Will No. 1 Sinner Drop Another Set in Round 3 at Wimbledon?

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Euro 2024 quarters
- Wimbledon: Ons Jabeur back on her game
- Column: NHL free agency
- MLB: Can A’s win streak last?
- WNBA: Watch the late night underdogs
- More MLB: Good opportunity for Jose Miranda
- News: AFC’s under-appreciated players

The Euro 2024 quarterfinals take place today and tomorrow with only one big underdog left in the field: Turkey is +3600 to lift the trophy. England and Spain are co-favorites at most sportsbooks (+390 at FanDuel), with France and tournament host Germany close behind (both at +480).

In today’s newsletter, Chris isn’t looking for Coco Gauff or Jannik Sinner to be upset in Round 3 at Wimbledon, but wouldn’t be surprised by either dropping a set today. Craig is covering the Red Sox vs. Yankees series with the teams headed in different directions. Jack is tracking Padres starter Randy Vasquez to continue to struggle. Chris is back with a couple WNBA underdog opportunities late tonight. And Abby’s column focuses on NHL free agency, but from fans’ perspectives.

Sonay Kartal to win a set — Yes (+230 at FanDuel)
Sonay Kartal is a great story. The 22-year-old is a star in British tennis circles but relatively unknown to most fans. Overcoming some "health scares" last season, Kartal is back competing this year and has made the most of her time at Wimbledon, pushing through the qualifiers and knocking off two formidable opponents in Sorana Cirstea and Clara Burel to lead into her third round clash with Coco Gauff. Gauff is unquestionably a huge favorite and most will assume she'll conquer Kartal easily, but the underdog is a dangerous, unfamiliar opponent with the home crowd behind her, an intangible we cannot ignore.

Jannik Sinner 3-1 (+300 at FanDuel)
Miomir Kecmanović's recent win over the ultra-dangerous Talion Griekspoor is a great sign for the Serbian, a steady player who's rank has fluctuated between top-30 and top-50 for the last few years. This is usually where his grand-slam runs end, abruptly in the third round when he faces a greater challenge, and that should present no differently on Friday. Jannik Sinner, this year's Australian Open champion, is playing with a calculated, focused disposition in London, winning his first two matches in 4 sets as he eases in after a disappointing ending at Roland Garros. We like that pace to continue against an opponent that has the big serve and discipline to hang around, at least for one set.

Saturday
Xinyu Wang 2-0 (+110 at FanDuel and DraftKings)
Harriet Dart's win against Katie Boulter was a big moment for the #2 ranked Brit. Always in Boutler's shadow, Dart had been winless against her British nemesis the last two years. Yesterday, Dart could be seen visibly crying down 6-2 in the third set tiebreaker, but in the end she found a way to come out the victor. The emotion of finally beating her arch-rival will set in a feeling of accomplishment for Dart, which we hate for her chances on Saturday. Xinyu Wang has been a quiet-killer in tournament play this season, losing only to top names, and Dart is the kind of opponent she's dominated with ease throughout Spring.

Ons Jabeur 2-1 (+260 at FanDuel)
Ons Jabeur is flying under the radar a bit but don't let that fool you. Her easy conquest of Robin Montgomery, a rising American who had some very impressive moments leading up to Wimbledon, in the second round was a great sign for the Tunisian star. Ons has thrived in London, making it to the finals the last two years, as grass is a perfect compliment for her crafty style. Of course Elina Svitolina is no easy opponent. The Ukrainian was stellar in her 17-game decimation of Julie Neimeier in the second round, and she's also seen success recently at Wimbledon, but we'll give Ons the nod in what should be a long, instant classic.

Elena Rybakina 2-1 (+260 at FanDuel)
Caroline Wozniacki was sensational on Thursday, losing the second set to Leylah Fernandez, then rediscovering her form and overcoming the talented Canadian in the third. Elena Rybakina will be a different challenge. The Kazakhstani has the same ice-cold disposition and execution that we saw in her Wimbledon run two years ago, but she also has a tendency to let opponents hang around. We can't take the former Australian Open winner against this version of Rybakina, but Wozniacki looks very comfortable on grass and we expect her to take advantage of her opponent's habitual mental lapses.

