Our First Look at the Upcoming NFL Season

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: NFL preseason starts in 16 days
- AFC North: Ravens and Bengals favored
- AFC West: Can Justin Herbert throw for over 4k yards?
- AFC East: Bills should overcome Diggs loss
- News: MLB Draft grades

With Major League Baseball starting its All Star break and Copa, Euro 2024, and Wimbledon over, the sports calendar this week is pretty light. We’re using that as an opportunity to start diving into the NFL. The first preseason matchup, the Hall of Fame Game between the Bears and Texans, is on August 1st.

In today’s newsletter, we’re covering at the AFC East, AFC West and AFC North. On Wednesday we’ll look at the NFC East, NFC West and NFC North. Then on Friday we’ll take you through the AFC South and a week from today will be the NFC South. Enjoy!

Odds to win the AFC North

The AFC North is projected to be the strongest division in the NFL in 2024. All four teams finished with a winning record last season, marking the first time in the Super Bowl era an entire division finished above .500. The AFC North is a +225 favorite to finish with the most combined wins of any division. The Ravens, who won the division at 13-4 last year and added Derrick Henry in the offseason, are slight favorites to repeat at +140. The Bengals are right behind them at +145, while the Browns (+600) and Steelers (+800) are bigger underdogs to take the division crown. 

AFC North win totals

Unsurprisingly, the Ravens and Bengals have the highest win totals in the AFC North at 10.5. Baltimore won 13 games last year, and even though it upgraded the backfield with Henry, it also lost some key pieces in LB Patrick Queen, OLB Jadeveon Clowney, S Geno Stone, OG John Simpson and OG Kevin Zeitler. The Bengals should be able to improve upon their 9-8 record in an injury-plagued season for Joe Burrow. Cleveland’s win total is only 8.5 despite the Browns going 11-6 last season with inconsistent quarterback play. If Deshaun Watson has a bounce-back year, this team could make some noise in the AFC. As for the Steelers, they gave up on Kenny Pickett and brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Pittsburgh hasn’t had a losing record since 2003, so take the under at your own risk. 

Top MVP contenders

The AFC North is the only division in football with two MVP candidates in the top eight names on the odds board. Jackson, the reigning MVP and two-time award winner, is the fifth-favorite at +1400, but he doesn’t have the lowest price in the division. Instead, Burrow is the most likely MVP winner from the AFC North at +1000. The LSU product missed the last seven games of the season in 2023 after undergoing surgery on his right wrist, but he could put up monster numbers in 2024 with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the outside. The Browns and Steelers don’t have any realistic MVP contenders unless Watson or Wilson possess a time machine.

One AFC North possibility to consider

If you’re looking for a fun, season-long sweat in the AFC North, this exact result could be a solid option. The Browns seem to be the most underrated team in the division, at least in terms of the betting odds. Cleveland brings back nearly its entire defensive unit that ranked first in the NFL in yards allowed per game, first in third-down conversion percentage, second in DVOA and sixth in sacks. With Nick Chubb set to return at some point this year, the Browns can get back to the old-school, ground-and-pound strategy this roster was built to execute. Cleveland can ride its elite defense and running game to a division title, with Baltimore coming in right behind in second place. 

Justin Herbert over 4,000 passing yards (+220 at FanDuel)
The era of Jim Harbaugh has begun for the L.A. Chargers, a franchise that's been suffering through cyclically disappointing seasons for the last three decades. Beefing up their offensive-line is a huge part of his philosophy, evidenced in their 1st round draft pick of Joe Alt, the 6'8" monster from Notre Dame who immediately upgrades Herbert's protection. The Chargers lack the same depth at wide-receiver that they had in previous years, but Herbert has surpassed 4,000 yards in 3 out of 4 seasons (a fractured finger stunted his season in Week 14 last year). We've seen Harbaugh bring the best out of his QBs, so this qualifies as a bargain wager for the price.

Denver to make the playoffs (+790 at FanDuel)
Denver drafting Oregon QB Bo Nix was all about Sean Payton. The esteemed Super Bowl winning coach went through some growing pains in 2023, but in truth they exceeded expectations. Finishing 8-9 in the same division as the reigning Super Bowl champions is no easy feat, and many forget that the Broncos won 7 of their last 11 games. Nix has many Drew Brees-like qualities, that much is obvious. If Payton can work his magic with the rookie, Denver has the roster to make a splash in 2024. Pro Football Focus ranked their offensive line 7th at the end of last season, they have formidable talent on offense, and their defense is young and hungry. Watch out for the 2024 Broncos!

