All the Hype is with the Texans in the AFC South (+105)

In today’s newsletter…

Happy College Football 25 release day to all who celebrate. EA Sports stopped making the video game in 2013 because of controversy around whether athletes should be paid to be in it. With that hurdle long gone and players being paid to appear (over 11,000 athletes accepted a minimum of $600 for their likeness to be used), the game is back. According to the Associated Press, over 2.2 million people played College Football 25 during an early-access promotion this week.

In today’s newsletter, we’re covering the AFC South and the return of Major League Baseball after the All Star Break, and Abby’s column tracks the beginning of the NBA’s offseason.

Justin Steele under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-165 at DraftKings)
This is a lot of juice to pay for a prop, but we believe it has a better chance of cashing than the odds inculcate. Justin Steele has been utterly dominant for nearly two months. The Cubs left-hander has gone under this line in eight of his last nine starts, dropping his ERA from 5.68 to 2.71 in that span. The Diamondbacks rank just 19th in MLB in OPS (.741) and 18th in wRC+ (109) against lefties over the last 30 days, and Steele has a .303 xwOBA against current Arizona hitters in his career. 

Alec Bohm over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+120 at DraftKings)
Alec Bohm is coming off a fantastic All-Star break in which he made the semifinals of the Home Run Derby and recorded a hit in the All-Star Game. He should be able to keep that momentum rolling into the second half of the season. The Phillies slugger is batting .500 with a home run in his career against Pirates starter Martin Perez, and he’s hitting .417 and slugging .750 against lefties since the start of July.

Reds team total over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-105 at DraftKings)
It’s never a bad idea to fade Nationals starter Patrick Corbin. The left-hander ranks in the first percentile in xERA (6.29), xBA (.316) and pitching run value (-20). He’s given up at least three earned runs in 13 of his 19 starts this season, and he has an abysmal track record against today’s lineup. Current Reds hitters are batting .446 with a .445 xwOBA and a .623 xSLG in 62 combined plate appearances against Corbin. 

Mets team total over 1.5 runs first 3 innings (+124 at DraftKings)
Edward Cabrera has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the last few months. The Marlins starter ranks in the first percentile in barrel rate (15.3%), the fourth percentile in hard-hit rate (47.2%) and the 11th percentile in xERA (5.11). He’s also given up a whopping 13 earned runs in his last 9.0 innings of work. The Mets should be able to jump on Cabrera early 

Brendan Rodgers over 1.5 total bases (-110 at DraftKings)
Brendan Rodgers is batting only .105 over his last 10 games, but this is a perfect matchup for him to break out of this slump. The Rockies second baseman is batting .301 against left-handed pitching this season. Giants southpaw Kyle Harrison throws his 4-seam fastball 61.1% of the time, and Rodgers is batting .382 and slugging .574 against 4-seamers. All he needs is one fastball up in the zone to cash this prop. 

Trea Turner and Austin Slater to record a hit parlay (+103 at DraftKings)
Trea Turner was unstoppable at the plate leading up to the All-Star break. The Phillies shortstop is batting .417 in the month of July, and he’s recorded multiple hits in five of his last six games. As for Austin Slater, he loves facing off against Corbin. Most players do, but Slater especially enjoys it: In 16 career at-bats against the lefty, Slater is batting .438 with a double and a home run. 

Seiya Suzuki to hit a home run (+470 at FanDuel)
Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson is a solid fade target for a home run prop because he throws his 4-seam fastball 52.1% of the time and gives up an 8.8% barrel rate. Seiya Suzuki absolutely smashes fastballs, as he leads the Cubs in slugging percentage (.554), xSLG (.618) and hard-hit rate (66.7%) against 4-seamers this season. This is a dream matchup for Suzuki. 

Oh the NBA offseason. Celtics fans are still flaunting their 18th NBA Championship just like any passionate Boston sports fan does when they win it all. Then there are all of my new Knick’s friends here in New York that I’ve been sure to check in on everyone once in a while. I think their offseason signings have slowly masked the pain of being robbed of their playoff dreams? Don’t worry, next year is the Knicks’ year (probably).

Also, do we have access yet to a 24/7 stream of Bronny James and his life since getting drafted? All jokes aside, following the completion of the 2024 NBA Draft, the offseason began with full steam ahead on June 28th. 

Click here to continue reading Abby’s column on our website

Houston Texans
Perhaps no player and no team is receiving more hype than C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. And while the contrarian handicapper in us wants to fade all the noise, it's very hard to debunk. Houston's fanbase has a young, dynamic coach that players respect, an ultra-talented starting QB in just his second year, and a boatload of new talent to elevate their prospects this season. The additions of Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry to the Texans' defensive front might be the biggest upgrade of all. Second-year DE Will Anderson Jr. is ready to breakout as an elite pass rusher and now he won't be the only focus of his opponent's blockers.

Stroud will also have veteran RB Joe Mixon by his side, and he has a glorious new weapon in WR Stefon Diggs. Creating an exceptional trio with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Stroud's weapons are as good as any in the AFC. Their odds to win the AFC South are too rich for us (+105 at DraftKings and FanDuel), especially considering the variance of a full season, but taking a shot on CJ Stroud to win NFL MVP (+1000 at FanDuel and BetMGM) or an AFC title win (+850 at FanDuel and DraftKings) is tempting. Early in the season, we'll fade the hype when they're given too much chalk against a formidable opponent, but the Texans are undoubtedly a huge threat in the conference this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a puzzle. Two years ago they won their first postseason game since 2017, and Trevor Lawrence looked poised to enter top-tier QB conversation under new leadership. Last season, they regressed. Lawrence struggled, finishing the 2023-24 campaign with a lousy 56.1 QB rating (17th overall). And after a nice midseason win against the surging Texans, Doug Pederson seemed to lose his team: They lost 5 out of their last 6.

