How the NFC East, West and North Stack Up this Season

In today’s newsletter…

With MLB on a break until Friday, we’ve got more NFL for you. In today’s newsletter, we’re covering at the NFC East, NFC West and NFC North. On Friday we’ll take you through the AFC South and then on Monday we’ll have the NFC South.

Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys will go as quarterback Dak Prescott goes, and by extension, CeeDee Lamb. Another 30% share of the passing pie — Lamb received 181 targets on 605 pass attempts (29.9%) in 2023 — is very much in the cards this season. We’re looking at Lamb’s +1000 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to win Offensive Player of the Year. It’s a simple angle to take on a team with no shortage of storylines, but it’s difficult to move away from the Cowboys’ two offensive supernovas.

While Dallas is certainly not devoid of offensive weapons, it’s difficult to find the pieces that will justify Lamb not seeing another 180-plus targets. Second-year tight end Jake Ferguson was No. 2 in targets with 102, but Tony Pollard and his 307 touches departed, and Jerry Jones didn’t exactly invest in replacing him. The Cowboys will presumably lean on a backfield committee tasked with complementing Prescott and Lamb, leading to a degree of passing volume necessary for him to emerge as a finalist for one of the game’s top individual honors. 

New York Giants
Expectations are modest for Big Blue, but rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers is the Giants’ first dynamic pass catcher since 2018. There’s a dearth of first-division offensive talent behind Nabers, especially with the departure of Saquon Barkley, so his volume will be excessive — it simply has to be — to give quarterback Daniel Jones and the Giants any shot of performing competently on offense.

Nabers joins a receiving corps that was led by Darius Slayton in targets (79) and yards (770) in 2023, marks that he will obliterate given the benefit of health. Nabers is +2000 at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. The field is tough with Caleb Williams the early favorite to finish as 2024’s top rookie and two other top-10 wide receivers entering the season with promise. But Nabers will receive the necessary targets to put himself in the thick of the race. Be ready to pounce on Nabers’ early season prop lines. It’s only a matter of time — 1-2 weeks tops — before he’s deployed as the unquestioned No. 1 option in this offense. If sportsbooks are slow to catch up, bettors may find value in Nabers’ odds. 

Philadelphia Eagles
Picking the Eagles to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl isn’t creative, but there’s plenty of reason to remain bullish on those prospects, especially +700 at DraftKings. Many core pieces of the 2022 Eagles remain, and the staff shakeup that places Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio atop the offense and defense, respectively, looks promising on paper. Eagles backers will want to be sure to prioritize DraftKings for the most valuable division-winner odds (+100), an accomplishment that remains attainable for them on paper.

From an individual player standpoint, it’s difficult not to dream on what Saquon Barkley will do in the best offensive environment he’s experienced as a pro. There may be too much talent amongst his peers to like the chances of him coming away with individual hardware. But it’s worth taking a long look at his full-season props, and keeping a close eye on his weekly prices, particularly rushing-plus-receiving odds.

Washington Commanders
The Commanders continue to undergo the early stages of an organizational reset, from ownership down to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. There’s a lot the majority of bettors won’t know about the Commanders until they get their eyes on them for a few games. Kliff Kingsbury is running the Commanders’ offense, and while his tenure as the Arizona Cardinals’ head coach left plenty to be desired, he demonstrated a respectable degree of competence directing offenses. And the roster is peppered with quality veteran talent, even if the likes of Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz are on the tail end of their primes.

This is another instance of digging into qualitative analysis more than numerical projections. If the stain of the Commanders’ previous regime injects value into their betting odds, astute bettors may be able to find pockets of profit early in the season. The Commanders are undergoing significant changes, such as facility upgrades that are part of developing a winning culture — something principal owner Josh Harris knows how to do. Take some time to browse the Commanders odds for lines and prices that appeal to your betting goals.

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are not in an enviable position this year, even if they still have virtually all the pieces that took them to the Super Bowl just five months ago. Brock Purdy enters year three, which often presents a significant leap for high-level QBs with his potential, but we know he'll be without Brandon Aiyuk, who was a central piece to their success in recent seasons. The 49ers also have a brutal schedule. Not only is it filled with top-tier opponents outside their division (Jets, Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Bills, Dolphins, Lions), but they'll have zig-zagging travel that includes 5 road games in 9 weeks to end the season.

There's also pressure on last year's Super Bowl loser to avenge their performance and run it back with the same form and energy. We're inclined to look under their win total (under 11.5, -125 at BetMGM), but if Brock Purdy puts together another big season with this slate of games, it's worth a shot at betting on his MVP odds (currently +1600 at Caesars).

Seattle Seahawks
The biggest change for the Seattle Seahawks is their coaching staff, specifically the retiring of Super Bowl winning coach Pete Carroll. Long considered one of the game's best leaders, Carroll steps aside after a decade-plus at the helm for Seattle, bringing the franchise to new heights during his tenure. Mike Macdonald seems like a fine replacement, but a new staff and new energy might take some time for a Seahawks roster that already seems to be in flux.