Oh the beauty and drama of NHL Free Agency. Following the NHL Draft and the few trades we witnessed then, free agency officially opened at noon on July 1st. Hockey fans have been watching closely over the past week, on the edge of our seats with high hopes that our favorite players re-sign or sign, while also fearing the worst: having to throw away our $200 dollar jerseys with a name on the back that broke our hearts.

I was going to compose another “Ask the Experts” column to get favorite and least favorite moves from friends that are dialed-in the most to the NHL. But then I thought to myself, some of the die-hard fans I know could be considered experts themselves. Many of them probably follow the organizations more closely than anyone because they are focused on one team rather than the entire league. And let’s be honest…at the end of the day, us experts are fans of the sport too.

Click here to continue reading Abby’s column on our website

Yankees vs. Red Sox under 8.5 runs (-115 at DraftKings)
Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck was roughed up his last time out, but he was dominant across his preceding 13-start stretch that included 12 quality starts, a 2.21 ERA, and .199 BAA. He also has a 0.92 WHIP and 1.85 ERA on the road. Yankees starter Nestor Cortes, meanwhile, is lights out at home with a 1.84 ERA and .195 BAA. He pitched well against the Braves and Orioles in his most recent starts in the Bronx.

Guardians -1.5 (+130 at FanDuel)
The Guardians are dominant at home according to their win-loss record and run differential. They’ll host the Giants, who struggle on the road in both aforementioned departments. The Giants have hit a bit of a stride of late, winning seven of 10, but they’ve failed to cover in each of their last five losses. Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee posted a 2.86 ERA with 40 strikeouts across five June starts (28.1 innings).

Orioles -1.5 (-111 at FanDuel)
Forgive us for ignoring the Athletics’ three-game win streak, all against the Angels. The Orioles just went 2-1 against the spread (and straight up) against the Mariners in Seattle, where opponents average a league-worst 2.93 runs per game. They won’t be challenged to the same degree offensively. And Orioles pitchers, Albert Suarez in this case, shouldn’t have much trouble against an offense with the third lowest wOBA (.290) in the league since June 1.

Ryan O’Hearn over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+110 at DraftKings)
Ryan O’Hearn has been one of the most productive Orioles hitters since the beginning of June, batting .326/.381/.516. He has pronounced platoon splits, including a .366 wOBA against right-handed pitching, and gone over this number in three of his last four. O’Hearn will face off against righty Hogan Harris, whose 5.52 xERA and 1.31 WHIP suggests his 3.18 comes with a heavy dose of good fortune.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners under 3.5 runs first 5 innings (+120 at DraftKings)
The Mariners become the stingiest team when they play at T-Mobile Park, where they’re allowing a mere 2.93 runs per game. That dominance extends to right-hander Luis Castillo, whose ERA and WHIP are significantly lower at home. The Blue Jays are well below .500 since the beginning of June, while the Mariners are bottom five in wOBA, slugging, and strikeout percentage, leading us to anticipate a low-scoring contest, especially early.

Kevin Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts (-135 at DraftKings)
We mentioned the Mariners’ strikeout percentage, a league-high 28.1% rate since June 1. Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman is “only” striking out a batter per inning after posting 10-plus K/9 in each of his last five seasons. Gausman struck out 11.3 per nine in May, so he certainly hasn’t forgotten how to miss bats, and the Mariners’ propensity to swing and miss should allow Guasman’s power arsenal to play up.

Astros vs. Twins under 8 runs (-105 at FanDuel)
We’re looking at the overall form of both teams more than the individual pitching matchup of Pablo Lopez vs. Shawn Dubin. The Twins and Astros are playing well of late. Houston is 8-2 in their last 10 and only two games out of first place. Minnesota is 7-3 over their last 10 and firmly entrenched in the wildcard race. Don’t be surprised if the opening game of this series is a tight, low-scoring affair.

