Aces Should Come Out Quick Against Struggling Dream

In today’s newsletter…

Las Vegas Aces 1H -8.5 (-105 at Bovada)
This is the third road game in a row for Vegas, aka a "tough spot," and that's about the only advantage their opponent has on Friday. The Atlanta Dream have not been doing well lately. They've lost 8 of their last 9 games and their offense, which already wasn't very good, has sunk to dead-last in the WNBA. A team predicated by defense this season, even Atlanta's defensive efficiency has dropped to a rank in the bottom half of the league. Since the Aces turned around their season in mid-June, they've won 7 of their last 8 and only the Lynx have a better net rating in the first half. Maybe they tire out late, but we trust the champions to pounce early.

Mercury vs. Fever over 175 points (-110 at BetOnline)
When a total comes out this aggressive it's usually for good reason. The Mercury are finding ways to win games, even without Diana Taurasi, but the wily veteran and future hall-of-famer is set to return for their second battle against the Fever. Since the beginning of June, the Mercury and Fever have been two very similar outfits. They've been thriving offensively (top-5), they both run at a fast pace, they're two of the best shooting teams in the association (top-3), and their defense has regressed (Phoenix is 8th, Indiana is 10th). Caitlin Clark and the Fever should explode at home after a disappointing loss the other night, too. Expect fireworks in this one!

Lynx vs. Storm under 155 points (-110 at BetOnline)
This total may seem low but recent history tells a different story. The Lynx offense has regressed significantly, ranked second-worst in the association in their last seven games. Their defense has not regressed at all. The Lynx and Storm are ranked 1st and 2nd respectively in defensive efficiency the last two weeks, and while Seattle's offense has been pretty good, neither team runs at a fast pace (Minnesota is exceptionally slow). It also helps that the best offensive player on the floor, Napheesa Collier, might not play. We expect her to be limited at least, since she's been off all week with a foot injury. This defensive battle may not reach 145.

Athletes. They are human beings. One of the things I have always taken pride in as a reporter is the ability to bridge the gap between player and fan. That means I have a unique responsibility to be a credible and respected voice for the athletes. Every reporter has their own style and beliefs when it comes to journalism and reporting, and in this day and age with social media, it’s valuable to have every type of reporting style. 

There are different elements that we all bring to the table when it comes to our contributions in covering sports in a world where platforms like Twitter can feel saturated. When news breaks, think of how quickly it gets to social media and the number of people and outlets that are simply restating and re-sharing the news. Of course we need the people that break the news, but then how do you add other layers and elements to the story?

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Athletics @ Phillies over 9 runs (-105 at DraftKings)
Ranger Suarez going up against the Athletics sounds like a smash spot for the under, but not so fast. Oakland actually leads MLB in OPS (1.353), ISO (.448) and ranks second in wRC+ (271) against left-handers this month. Suarez also isn’t the same pitcher he was earlier in the season, as the southpaw has given up 24 hits and 11 earned runs in his last 15.2 innings of work. If the A’s can stay hot against the struggling Suarez, we trust the Phillies to do their job and get this over the total.

Sean Manaea under 1.5 earned runs allowed (+120 at DraftKings)
After a shaky start to the season, Sean Manaea has found a groove of late. The Mets veteran has given up only one earned run and nine hits in his last 18.0 innings of work, and he’s staring down a great matchup on Friday night. The Rockies are one of the worst lineups in MLB against left-handed pitching, and they’re batting just .205 with a wRC+ of 71 against lefties since the start of July. 

Sonny Gray over 6.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)
Sonny Gray loves facing off against the Cubs. In 62 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, current Cubs hitters have a 32.3% strikeout rate and just a .319 xwOBA. Gray ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout rate (31.1%) and the 69th percentile in whiff rate (27.9%) this season, and Chicago has the fifth-highest K rate (26.3%) against righties over the last three weeks. 

Ian Happ over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+120 at DraftKings)
Happ is on a heater at the plate right now. The Cubs outfielder is batting .333 with a 1.248 OPS over the last 15 days. He also leads the team in home runs (five) and RBIs (16) and ranks second in runs scored (11) in that span. In 14 career at-bats against Cardinals starter Sonny Gray, Happ is batting .462 and slugging .846 with a home run and two doubles. He could clear this prop with one swing. 

Randy Vasquez over 5.5 hits allowed (+110 at DraftKings)
This isn’t the first time we’ve faded Randy Vasquez, and it likely won’t be the last. The Padres right-hander is allowing opposing hitters to bat .332 with a .358 BApip, and he ranks in the first percentile in xBA (.316) among qualified pitchers. Not only has Vasquez gone over this line in seven of his 12 starts this season, but he surrendered 10 hits in his lone start against the Braves in May. 

Austin Riley and Trea Turner to record a hit parlay (-115 at FanDuel)
We just detailed how we like Atlanta’s matchup against Vasquez, and no one in the Braves lineup is hotter than Austin Riley. Riley is batting .375 with a 1.213 OPS against righties this month. He’s recorded a hit in nine of his last 10 starts and has five hits in his last eight at-bats. Trea Turner is batting a ridiculous .407 over the last 15 days, and he’s recorded a hit in 18 of his 21 games since returning from the IL. 

Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+470 at FanDuel)
Giants’ starter Kyle Harrison is a great fade target for a home run prop because he throws a ton of 4-seam fastballs (61.9%) and gives up a high barrel rate (10.6%). Byron Buxton has a .632 xSLG against 4-seam fastballs this season, and he’s on fire with a .436 batting average, a .846 slugging percentage and three homers over the last 15 days.