This year the Jaguars are largely the same, although first round draft pick Brian Thomas Jr. could be a long-term answer for Lawrence, who never seemed to maintain chemistry with his wideouts last season. Much remains to be seen, although his blistering 4.33 second 40-yard dash can't hurt. Jacksonville also signed longtime 49er DE Arik Armstead to provide more depth on their defensive line, and they hope center Mitch Morse can boost a rushing attack that only produced 3.6 yards per rush (30th) in 2023. While those changes are fine, we're not sure it's enough. This team and its success runs through the arm of Trevor Lawrence, and we'll need to see a true resurgence before we trust the former Clemson QB against the likes of CJ Stroud and a burgeoning AFC. We'll lean under 8.5 wins (-110 at DraftKings). 

Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts are a very interesting team. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson played in just one full game before he incurred a season-ending shoulder injury last year, but even one game showed us how exciting the former Florida starter could be. Exhibiting poise and tremendous athletic ability, Richardson led a comeback attempt against the Jaguars in Week 1, nearly knocking off their rival. If nothing else, it was a statement of what could be in the Colts’ future. Even more impressive, first year coach Shane Steichen still found a way to lead his team to a 9-8 record with Gardner Minshew under center.

Jonathan Taylor is back, healthy and still a top-tier RB, the Colts have veteran leaders on both fronts, and their surrounding talent is young and dynamic on both sides of the ball. There's a reason the Colts aren't far behind the Jaguars in division winner odds (+330 at FanDuel), and we think they'll be very competitive in a division filled with inexperienced throwers. We're refraining from any future wagers for now, but even their Week 1 meeting hosting Houston (+2.5 at BetMGM) has us leaning in their direction. Steichen clearly knows how to run a professional operation, and they have the talent to make good things happen. In the 2024-25 season, consider Indianapolis as a close ATS ally when they're given too many points.

Tennessee Titans
Some may think the Tennessee Titans are in "rebuild mode" after firing Mike Vrabel. By the looks of their newly constructed roster, it appears they're anything but. Will Levis certainly seems intent on winning this season. The second-year QB had some big moments in 2023, willing his team to some impressive victories along the way (Week 14 at Miami stood out). Tennessee moved on from Derrick Henry, fundamentally changing the dynamic of their offense, but they also stacked their depth chart with new talent.

The once acclaimed Cowboys running back Tony Pollard joins as their new starter, and WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd were signed to compliment a still-elite but aging DeAndre Hopkins. Their defense is in flux, but they still have enough veterans to lead and young players to build around. The real question mark is new head coach Brian Callahan, a guy who's never assumed the position but comes from a winning program as the Bengals’ offensive mind for the last four seasons. A win total of 6.5 is awfully low, but it's understandable for such a fresh, new program. We'd prefer to look for specific spots for the Titans this season, especially when they're underrated against potentially overrated outfits (+4.5 at Chicago in Week 1 stands out!). 

Yankees vs. Rays under 8 runs (-105 at FanDuel)
The Yankees have their work cut out for them against right-hander Zach Eflin, who has limited them to one earned run and seven hits across 13 innings this season. And we’re betting on Yankees starter Gerrit Cole to look like himself across the second half after turning in a dominant start against the Orioles in his last turn.

Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115 at DraftKings)
Juan Soto historically enjoys hitting against Zach Eflin. He’s 14 for 31 (.452) with two homers, three doubles, and five walks, good for a 1.255 OPS. Soto finished the first half of the season on a high note, collecting two hits in four out of his final five games, and he continued that momentum into the All-Star game with another hit and walk in two at-bats.

Royals -1.5 (-102 at DraftKings)
To be fair to the White Sox in this spot, right-hander Chris Flexen has pitched respectably in recent weeks. The same can be said for Royals starter Michael Wacha, who owns a 2.53 ERA across his last four starts. The home/road splits are stark for both the White Sox (10-37, -106 RD away) and the Royals (31-18, +52 RD home), a trend we’re leaning into.

Hunter Brown over 17.5 outs (-138 at DraftKings)
Hunter Brown entered the All-Star break on a streak of 10 straight starts completing at least six innings for the Astros. He produced a 2.36 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .208 opponent’s batting average over that span, numbers that suggest he’s in the form necessary to hold down the light-hitting Mariners. Seattle averages the second fewest runs per game at home, and only managed to score one run on four hits across six frames the last time they faced the young right-hander.

Astros vs. Mariners under 7 runs (-105 at FanDuel)
We like Brown to continue pitching well in a friendly pitcher’s environment against the Mariners, whose 3.58 runs per game at home ranks next-to-last in MLB. Meanwhile, Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo has the numbers to support the under: a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .229 opponents batting average at home. The May 28th matchup featuring these same starters finished in a Mariners 4-2 victory.

Jack Flaherty over 17.5 outs recorded (-140 at FanDuel)
Jack Flaherty has pitched well this season, especially since the end of April. He only has one poor start across his last 14 turns in the rotation for the Tigers. He struggled with length in June, failing to complete six frames in four tries, but he finished the first half tossing six sterling innings against the Guardians (6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER). He’s poised to face the last-place Blue Jays, who are staring at the prospect of a firesale.

Athletics -0.5 first 5 innings (+130 at DraftKings)
The Athletics open the second half hosting the Angels, one of the few teams that is nearly as bad as they are. They’re 3-3 against one another this season, with the home team winning each of the six contests. And when it comes to home/road splits, the surface numbers — record and run differential in particular — support the Athletics in Oakland. Lastly, Oakland lefty JP Sears may not have good full-season numbers, but he’s been sharp of late with a 2.16 ERA and 0.90 WHIP across his last three starts.