Brewers Outfielders Chourio and Yelich Have a Friendly Matchup

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: NBA free agency
- AL Home: Yankees’ 6.58 team ERA
- NL Home: Advantage Braves against White Sox
- WNBA: Watch Sun and Lynx defense
- Wimbledon: Leylah Fernandez looks sharp
- News: The rest of 2024 in sports

The beginning of the NBA free agency period has gotten off to a quick start with huge contracts and some unexpected movement. ESPN reported this morning that LeBron James is staying in LA to play with Bronny, as he’s signing a two-year, $104 maximum million contract. In case you missed anything, here are some of the other big moves so far:

In today’s newsletter, Craig is tracking Aaron Judge to continue carrying the Yankees during a tough stretch and Jack is looking for the Brewers to get chances against struggling Rockies starter Dakota Hudson. In Wimbledon action, Chris is following Emma Raducanu’s tough but winnable matchup today, and the British clash between Cameron Norrie and Jack Draper tomorrow. And Chris also has WNBA coverage, with the Lynx facing the Sun and Aces taking on the Mystics.

White Sox +0.5 first 5 innings (-104 at FanDuel)
Every start is an audition for Chicago right-hander Erick Fedde, who has logged at least six innings in each of his last four outings while limiting opponents to three runs or fewer three times. If the White Sox bats can remain conscious — they scored 26 runs across their last four games — they’ll be able to do enough to remain competitive against the Guardians and Gavin Williams, who’s making his 2024 debut.

Reds vs. Yankees over 8.5 runs (-110 at FanDuel)
The Yankees have combined to go over the total in nine of 10, thanks in part to their league-worst 6.58 ERA since June 14. That includes Carlos Rodon, who has allowed 20 earned runs across his last 13.2 innings (three starts). The Yankees are still hitting though, and while they have struggled against lefties, we like them to score some runs against Andrew Abbott, who has surrendered 16 homers in 89.2 innings.

Aaron Judge over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (-105 at DraftKings)
Judge has remained a one-man wrecking crew for the Yankees amid their recent skid. He’s gone over this number in six of his last seven and closed the month of June with a 1.144 OPS. The Yankees’ aforementioned struggles against southpaws don’t apply to Judge, who’s demolishing left-handed pitching to the tune of .323/.500/.754. The presence of Juan Soto, who features a .997 OPS, will allow Judge to keep seeing pitches to hit.

Jon Gray under 15.5 outs (-102 at FanDuel)
Jon Gray has yet to recapture his rhythm since rejoining the Rangers’ rotation in early June. He has only pitched beyond the fifth inning once over his last five turns, and he hasn’t thrown over 75 pitches since May 15. If lack of form doesn’t limit him tonight against a Padres team that bats .280 with a .333 on-base percentage on the road, it could very well be a lack of stamina.

Mariners moneyline (-118 at FanDuel)
Orioles starter Dean Kremer may be vulnerable, even against Seattle’s light-hitting lineup. He surrendered eight earned runs across his last 9.2 innings before hitting the shelf for six weeks with a triceps strain. The Mariners have won four of Logan Gilbert’s last five starts, and another victory will rely heavily on his performance. He has a 1.51 ERA across his last 35.2 innings and is limiting opponents to a .184 average at home.

Astros moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)
The Astros are one of the hottest teams in the league, Tuesday’s loss notwithstanding. They’ll turn to Ronel Blanco, who has limited opponents to one or zero runs in three of his last four and finished June with a 2.59 ERA overall. The Blue Jays are 12-17 since the start of June, and lefty Yusei Kikuchi posted a 6.26 ERA across his last six starts and completed six innings only once over that span.

Twins over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-125 at DraftKings)
The Tigers will turn to 23-year-old Keider Montero in place of Jack Flaherty against the Twins tonight. Advantage Twins. Montero has two starts under his belt — both losses — and allowed nine earned runs and three homers across 8.2 innings. He allowed the over in both of his starts, failing to make it through five innings. The Twins are playing good ball of late, winning three straight and seven of 10.

Jordan Hicks under 15.5 outs recorded (-164 at FanDuel)
Jordan Hicks isn’t an effective innings-eater for the Giants. The right-hander has gone under this line in 10 of his last 11 starts, and he’s averaged only 87.8 pitches per game in that span. A majority of those games were against much worse offenses than the Braves, too. This is a juicy tax to pay on a prop, but we feel it has a better chance of cashing than the -164 price implies (62.1%). 

Braves -1.5 (+105 at FanDuel)
We’re not done fading Hicks just yet. Chris Sale will be on the bump for the Braves, making this a mismatch worth targeting. Atlanta is 10-5 in Sale’s 15 starts this season, and all 10 of those wins came by more than one run. The left-hander has given up two or fewer earned runs in nine of his last 10 starts, whereas Hicks has surrendered eight earned runs in his last 9.0 innings of work. In 34 combined plate appearances against Sale, current Giants hitters have a .131 xBA and a .193 xwOBA. 

Mitchell Parker over 5.5 hits allowed (-125 at DraftKings)
Mitchell Parker isn’t an effective swing-and-miss pitcher. He pitches to contact and relies mostly on weak ground balls to generate outs, but that leaves him vulnerable to cheap hits. The left-hander has gone over this line in three straight starts, and this is a tough matchup against the Mets. New York has the highest batting average (.317), OPS (.937) and wRC+ (167) against lefties since June 1, so Parker will have to be lights out to go under this line. 

Brewers team total over 3.5 runs first 5 innings (+114 at DraftKings)
This is a full fade of Rockies starter Dakota Hudson, who’s recording career-worst marks in ERA (5.84) and WHIP (1.616). He’s been even worse at home with a 2.131 WHIP and a 191 OPS+. The right-hander ranks in the seventh percentile in xERA (5.56) and xBA (.289), and he’s given up 24 hits and 16 earned runs in his last three starts. In 40 combined plate appearances against Hudson, current Brewers hitters are batting .323 against him with a .475 xwOBA and a .663 xSLG.