Jasmine Paolini to win (+120 at Bovada and BetOnline)
Even when Jasmine Paolini looks down and out, she finds a way. In one of the most entertaining matches we've seen at Wimbledon, Donna Vekic battled the Italian in a 31-game barnburner that led to a tiebreak in the third set. Vekic's serve and form was stellar throughout the match, but Paolini's unmatchable energy and calm under pressure was the difference. Barbora Krejcikova was equally impressive in her win over Elena Rybakina, dropping the first set but rallying in the latter two. This is an evenly matched final to determine the next champion, but we love Paolini's incomparable movement to make the difference one more time.

Dodgers vs. Tigers under 8 runs (-105 at FanDuel)
All-Star lefty Tarik Skubal is tasked with keeping things rolling for the Tigers. They’re 7-3 over their last 10 after taking three of four from the Guardians. He has a tough test in the Dodgers, but left-handed hitters are mustering a putrid .474 OPS against him. The Tigers are swinging the bats better of late, but their .659 OPS against southpaws will be put to the test against James Paxton, who’s still capable if not consistent. 

Yankees vs. Orioles under 9 runs (-112 at FanDuel)
Gerrit Cole and Orioles rookie left-hander Cade Povich faced off on June 19, setting the stage for a 7-6 Orioles win in extra innings. The Yankees have been in a tailspin since, while the Orioles are currently 4-6 over their last 10 and in the midst of a three-game slide. While pitching has been the guiltiest party responsible for the Yankees’ struggles, they still struggle against lefties, and are averaging a modest four runs per game in July.

Under 3.5 Pirates batters in 1st inning (+125 at DraftKings)
White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet continues to shine with a 2.16 ERA over his last seven starts. His first-inning dominance is especially noteworthy, as he’s holding opponents to a .136 average and 0.53 WHIP in the opening frame. Perhaps the best advantage in Crochet’s favor is unfamiliarity. The only Pirate who has seen Garrett Crochet is Michael Taylor, who has a grand total of one at-bat against him.

Astros -1.5 (+135 at Caesars)
We can’t ignore the home/road splits that Houston and Texas carry into this spot. The Astros at home (27-19, +60 run differential) versus the Rangers on the road (20-28, -32 run differential) presents a mismatch on paper. We’re also looking at a bounce back effort from Houston starter Hunter Brown. Prior to struggling in his last start, Brown produced a 1.29 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over an eight-start stretch. 

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-140 at DraftKings)
The Astros are on a nice roll, climbing to within two games of the first-place Seattle Mariners, and they’re in position to continue applying the pressure. Much of that is thanks to how well slugger Yordan Alvarez is hitting, and specifically how well he fares against lefties (.342/.398/.561) and Rangers southpaw Andrew Heaney. Alvarez is 9 for 19 with a double and homer against Heaney, and he’s gone over the number in five of his last eight.

Guardians moneyline (+120 at FanDuel)
Despite dropping three of four in Detroit, the Guardians are still three games over .500 on the road, compared to the Rays who are sub-.500 at home. Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco is by no means someone we’d call a “stopper,” but he has a respectable 3.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across his last four turns. Finally, even though it’s not quantifiable, don’t dismiss the emotional expenditure of the Rays’ series win against the rival Yankees.

Mariners over 4.5 runs (-102 at FanDuel)
This matchup looks like a low-scoring affair on the surface, but there are a few different elements to consider under the context of an over bet. Angels left-hander Tyler Anderson has unfavorable splits at home — relatively speaking — plus he’s a low-strikeout pitcher, a significant factor in light of the Mariners’ swing-and-miss tendencies. Finally, Mariners star Julio Rodriguez is hitting .407/.448/.741 in July and historically fares well against lefties.

Da'Mon Blackshear (+124 at DraftKings)
Da'Mon "Da Monster" Blackshear is a slight underdog this Saturday, but to the casual fan it won't make much sense. Blackshear will oppose Montel Jackson, a formidable veteran coming off four straight wins and a guy whose professional record is considerably better than his opponent. So, what gives? A closer look at Blackshear's history reveals a versatile fighter who had hiccups earlier in his career and two recent losses that were questionable decisions, at best. He's the more dynamic martial artist and he's in his prime at 29. Jackson has been beating up on inferior foes as he likely nears the end of his UFC tenure. Blackshear should be the chalk.

Christian Rodriguez + Rose Namajunas ML parlay (+110 at DraftKings)
Christian Rodriguez is a cerebral martial artist who was catapulted into the UFC limelight after his defeat of phenom Raul Rosas Jr. last summer. It wasn't a fluke. Rodriguez picked Rosas Jr. apart and out-maneuvered him in the clutch, handing the young buck his first loss. "CeeRod" followed it up with 2 more wins as he continues to climb the featherweight rankings. Rose Namajunas switched to flyweight and immediately impressed in a 5-round win over Amanda Ribas in March. Tracey Cortez is a good fighter but this is her first 5-round bout. Her opponent has considerably more experience in big-fights, and we give the edge to "Thug" Rose in nearly every category.

Spain to win in extra time (+1100 at DraftKings)
The English proved they know how to weather a storm once again. After going down 0-1 early, veterans like Harry Kane and a stingy defensive effort granted the English their third come-from-behind win in Euro 2024. Meanwhile, Spain has yet to lose a single game in the tournament, outscoring their opponents 13-3. They even found two goals against the Frenchmen, a group known for their top-notch resistance. History shows us that Euro Cup Finals are always close (since 1996, 4/7 ended in a tie, and two others finished 1-0), and while we trust the English-defense to step up in regulation, Spain's dynamic offense and relentless pursuit to score will be too much if this goes into OT.