Raiders under 6.5 wins (+110 at DraftKings)
The Raiders just didn't do enough to make us think they'll get better in 2024. In fact, we think they'll regress. Sticking with QB Aidan O'Connell and signing journeyman Gardner Minshew isn't the best indication that the Raiders' front office knows what they're doing. They drafted Brock Bowers, the hyper-talented tight end from Georgia, and provided some depth to their O-line, but they lost Josh Jacobs and an above-average defensive line (Christian Wilkins was a good add) can't win games alone. Their schedule is also terribly difficult. Antonio Pierce is a motivational coach and his defense will help beat the spread and probably earn a few wins, but Vegas has a long way to go.

Chiefs to win the Super Bowl (wait on this one — currently +600 at FanDuel)
Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Taylor Swift (wait what) are going for their third straight Super Bowl win, and they probably should be the favorites. No matter the talent of the opposition, the Chiefs proved they can overcome any challenge to make it to the top, but it would be unwise to bet on their Super Bowl odds right now. Kansas City starts with two very tough matchups against the Ravens and Bengals, arguably two of the biggest threats to dethrone the reigning champs, and in their first six games they'll travel to Atlanta, LA (against the Chargers), and San Francisco. Kansas City could start slow with an even bigger bullseye on their backs; fire away once we get better odds.

Bonus: Aidan O'Connell to be Raiders starting QB in Week 1 (+114 at FanDuel)
It's clear the Raiders wanted a bigger upgrade at QB. They tried to get Russel Wilson, but he chose the Steelers and they couldn't trade up to acquire a highly touted thrower in the NFL draft. Their response? They signed journeyman Gardner Minshew to a 2-year, $25 million contract. Minshew had good moments with every team he's played for, but no front office would consider the 28 year old a true "franchise QB." Star WR Devante Adams recently told the media that he thinks O'Connell will get the nod Week 1, noting his familiarity with the team and positive performances last season. We think O’Connell starts until Minshew is called upon when the Raiders inevitably struggle early in the season.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills finished the 2023 season on a 5-0 run and limited opponents to 18.3 points per game coming out of their Week 13 bye. Meanwhile, star wide receiver Stefon Diggs saw his role crater over that stretch. Diggs’ production from Weeks 13-17 yielded a 17-game pace of 82 receptions and 728 yards. Diggs’ 73 yards on 10 postseason receptions further reinforced the reality that his time as the offense’s focal point was over. While his postseason trade created headlines, it’s fair to consider the transaction will be a case of addition by subtraction for the Bills.

Don’t be surprised if the Bills’ pass-catching group is greater than the sum of its individual parts. It’s natural to anticipate offensive struggles when a team loses a key name like Diggs. And perhaps it’s tempting to look at the Miami Dolphins — or even the Jets — as the favorite to win the AFC East. But there’s a lot to like about Josh Allen and Co. this season from a long-term and game-to-game standpoint.

Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa finally showed what he’s capable of producing across a full season in head coach Mike McDaniels’ scheme. He accumulated over 4,600 yards in 2023 after pacing toward that mark in 2022, when injuries limited him to 13 games. FanDuel is offering -115 odds to wager on Tagovailoa to cross the 4,000-yard marker in 2024.

Tagovailoa is the point guard of the offense, and wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the long-range wings. But running back De’Von Achane packs considerable juice himself. Achane isn’t going to command 20-plus touches on a weekly basis, but he doesn’t need heavy volume in order to rack up big plays or hit paydirt. Keep Achane’s combined yardage props and anytime touchdown odds in mind throughout the season and pounce when you find favorable numbers.

New England Patriots

We’re not going to sell the Patriots as a wildcard challenger or even a mediocre team. But it’s not a bad idea to ask yourself “what if?” heading into Year 1 of the post-Bill Belichick Era. For example, What if the team and organization responds positively to fresh voices? What if the Patriots can finally get meaningful production from its wide receiver core? What if the defense is stingy under head coach Jerod Mayo?

It’s not easy to measure the qualitative impact of a coaching change, but the intangible elements of such significant staff and front office turnover shouldn’t be ignored. Keep this in consideration, especially if public perception and recency bias drive value into the Patriots’ early season betting lines.

New York Jets

Every preseason projection is wrought with “ifs,” and if the Jets’ remade offensive line allows Aaron Rodgers to remain upright for 17 games, premium playmakers such as Garrett Wilson (+2200 to lead the NFL in receiving, FanDuel) and Breece Hall (+1000 to accumulate the most scrimmage yards, DraftKings) will be positioned to excel in Year 3. Wilson and Hall were bright spots in the darkness that was the Jets’ quarterback situation. Wilson played in all 17 games for the second consecutive season, while Hall demonstrated that he’s not only fully recovered from his 2022 ACL tear, but that he’s primed to handle a heavy workload.

Those interested in more immediate opportunities should keep an eye on the points the Jets are getting ahead of their Week 1 visit to San Francisco. In theory, the Jets — specifically their bolstered offensive line — will be the healthiest they’ll be all season.