Michael King Strikeouts, Juan Soto Getting on Base are Worth Watching Today

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Parity in the WNBA
- AL Games: Orioles can limit runs with Corbin Burnes
- NL Games: Potential slugfest in NY
- WNBA: Matinees to watch today
- Wimbledon: Men’s and women’s semifinal action
- News: College football coaches on the hot seat

There’s been a lot of talk about the super teams and a certain rookie in the WNBA this season, but an under-covered aspect of the league is how much parity there is right now. Eight of the 12 teams are over .500 in their past 10 games — that includes the Washington Mystics, who started the year 0-12.

The New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun have set the pace this season, while the Minnesota Lynx won the Commissioner’s Cup and the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces have won eight of 10 after a slow start. And after seven years in a row as a bottom-four team, Caitlin Clark’s Indiana Fever are showing signs of life and are over .500 at home.

Rays over 3.5 runs (-132 at FanDuel)
The Yankees’ struggles have largely been on the pitching side, with a 5.10 ERA since June 1 — second worst in the league behind the Rockies. Marcus Stroman hasn’t been able to halt the slide, pitching to a 5.74 ERA across his last six starts. He’s not working particularly deep into games either — he completed six frames once over his last six starts — potentially leaving a lot on the plate for a struggling Yankees ‘pen.

Juan Soto over 1.5 runs + hits + RBI (-135 at DraftKings)
Juan Soto is struggling in July, but we’ve seen him shrug off a slump at a moment’s notice. And facing off against Zach Eflin might be exactly what he needs. Soto is 13 for 28 with two homers and three doubles against the Rays right-hander, and he recorded a pair of hits, including a double, against Eflin in their meeting on April 20. He’ll have a good opportunity to make some noise against Eflin tonight.

Twins -1.5 — Game 2 (-112 at DraftKings)
The Twins and White Sox will play two today, and we like Minnesota in the nightcap behind Pablo Lopez, whose advanced pitching metrics suggest he’s performing better than his surface-level stats indicate. On the other side, White Sox right-hander Drew Thorpe has found success against some of the league’s worst offenses — notice he was knocked around by the hot-hitting Diamondbacks. The Twins are the league’s highest scoring offense since June 1.

Drew Thorpe under 4.5 strikeouts (-128 at FanDuel)
Thorpe has tossed at least six frames in his last three starts and allowed only seven hits across those 18.1 innings. Here’s the catch: those three turns came against the Marlins, Tigers, and Rockies, who rank 30th, 23rd, and 21st respectively in runs scored since June 1. The Twins are a different class of offense right now, ranking first in runs scored with the second-lowest strikeout percentage (17.4) over that span.

Cubs vs. Orioles under 8.5 runs (-110 at Caesars)
Baltimore won seven of Corbin Burnes’ last nine starts, and the All-Star right-hander has a 2.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP across his last six turns, so we like them to be sharp tonight, especially coming off of a loss. His opposite number, lefty and fellow All-Star Shota Imanaga, hasn’t been quite as befuddling as he was early on, but he’s still pitching well overall and it will be the O’s first time seeing him.

Corbin Burnes under 5.5 hits allowed (-154 at Caesars)
Burnes has been sharp this season overall and in recent starts in spite of diminished strikeout numbers. He’s limited opponents to 34 hits over his last 40 innings, and held opposing lineups under 5.5 hits in four of his last six turns. And even though Burnes isn’t striking out as many batters, he should still miss his fair share of Cubs bats, as they are striking out at a 25.1% clip since the start of June.

Rangers over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (+124 at DraftKings)
The Rangers are 7-3 over their last 10 and have won five straight compared to the Angels, who are in the midst of a three-game skid with a 2-8 mark over their last 10. Angels starter Griffin Canning has allowed four runs in four of his last five starts, so we like the chances of the streaking Rangers to jump on the Halos early tonight.

Cardinals -0.5 first 5 innings — Game 2 (-110 at DraftKings)
This is a tale of two offenses going in opposite directions. The Cardinals are scorching hot at the plate right now, as they rank second in MLB in batting average (.320) and wRC+ (151) against righties since the start of July. The Royals, on the other hand, rank 24th in wRC+ over that same span. Current Royals hitters are batting just .213 with a .302 xwOBA against Sonny Gray, while current Cardinals hitters are batting .343 with a .407 xwOBA against Michael Wacha.

Mets -0.5 first 3 innings (-120 at DraftKings)
It’s usually not a bad idea to fade Patrick Corbin. The Nationals starter ranks in the first percentile in xBA (.315), the second percentile in xERA (6.25) and the first percentile in pitching run value (-19). He’s also struggled in this matchup throughout his career, as current Mets hitters are batting .309 with a .386 xwOBA and a .537 xSLG against him in 244 combined plate appearances. Look for New York to jump on Corbin early and open up a lead. 

Nationals vs. Mets over 9.5 runs (-105 at FanDuel)
Sticking with the same game, this is a delicious recipe for an over. We already detailed Corbin’s struggles this season, but Luis Severino hasn’t been much better of late. The Mets starter has given up 28 hits and 17 earned runs over his last four starts, and the Nats have the fourth-highest wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks. The kicker, though, is the strong wind projected to blow out to left-center field during the game. The forecast is calling for gusts of up to 40 miles per hour, so this could turn into a home run derby. 

Phillies team total over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (+100 at DraftKings)
This Phillies lineup has been ravaged by injuries recently, but it’s starting to creep back to full strength. Trea Turner is absolutely on fire since his return to the lineup, and both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber came off the injured list on Tuesday to help Philadelphia drop 10 runs on the Dodgers. The Phils look like they’re about to go on a tear offensively, and it should continue on Wednesday night against Gavin Stone.