Los Angeles +12.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
On paper all you'll see are Ws in the win-loss column for Las Vegas and all you'll see are Ls for Los Angeles. Naturally, the reigning champions will appear as strong favorites against one of the worst outfits in the WNBA, but a deeper look shows a miscalculation in the marketplace. The Sparks have played hard against the Aces in two matches this year, losing by only 4-point and 7-point margins, and this is a quick travel spot, back-to-back for Las Vegas after a dominating win at home against Washington last night. This clash will matter way more for the home team.

Chicago Sky +10 (-110 at FanDuel)
One of two late games on the Friday WNBA slate provides a great sell-high, buy-low spot on two teams that are much closer to even than oddsmakers want us to believe. The Chicago Sky continue to play very formidable defense, ranking in the top-5 this season, and their front court is more formidable than ever with Angel Reese, who's earning double-doubles on a nightly basis. Perceptions on the Storm have never been higher after two straight annihilations of the Wings and four wins in a row, but scoring won't come as easy tonight, and only two of Chicago's 11 losses have been by 11+ margins.

Jose Miranda over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-135 at DraftKings)
We were surprised to see this line priced at 1.5 instead of 2.5 on one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Over the last 15 days, Joe Miranda is batting .457 with 16 RBIs and 10 runs scored. The third baseman has been even better against right-handed pitching, as he’s batting .552 with a 1.359 OPS in that same span, and the Astros will be rolling with righty Shawn Dubin to start this game. 

Royals -1.5 first 5 innings (+124 at DraftKings)
This might be the biggest pitching mismatch on Friday’s slate. Ragans should have success forcing swings and misses from the Rockies lineup. Colorado is also batting just .188 with a .622 OPS and a 62 wRC+ against southpaws over the past 10 days. On the other side, current Royals hitters have a .330 xBA, a .389 xwOBA and a .579 xSLG in 54 combined plate appearances against Kyle Freeland. 

Cole Ragans 10+ strikeouts (+310 at DraftKings)
This is a great spot to get aggressive with an alternate strikeouts prop. Cole Ragans ranks in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate (32.1%) and the 90th percentile in strikeout rate (29.8%) this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies have the second-highest whiff rate and the second-lowest chase contact rate in the league. Colorado has been struggling mightily against lefties, as it has a 32.2% K rate over the last 10 days. 

Nester Cortes over 6.5 Ks (+110 at DraftKings)
Nasty Nester Cortes has gone over this line just once in his last five starts, but this is a dream matchup for him to rack up some strikeouts. The Red Sox have a whopping 39.1% strikeout rate against lefties over the last 10 days, which is by far the worst mark in the league. Boston is also batting only .167 with a .556 OPS against southpaws in that same span. In 36 combined plate appearances against Cortes, current Red Sox hitters have a 30.6% K rate. 

Randy Vasquez under 14.5 outs recorded (+140 at DraftKings)
Randy Vasquez has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this year. The Padres right-hander has a .334 xBA and a 6.65 xERA, both of which rank in the 1st percentile among all starters. The Diamondbacks have a .786 OPS and a 121 wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks, and this is a matchup where they’ll be able to tee off in a hitter-friendly park. Vasquez may not last very long in this one. 

Nick Castellanos and Willson Contreras to record a hit parlay (-112 at FanDuel)
Nick Castellanos is pacing the Phillies offense with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto all out of the lineup. The veteran outfielder is batting .417 over the last week, and he’s 9-14 (.643) with a home run and a double against Max Fried in his career. Willson Contreras also has a great matchup, as Patrick Corbin has the worst xBA (.320) in MLB among qualified pitchers. Contreras is batting .333 against southpaws this season.

Austin Riley to hit a home run (+420 at FanDuel)
Austin Riley loves facing off against Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola. In 63 career plate appearances against the right-hander, Riley is batting .367 and slugging .700 with five home runs and five doubles. The Braves third baseman is batting .343 and slugging .571 against righties over the last two weeks, and this is about as good of a matchup as he could ask for. This wind is also projected to blow out to left field during the game, which can only help Riley’s cause.