Cousins' Arrival in Atlanta Gives Falcons Edge in NFC South

In today’s newsletter…

If you didn’t watch yesterday’s Hungarian Grand Prix, you missed more Formula 1 drama than there is in most Drive to Survive episodes. McLaren was dominant, and it was clear early on that Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri would finish 1-2 for the team from Woking. But new to dealing with the pressure of leading races, McLaren bungled its pit stop strategy. The mistake didn’t cost them the race, but it resulted in Norris getting ahead of Piastri, who had been leading from Lap 1.

Though it’s probably not obvious to those who don’t follow F1, it’s a team sport — and McLaren decided that Piastri should get the win since he was ahead before the team’s error. McLaren told Norris to let his teammate pass, but Norris replied that Piastri should catch him. With less than 10 laps to go and no end to the standoff in sight, most sportsbooks had Norris as the betting favorite, but just barely. As Norris built up a six-second lead and his team was pleading with him to let his teammate pass but getting no answer, FanDuel dropped Piastri to +115. I jumped at that movement.

On Lap 68 of 70, Norris dramatically slowed down and let the 23-year-old Piastri pass to get his first F1 win. Moral of the story: F1 is a team sport and drivers are going to listen to their bosses (well, except Max Verstappen).

In today’s newsletter, Chris has our final pre-NFL preseason coverage with a look at the NFC South. Craig is tracking low-scoring games in Cleveland and Arlington. And Jack is looking for Blake Snell to continue his great form for the Giants.

Abe

Aaron Judge over 0.5 walks (+100 at DraftKings)
It seems teams have been looking to pitch carefully to Judge in recent weeks. Judge has walked in each of his last seven games, including seven times in a three-game series against the Orioles prior to the break. There’s no reason to pitch to him (or Juan Soto for that matter) if it’s not absolutely necessary, especially considering the lack of production from the rest of the lineup.

Tigers vs. Guardians under 5.5 runs first 7 innings (-105 at DraftKings)
This play is driven by Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal and supported by Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco. Skubal has a 2.08 ERA, 0.58 WHIP, and .130 BAA over his last four starts (26 IP). The Guardians remain in a bit of a skid, going 3-7 across their last 10 and dropping two straight. Carrasco has been a surprising bright spot in recent weeks with a 3.33 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across his last five starts (27 IP). If his form holds, he and Skubal could deliver a pitcher’s duel.

Twins moneyline first 5 innings (+100 at DraftKings)
The pitching matchup featuring Ranger Suarez and Bailey Ober appears to favor the Phillies on paper. However, it’s Ober pitching like the All-Star of late with a 0.87 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, and 2.16 ERA across his last five starts. Meanwhile, Suarez is in the thick of a rut, allowing a 1.85 WHIP and 1.7 HR/9 over his last three turns. Making matters more challenging for Suarez is the Twins’ favorable platoon splits versus lefties (.783 OPS).

White Sox vs. Rangers under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-125 at FanDuel)
We also like under 3.5 runs at +135 on DraftKings given the form of White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde and the White Sox’s continued ineptitude at the plate. They’re averaging 3.26 runs per game since July 1, and they’re 10-40 on the road. The Rangers haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either, and Fedde has a 2.79 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across his last 42 innings as he continues to build his trade value.

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (+104 at Caesars)
The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez will face off against Athletics lefthander Hogan Harris. He has yet to connect on a hit in two at-bats against Harris, but he’s hitting .353 against lefties overall with a .580 slugging percentage. Alvarez is also enjoying a stretch of dominance with a 1.191 OPS in July, including Sunday’s performance in which he went 4-for-4 and hit for the cycle.

Angels vs. Mariners under 3.5 runs first 5 innings (+110 at DraftKings)
The numbers suggest this will be a low-scoring matchup, especially in Seattle, where offense is scarce. The Mariners score the second-fewest runs at home but allow the fewest. The Angels are no offensive juggernaut themselves with 52 runs scored since July 1. With lefty Tyler Anderson on the hill for the Halos and Bryce Miller throwing for the Mariners, both lineups figure to be in for a long evening.

Same Game Parlay: Royals ML + over 8.5 runs (+217 at FanDuel)
Don’t be surprised if the Diamondbacks give the Royals a competitive contest on the road, even against All-Star lefty Cole Ragans. We’re still tracking the Royals to win at home, where they’re 34-18 with a +66 run differential. However, we like the Diamondbacks’ .765 OPS against southpaws. Plus we’re fading rookie right-hander Yilber Diaz, who has pitched well in his first two big league starts but hits the road for the first time tonight.

Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons went into 2023 with a ton of hype but ultimately underwhelmed. Last year's team, led by Arthur Smith, went into the season with an offense beloved by many fantasy and betting heads. The results were ultimately subpar, limited through four months mainly due to shaky quarterback play. Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke shared the starting role off and on, usually with Heinicke replacing Ridder for a short period of time before Smith grew tired of the former Commanders thrower, only to send Ridder back into the slaughter. Still, their defense showed real promise, limiting teams to just 321 yards per game (10th) and just 5 yards per play (7th), keeping them competitive in games where their offense stuttered.

Most of the same offensive and defensive stalwarts return this season, along with a new coaching staff and leader in Raheem Morris. They also brought in veteran QB Kirk Cousins to help stabilize the most important part of their roster, with Michael Penix Jr., the talented arm from the Washington Huskies, to provide more depth. Atlanta's defense is shallow in some areas (their defensive line stands out), but explosive guys like RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts all return to give Cousins a formidable group of attackers. At 9.5 wins, the Falcons are the chalk to win the South, but we would only like an over after Atlanta plays a few games. The back half of the Falcons' schedule is a much easier road than the start to their season (Weeks 1-5 are brutal), so it's very likely that you'll get a better number and better value by waiting. Atlanta is the most talented roster in the NFC South, but some early growing pains should be expected.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week the sports world learned that longtime game-wrecker and one of the best edge rushers in the NFL, Tampa Bay's Shaquil Barrett, decided to retire. The news was a microcosm of what we expect from the Bucs coming into this season — regression. Last season was a Cinderella-year for the Buccaneers, a franchise that few if any thought would have a shot at any type of success before the 2023 campaign began. After a surprising 3-1 start, the world made sense again when the Bucs ended up 4-7 heading into December. No one thought they would make the playoffs. But Baker Mayfield and an experienced group of veterans rose to the occasion, winning 5 of their last 6 games and earning a wildcard spot. They went on to beat the Eagles in the first round, followed by a competitive loss at Detroit the next week.

Wildly exceeding expectations in 2023, we doubt that happens again this season. Mayfield is a fighter, and 2023 was the best version we've seen from the former Heisman winner. He still has a talented cast around him (they re-signed Mike Evans, Chris Godwin remains, and Rachaad White is an underrated back), but finding the same success in 2024 doesn't feel likely, especially with a tougher schedule. Outside their division, Tampa will battle Detroit, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Kansas City, San Francisco, Dallas, and the L.A. Chargers. Their division has only improved, and even though their defense still has veteran leadership (Vita Vea, Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield Jr.), they allowed enemy passing attacks to throw for 6.9 yards per pass (25th) last season. Their roster hasn't changed enough to suggest they'll get better in that category, and Baker won't be overlooked by opposing defenses any longer. We can only look at under 7.5 wins (+125 at DraftKings). 

New Orleans Saints
Few teams are tougher to figure out than the New Orleans Saints. Entering the 2023 season, we thought Derek Carr would be a perfect fit for their offense. As a devout Christian, Carr fit the Southern culture well, and he had as much surrounding talent as he's ever had on previous teams, but it just never materialized. Carr was beaten up and inconsistent throughout the year, leading an offense that looked like it was running through molasses, trudging down the field at 5.1 yards per play (20th) and constantly stunted by a mediocre rushing attack that produced just 3.6 yards per run (31st). They'll hope for better results in 2024, but it's hard to see what's going to change. Their defensive rankings weren't bad last year (they were top-6 in opponent points per game, and third and fourth down conversion rates, for example), and their defense has plenty of talent, but many of their stars are on the back-end of long careers (Cam Jordan and Demario Davis are 35, Tyrann Mathieu is 32). They'll need younger guys like LB Willie Gay and CB Marshon Lattimore to lead the charge.

Offensively, besides first round draft pick Taliese Fuaga (a celebrated LT from Oregon State), their offense looks very similar. On the bright side, early reports from camp are soaring about third-year WR Chris Olave, who's hoping to have a breakout season, and the Saints finally replaced longtime offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, who just wasn't bringing enough change, with former San Francisco offensive assistant Klint Kubiak. At just 36 and coming from the hyper-successful 49ers, it might be the fresh new perspective the Saints need. Since we give New Orleans' schedule a "medium" difficulty rating and since their division is wide-open, we lean over 7.5 in their win-total (-120 at DraftKings and FanDuel), assuming some improvement happens, and taking the Saints to win the South (+380 at FanDuel) sits at a price that's tempting, to say the least. 

Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers didn't have much to celebrate in 2023, most are aware of that by now, but it's already looking more promising in 2024. The thing is, the bar isn't very high. The Panthers had the worst offense in the NFL last season, ranking 31st or 32nd overall in too many categories to count (points per game, yards per game, yards per pass, etc). No. 1 draft pick Bryce Young and an inexperienced offense struggled often, but we also saw glimmers of why the former Bama QB was the top-choice in his class. Despite his size (he's terribly small, let's face it). Young displayed poise under pressure and in defeat, a maturity that's all-too-rare among the current generation of young athletes. What didn't help him much was his dynamic with Frank Reich, a longtime NFL coach who's seen as a respected and tenured member of the league. It was just a strange look - Reich is older, grayed, likely stuck in his ways, and while a wide-eyed Bryce Young was clearly trying to learn, we were left asking: at what cost? The offense just didn't show much improvement all season.

After a 1-10 start, Reich was fired. This season, Carolina will be guided by 43-year old Dave Canales, former offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay and a longtime member of the Seattle Seahawks, where he helped guys like Russell Wilson and Geno Smith ascend to their best form. It remains to be seen if we'll see an uptick in performance this year, although it helps that they brought in dynamic WR Diontae Johnson and rookie WR Xavier Lagette, who showcased an impressive 4.4 second 40-yard dash. We can't express the same confidence in their defense. Letting Brian Burns go to the Giants is a major loss, and although they brought in Jadaveon Clowney (a stud athlete but cyclic underperformer) and some help for their secondary, we're not sure if this group can hold up like they did last season (although they allowed plenty of points, they kept offenses to just 4.9 yards per play, 6th overall). A win-total of 5.5 feels right, no leans here.

Braves vs. Reds under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-135 at FanDuel)
This game sets up to be a low-scoring pitchers’ duel. Hunter Greene ranks in the 95th percentile in xBA (.194) and the 85th percentile in xERA (3.09), and he’s given up only two earned runs in his last 17.2 innings of work. On the other side, Reynaldo Lopez hasn’t surrendered more than three earned runs in any of his 17 starts this season, and he’s held the opposing team to two runs or fewer in 15 of those 17. 

Ranger Suarez over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
Ranger Suarez looked like the NL Cy Young favorite early in the year, but that’s no longer the case. The Phillies lefty has given up 22 hits, 15 earned runs and seven walks over his last three starts, and two of those starts came against bottom-tier offenses in the Marlins and Athletics. The Twins have the third-highest OPS (.809), the second-highest wOBA (.352) and the second-highest wRC+ in MLB in July.

Austin Gomber over 4.5 Ks (+110 at DraftKings)
Austin Gomber isn’t an effective swing-and-miss pitcher. The Rockies left-hander ranks in the seventh percentile in whiff rate and the eighth percentile in strikeout rate this season, but if there was ever a good matchup for him to rack up Ks, it would be this one. The Red Sox have been the most strikeout-prone lineup against lefties all season. Boston has a 34.4% strikeout rate against lefties this month, and Gomber has a career 43.8% K rate against current Red Sox hitters. 

Tobias Myers over 16.5 outs recorded (-120 at DraftKings)
Tobias Myers has been a workhorse for the Brewers of late, going over this line in six of his last seven starts. He’s also coming off his best start of the season with eight shutout innings against the Pirates before the All-Star break, so he’s had 12 days to rest ahead of Monday’s start. The Cubs are batting just .165 with a .491 OPS and a 48 wRC+ since returning from the break, so this is a great time to catch this struggling lineup. 

Giants moneyline first 5 innings (+116 at FanDuel)
Blake Snell was putrid early in the season, but after two stints on the injured list and a rehab assignment in the minors, the reigning NL Cy Young winner is starting to look like his old self again. Since returning from the IL, Snell has thrown 12 shutout innings while giving up only two total hits for the Giants. He allowed just one hard-hit ball and struck out eight in his most recent start against the Blue Jays. If Cy Young Snell really is back, this is a great price on the Giants to take an early lead. 

Jake Burger + Willson Contreras to record a hit parlay (-107 at FanDuel)
Jake Burger came out of the All-Star break on a tear. The Marlins slugger is 4-10 (.400) with two home runs and a double since returning to action, and Mets starter David Peterson ranks in the sixth percentile in xBA (.283). As for Willson Contreras, he’s 6-17 (.353) against Pirates starter Mitch Keller in his career. The Cardinals catcher is also batting .325 in his last 11 games. 

Marcell Ozuna to hit a home run (+300 at FanDuel)
This isn’t a great price for a home run prop, but it’s a perfect setup for the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna. He’s is batting .381 and slugging .762 with five home runs in his last 11 games. Hunter Greene is having a great year, but he’s vulnerable to the long ball because he throws his 4-seam fastball 55.6% of the time. That’s great news for Ozuna, who’s batting .370 and slugging .640 against 4-seamers this year.