Michael King 10+ strikeouts (+520 at FanDuel)
Let’s have some fun with an alternate line, shall we? Michael King has already recorded double-digit strikeouts three times this season, and this is the easiest matchup he’s faced. The Mariners have a 34.4% strikeout rate over the last two weeks, which is by far the worst mark in the league. Seattle has the lowest zone contact rate and the third-highest whiff rate in baseball, so this is a great spot for King to attack the zone and rack up Ks. 

Brenton Doyle and William Contreras to record a hit parlay (+103 at FanDuel)
It’s surprising to see Brenton Doyle priced so low to record a hit considering how hot he’s been at the plate. The Rockies outfielder is batting .500 with a 1.683 OPS over the last week, and he has at least one hit in seven of his last eight games. As for William Contreras, he’s batting .345 against lefties this season, and he’s 3-5 in his career against Martin Perez with a double and a home run. 

Francisco Lindor to hit a home run (+350 at FanDuel)
Remember how we said this Nationals-Mets game could turn into a home run derby? Well, we would be doing a disservice if we didn’t target at least one home run prop with Corbin on the mound and an extremely strong wind helping the hitters out. Francisco Lindor is batting .317 and slugging .585 with three home runs in his career against Corbin, and he has one of the highest fly-ball rates (31.0) in MLB. All he needs to do is get one up in the air and watch it fly.

Mystics vs. Fever 1Q over 42.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)
The market is overcorrecting this total. In their last 10 games, the Fever are the best offense in the association in the first quarter, averaging 24 ppg and running at a blitzing pace, easily the quickest in the WNBA. Meanwhile, the Mystics underperformed in each of the first quarters in two previous meetings (36 combined points), and they're coming off a 14-pointer versus an angry Minnesota defense. They’re due for a much better performance. Lastly, in their last 10 first quarters, no two WNBA teams own a better effective field goal percentage than Indiana and Washington. If this early total doesn't exceed 43, it's an obvious outlier. 

Angel Reese under 12.5 rebounds (+105 at DraftKings)
Fading Angel Reese’s rebound-prop is not an easy move. The rookie sensation has eclipsed 11.5 rebounds in 7 of her last 9 games, a remarkable feat for any player, let alone a rookie, but now we’re seeing significant movement in the market. Reese’s line is up to 13.5 at many books! The last time Chicago faced Atlanta, she racked up an incredible 19 boards, a dominant front court performance and major reason why the Sky won. Atlanta must limit Reese or risk another L — they know that and now the rookie has a target on her back. This qualifies as a great regression spot.

Dream vs. Sky under 158 points (-110 at Bovada)
Somehow in two previous meetings the Dream and Sky have eclipsed 160 points each time, but there's plenty of reason to anticipate regression tonight. For starters, the Dream and Sky are not great offensive teams. This season the Sky rate 9th among all teams, while the Dream are dead last. Through their last 7 games, it's even worse (CHI: 10th, ATL: 11th). The Dream run at a very slow tempo (10th overall), which conflicts with the Sky's top-4 pace, but it's the Dream who are seeking revenge this time. We like that for today's over, since Chicago shot a ridiculous 47% from the field and 43% from beyond the arc in their last clash. 

Aces -4 (-110 at Bookmaker)
The Aces and the Storm meet for the third time this season, following two very different previous results. In their first matchup in early June, Las Vegas was in their slump, failing to find enough rhythm on offense and barely playing any defense to speak of. Shortly after that loss, they returned to form. The Aces spanked the Storm in their second meeting, overwhelming their rival on both sides of the court early and coasting through all four quarters. Now on a roll, Vegas has won 7 of their last 8 games, averaging 93 ppg, and owning a +99 cumulative point-differential during that span. Home or not, we doubt Seattle can keep up.

Dallas vs. Phoenix under 174 points (-106 at FanDuel)
Fading overreactions in the marketplace may not work in the short term, but in the long term it pays off. It would be very easy to blindly bet the over; just look at their three previous meetings. Dallas and Phoenix combined for 199, 187, and 200 points in purely offensive battles, no doubt stimulated by the fast-playing style of each team. On the other hand, since the start of June, 10 of the last 13 Mercury games have gone far under today’s total (in regulation). The same could be said for 11 out of the last 16 contests for Dallas. These are two offenses rated outside the top-5, and both defenses know how poorly they’ve performed in their previous matchups. 

Thursday
Jasmine Paolini wins 2-0 (+145 at DraftKings)
Jasmine Paolini is playing out of her mind. After Emma Navarro's impressive run, the American became one of the favorites to win Wimbledon. Paolini, who had dropped two previous matches against Navarro, showed no intimidation. The surging Italian is covering the court brilliantly and landing returns no matter what the situation or who her opponent is; it's been startling to watch. As much as we give Donna Vekic credit for her current form, it pales in comparison to what we've seen from Paolini. The 5'4" game-wrecker is relentless and has shown zero flaws in her game, giving us no reason to fade her in any regard at this juncture.

Friday
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev over 3.5 sets (-210 at FanDuel)
Daniil Medvedev would win Grand Slams constantly if guys like Carlos Alcaraz didn't exist. Alcaraz, the phenom from Spain, remains the favorite to win Wimbledon straight up, but his journey has been rather perilous. Alcaraz has dropped one set in each of his last three matches, two to big server Francis Tiafoe. Meanwhile, Medvedev is coming off one of the biggest wins of his career, unseating world #1 Jannik Sinner for the first time in their last six clashes, and should be teeming with confidence heading into Friday’s battle. The Russian's big serve and current form are expected to prolong this match; we'll swallow the juice for what's still great value.