings. 

Seattle Storm -11 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Seattle Storm continue to play at a very high level since last week, catalyzed by their seminal win against the Connecticut Sun last Sunday. Seattle has walloped their last three opponents by double-digit margins while they enjoy a 3+ week stretch in front of their home fans. On Saturday they obliterated the Dallas Wings, the same program they'll face again tonight, and nothing about it was fluky. The Wings got arguably the biggest upset win of the season against the Lynx last week, but then quickly fell back to earth two days ago. Seattle's high-quality defense and resurgent offense should be too much again in the rematch.

Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury under 160 points (-112 at FanDuel)
The Phoenix Mercury just looked tired in the second half of their loss on Sunday hosting the Fever, which isn't a good sign with a back-to-back on their schedule. Insert the Connecticut Sun. The Sun stumbled again last Friday, somehow losing at home against an Atlanta Dream outfit that played over their heads all game, but this is a great opportunity for them to get back to form after three days of rest. Indiana has one of the worst defenses in the WNBA and they managed to limit the Mercury yesterday at home, putting the Sun's #2 rated defense in a great spot tonight. Connecticut totals have gone under 160 in 6 of their last 7 contests.

Monday
Karolina Muchova wins 2-1 (+340 at FanDuel)
Karolina Muchova was once one of the best women's tennis players in the world, before a wrist injury set her back in 2023. Off surgery earlier this year and returning with the same lofty expectations she always has, Muchova looked great at Eastbourne last week before more wrist concerns led to a walkover against Madison Keys. A battle versus Keys would have revealed more of Muchova's current form, but she draws Paula Badosa in the first round, an opponent who hasn't regained her top form since 2022 and plays better on clay. Badosa commands enough respect to win one set, so we'll look for a longer battle with the more refined competitor coming out on top.

Mattia Bellucci vs. Ben Shelton: Both Players Win a Set - Yes (-210 at FanDuel)
The 23-year old Mattia Bellucci is an inexperienced player still figuring out his game, most famous for providing long, challenging matches early in tournaments before better talents overcome his tenacity. His opponent is a perfect fit for another similar narrative. Ben Shelton is the definition of untapped potential. At just 21, the American often shows his young age by elementary mistakes on the court, something that's led to a pedestrian 1-3 record since the French Open. Shelton is stumbling into Wimbledon, and while his big-serve will earn him a set and probably a win, there's little chance he escapes unscathed.

Tommy Paul vs. Pedro Martinez: 6-0 set in Match - Yes (+425 at DraftKings)
This match has blowout potential written all over it. Tommy Paul is in top-form right now, best displayed in his tear through the Queen's Club Championships just two weeks ago, losing just 1 set in 5 matches and winning the tournament. He'll battle Pedro Martinez who, despite some good wins earlier in his career, has yet to win a single match on grass in 2024 and hasn't shown a modicum of confidence on the surface. Paul's versatility and aggressive nature should overwhelm Martinez early in the match, a recipe that can turn ugly fast when a top-player is performing at this high of a level. 

Tuesday
Katie Boulter wins 2-0 (-155 at FanDuel)
2024 Wimbledon could be Katie Boulter’s best chance at a deep Grand-Slam run. England’s #1 women’s player has been on a tear since the French Open. She won the Nottingham Open, which included impressive wins over Magdalena Frech, Emma Raducanu, Karolina Pliskova, and her fellow Brit, Harriet Dart, and she dominated Petra Martic and Jelena Ostapenko before a loss to red-hot Jasmine Paolini in the quarterfinals at Eastbourne. Tatjana Maria is a fine player, but for the value and with the home crowd behind her, it’s very unlikely that Boulter’s current form will suddenly regress enough to lose a set. 

Anna Blinkova (+128 at FanDuel)
It’s been a rough 6 months for Caroline Garcia. Now 30 and with perhaps her best tennis behind her, Garcia had a few nice moments early this season, like wins against Naomi Osaka in Sydney and Coco Gauff in Miami, but it’s largely been a stark drop in performance from what we’re used to from the former world’s #4. Since April, she’s been booted swiftly out of every tournament once she faced top-50 opponents. Anna Blinkova has struggled on grass in her career but she looked great at Bad Homburg last week. The 5’10” Russian is a power hitter who could make life very difficult for Garcia on this surface, and we just don’t trust the favorite’s current form — especially since she hasn’t competed since Roland Garros.