Jackson Chourio over 0.5 runs scored (+120 at DraftKings)
As we just mentioned, the Brewers lineup should be able to have success in a great matchup at hitter-friendly Coors Field. If they do, Jackson Chourio will have a big say in it. The rookie outfielder is on fire with a .444 batting average, a 1.307 OPS and a 266 wRC+ against righties over the last 10 days. He’s scored at least one run in seven straight games and eight of his last 10. 

Christian Yelich and Ke’Bryan Hayes to record a hit parlay (-125 at FanDuel)
Both Christian Yelich and Ke’Bryan Hayes are staring down friendly matchups on Wednesday night. Yelich is 5-12 (.417) in his career against Colorado’s Hudson with two doubles and two home runs, and he’s batting .556 against righties over the last week. As for Hayes, he’s 8-19 (.421) in his career against the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas, and he has two multi-hit games in his last three games. 

Nick Castellanos to hit a home run (+330 at FanDuel)
Cubs starter Shota Imanaga is a solid fade target for a home run prop because he’s giving up the highest fly-ball rate (34.9%) and the 24th-highest barrel rate (9.6%) in MLB among 118 qualified pitchers. Nick Castellanos is one of the most consistent fly-ball hitters in the league (32.0%), and he hits for power much better against lefties. The Phillies outfielder has a 2.1% home run rate against righties and a 6.7% HR rate against lefties this year. With the wind projected to blow out to left field, Castellanos can take advantage of this friendly matchup.

Thursday
Lynx -1 (-110 at DraftKings)
The last meeting between Connecticut and Minnesota was very early in the WNBA season, an OT battle where the Sun escaped after letting the Lynx come back in the second and third quarters. A more refined Lynx squad, and the Commissioner's Cup champions we might add, will seek revenge at home in this rematch — and they could use a win for an extra boost in confidence. After winning the Commissioner's Cup, Minnesota lost two of its last three games, including a head-scratching fail against the under-talented Dallas Wings. Back in front of their fans and against a Sun squad that doesn't have a true star like Napheesa Collier, this is a great opportunity for the Lynx to get-right. 

Sun vs. Lynx under 155 points (-110 at FanDuel and DraftKings)
This is a very sharp total set for this big matchup, right between the area where WNBA games turn from lower to higher-scoring. Of course we could see it going either way, too, since the Sun and Lynx share the two-top marks defensively in the WNBA but both programs can put up points in marquee games when they need to. The problem with that expectation is Minnesota has only averaged 75 ppg in their last 3 contests and now they're facing an outfit that's almost exclusively a part of low-scoring affairs because of their A+ defense and slow pace. This should be a physical, tight battle.

Mystics vs. Aces first half over 86.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Last time these two teams met, just five days ago, they scored 98 points in the first half before the game slowed down tremendously in the second, a bad-beat for over-bettors but a trend we've seen in many WNBA games as of late. The "natural state" of both programs is to run the floor at a fast pace in an effort to outscore their opponents on the way to victory. That won't change in this battle. If anything, after a head-scratching 67-point second half in their first exchange, both offenses should be eager to show their best. 

Wednesday
Emma Raducanu 2-1 (+270 at FanDuel)
You won't catch Elise Mertens in any Grand Slam finals these days, but she also isn't the type of player any opponent would want to face on their way to the quarterfinals. Mertens has been in the tennis game for 10 years and after some nice singles success in 2018-19, she turned to doubles as her focus, where she's now one half of the #1-ranked women's team in the world. Emma Raducanu won but didn't look particularly sharp in the first round, something she'll need to correct if she hopes to surpass Mertens, who is rarely lacking focus. Raducanu is more explosive and her top form should be too much when it matters, but it won't come easy.

Thursday
Iga Swiatek vs. Elise Mertens under 17.5 total games (-105 at DraftKings)
Like Elise Mertens, Petra Martic isn't the opponent you want to face when off your game. The 33-year old Croatian has seen it all in her long career, and she's had a ton of success in smaller-market tournaments. But since a shocking upset loss to Linda Noskova at the Australian Open, Iga Swiatek has been completely unflappable. Her aggressive forehand and relentless baseline movement will be too much for the veteran, and unless a rare mental error gives Martic an opportunity, the Pole should have little trouble sending her packing, maybe in 13-14 games.

Leylah Fernandez 2-0 (+160 at DraftKings)
Caroline Wozniacki's comeback tour continues as she hopes to rediscover the magic she once held in 2018, but this is a bad draw for her chances. Leylah Fernandez has been a beast on grass this season, making it to the finals at Eastbourne and getting caught by a resurgent Aija Tomljanovic in Birmingham, an opponent who's always a tough puzzle to solve. But the Canadian is made for the surface, with assertive forehands and fluid, athletic movement that can easily unsettle Wozniacki and push her to her physical limits. Wozniacki is still the more refined of the two, but we love Leylah's momentum.

Cameron Norrie vs. Jack Draper over 38.5 total games (-120 at DraftKings)
Cameron Norrie and Jack Draper clash on Thursday in London in what promises to be a highly entertaining battle between two Brits. Cameron Norrie has spoken at length about his excitement for the match, acknowledging his rare position as an underdog against Britain's new #1 in men's singles, a guy who knocked off Carlos Alcarez at the Queen's Club Championships. Draper's first round contest wasn't as easy as Norrie's, who swept his opponent, but the young-gun found his rhythm late and showed why many think he could go far in Wimbledon. Norrie's huge serve and Draper's tenacity should make for a long, emotional affair.