They have formidable young defensive talent and their offense still has plenty of studly athletes like receivers D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and running back Kenneth Walker III. Geno Smith, on the other hand, is coming off a good-not-great season, and the Seahawks' offensive line still has plenty to prove. We can only look at their win total going under 7.5 (+135 at Caesars), but the Seahawks are better to consider as an ATS fade throughout the season. In tough spots, a new coaching staff and shallow areas of their roster won't bring out the best in this program.

Los Angeles Rams
Everyone and their brother was counting out Matthew Stafford and the L.A. Rams last season. That was a rather foolish projection. Stafford looked like the best QB by a mile in the NFC last season (sorry Brock, Jalen, and Dak), and his new weapon, now second-year WR Puka Nacua, instantly ascended into one of the best catchers in the game. The Rams will be without Hall of Famer Aaron Donald this season, a truly irreplaceable game-wrecker, but the good news is LAR's defense is young and hungry and poised to take a big leap this season.

They also focused their offseason efforts on bringing in new defensive talent, like 19th overall draft pick Jared Verse (DE, Florida State) and second round grab Bradon Fiske (DE, Florida State). And lest we forget, the Rams nearly beat Detroit in the Wildcard round last season (24-23 was the final), the same team that ended up in the NFC title game and probably should have made it to the big dance. Sean McVay is still one of the brightest minds in the NFL, and as long as Stafford is healthy, we lean to the over in their win total (8.5, +102 at Caesars). Why not take a look at Stafford for MVP, too (+3000 at most books)?

Arizona Cardinals
It's the second year of Jonathon Gannon's tenure as head of the Arizona Cardinals, and we see more buy signs than reasons to fade his program. Firstly, most NFL experts consider the Cardinals' offseason and draft acquisitions as one of the best in the league, and no transaction was more celebrated than drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. fourth overall. The dynamic WR gives Kyler Murray a target that could be lethal against opposing defenses this season, especially with Kyler's elusive ability and rocket arm. The tandem could prove unstoppable once they gain some chemistry — and they’re pairing that with a consistent, tough-guy RB in James Conner and nice surrounding talent like WR Zay Jones and TE Trey McBride.

They've also stacked their defense with more depth (DT Justin Jones, DT Bilal Nichols, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting). We're going to steer clear of their win total (7.5 seems right), but the Cardinals could make a lovely ATS companion this season, starting Week 1 (+7 at Buffalo) since we anticipate the market disrespecting Gannon's team early and often.

Odds to win the NFC North

The NFC North is going to be a fun division to follow this season. The Lions, after winning the division last year for the first time since 1993, are favored to repeat at +135 odds. The Packers, who also snuck into the playoffs and demolished the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round, are right behind Detroit at +195. Both teams have Super Bowl aspirations in 2024-25. The Bears had a busy offseason that involved replacing Justin Fields with Caleb Williams, hiring new offensive and defensive coordinators, and bringing in Keenan Allen. Chicago is third on the NFC North odds board at +330, while the Kirk Cousins-less Vikings are a distant fourth at +950. 

NFC North win totals

The Lions have the highest win total in the NFC North and one of the highest in the NFL for 2024-25. Detroit brings back nearly its entire offense that ranked third in yards per game and fifth in points per game last season. The Packers are expected to improve upon their 9-8 record last year, assuming Jordan Love takes another step toward the top tier of quarterbacks in the league. The Bears have the most fascinating win total in the division. Chicago is a much-improved team with a bright future ahead, but can a rookie QB lead this group to a winning record in a tough division? As for the Vikings, they still have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, but it’s tough to gauge their upside with Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy leading their QB room. 

Top MVP contenders

Love had a tough start in his first season as Green Bay’s full-time starter, but he flipped a switch late to lead the Packers to a 6-2 record in their last eight games. The rising superstar threw 18 touchdowns and only one interception in that stretch, and now he’s a top contender to win MVP. Goff isn’t far behind at +2500, but the Lions are so balanced offensively it’s hard to imagine the QB putting up gaudy enough passing stats to win the award. The only rookie ever to win NFL MVP was Jim Brown in 1957, so cross Williams off the list. You might as well do the same for Jefferson, who would need to break every receiving record in the books and somehow carry the Vikings to a division title. 

One NFC North option to look at

The Lions are built to dominate in the regular season. Goff has full control of this offense under the direction of OC Ben Johnson, and Detroit’s imposing offensive line keeps him upright while paving the way for one of the most efficient running games in the NFL. The defense still has some work to do, but Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeil, Brian Branch and Terrion Arnold are only going to improve throughout the season. This unit has a ton of young talent ready to be unlocked. The Lions have a tougher schedule coming off a division title, but many of the playoff teams on the slate (Bills, Rams, Buccaneers, Cowboys) took a step back this offseason. Detroit has the upside to go 14-3 and snag the No. 1 seed in the NFC.