Nathaniel Wood is +230 for a TKO/KO at UFC 304

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Orioles -1.5 (+102 at DraftKings)
The Padres have won five of six on their current road trip, but taking two of three from the struggling Guardians and the Nationals isn’t like going into Camden against the Orioles. To be fair, the Padres have performed better on the road than at home, but we’re fading rookie Adam Mazur in this spot. He hasn’t pitched five innings or recorded a game score over 50 since his first start on June 4.

Red Sox moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes is 0-5 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road, and he’s not likely to have the luxury of being backed offensively. The Yankees rank a mediocre 19th in runs scored since July 1, and they’re really only getting contributions from Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. That fearsome duo is a less-than-remarkable 3 for 12 with two doubles, three walks, and four punchouts against Red Sox starter Brayan Bello.

Mariners vs. White Sox under 7 runs (+104 at FanDuel)
It doesn’t take a vivid imagination to consider the vibe around the White Sox, who are in the midst of an 11-game losing streak and counting down the days until the trade deadline. The Mariners, meanwhile, are in a rut of their own, dropping five of six since the break and only scoring 11 runs in those contests. Offense won’t be easy to come by with both Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford on the shelf.

Tigers over 3.5 runs (+114 at DraftKings)
Twins starter Pablo Lopez struggled against the Tigers in Detroit on April 12 (4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER), and he’s set to face them in the Motor City again. We’re not suggesting the results will be the same, but this version of the Tigers is in good form. They’ve won six of 10, they’re 13-7 in July, and they’ve scored the third-most runs in MLB since July 1. Meanwhile, Lopez has been inconsistent this season, to say the least.

Royals -0.5 first 5 innings (-110 at FanDuel)
Royals right-hander Brady Singer owns a 2.43 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at Kauffman Stadium. He’ll take the hill against the struggling Cubs, who have scored the fewest runs in baseball since the All-Star break. And while the Royals are stellar at home, the Cubs are eight games below .500 on the road. Both are in the midst of a two-game losing streak, but we think the Royals can snap their skid tonight.

Rangers moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
The Rangers have won five in a row and seven of 10, while the Blue Jays have lost four of 10. They’re still a game below .500, but they’re only 2.5 games out of first in the American League West. They perform better offensively versus left-handers, good news against southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. And even though they have better marks at home than on the road, we’re buying their recent 4-2 stretch over their last six away games. 

Parlay: Athletics moneyline + over 9 runs (+175 at FanDuel)
Believe it or not, the Athletics lead MLB in runs scored since July 1. Perhaps that’s not a surprise once you consider their 19 and 18-run outbursts against Baltimore and Philadelphia, respectively. The A’s and Angels combined to reach the over in each of their last four matchups and six of 10 overall. Given the Angels’ struggles at home plus Athletics starter Paul Blackburn’s struggles on the road, we could see plenty of runs scored tonight.

About 70 shows in and over halfway through the MLB season, I felt now was the perfect time to take you guys along for the ride with me on a day in the life and behind the scenes inner workings of my job.

For those of you who are new here, I host MLB Network’s Quick Pitch, a nightly highlight show that shares news and updates, and brings baseball fans up to speed on the day's action. One of the longest running shows on MLB Network, this thing is a well oiled machine. I joined the show following the likes of my idols such as Heidi Watney, Kelly Nash, Siera Santos, among many others. To say this is a rewarding job is an understatement, and I’ve been grateful to have been given the reins to add my own little personal flavor to a show that’s held to such a high standard.  

Click here to continue reading Abby’s column on our website

Shauna Bannon/Alice Ardelean to end by Decision (-170 on DraftKings)
Shaune Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean is an interesting bout, to say the least. Neither women's fighter has that much experience, and both have been the subject of controversy. Dana White has taken some heat by signing Ardelean, who's more famous for her risqué social media content, and Shauna Bannon is, to many, just a pretty face. Bannon was signed after going 5-0. Once thought of as yet another exciting prospect from Ireland, her uninspiring loss to Bruna Brasil in her UFC debut left much to be desired. This will likely be a snoozefest, and we doubt either fighter is refined enough to end it before the final bell.

Michael "Mick" Parkin wins by TKO/KO (+340 at FanDuel)
Mick Parkin is getting the royal treatment from Dana White as he returns to his homeland hoping to make a big statement. The heavyweight is now 8-0 and trains with Tom Aspinall. Since joining the UFC he's earned one submission victory and three by decision, but in the past he was knocking out one opponent after another en-route to Dana White's promotion. On Saturday he'll face Lukasz Brzeski, a polish tough-guy who typically boasts one hell of a chin, but lately has fallen out of form (losing 3 of his last 4 fights) and has been victimized by larger heavyweights before. We like Parkin to get the crowd on its feet with a highlight-KO early.

Manel Kape by TKO/KO (+480 at FanDuel)
Thirty-year-old Manel "Starboy" Kape is in his prime, known for his high-octane style and wildly entertaining KOs. The Angolan has a big task on his hands at UFC 304, but we see a huge error in the marketplace at this price. Kape is responsible for 11 TKO/KOs in his 19 wins. There's not a single illegitimate thing about any one of them. Kape packs serious power and speed in his combinations, something his opponent has yet to oppose in his young career. Muhammad Mokaev is an old 23 with an impressive 12-0 record, mainly because of his elite grappling, but Kape is a considerable uptick in class. This is well-worth a 1/2-1 unit shot.

Molly McCann by TKO/KO (+260 at FanDuel)
Molly "Meatball" McCann is back in front of her home fans and she's had plenty of success here before. McCann is a bowling ball in the octagon, completely willing to stay on her feet and engage face to face with her opponents, usually showing off a better chin and more powerful punch regardless of who's against her. This is a massive opportunity for Bruna Brasil, who has one measly UFC win against a rookie Shauna Bannon, but there's nothing to suggest she has the chops to hang with a hyped up McCann. We like a loud crowd and McCann's fearless approach to mean a bad ending for the underdog.

Nathaniel Wood by TKO/KO (+230 at FanDuel)
Daniel Pineda is a stalwart of MMA, 43 fights in and having competed in several different promotions. At 38, he's far from his prime, and not long ago his career was riddled with controversy after multiple wins were called "no contests" due to high levels of testosterone found in the Texan's blood. Nathaniel Wood is coming off an unfortunate loss where he was low-blowed twice, forcing him to fight an uphill battle in a losing effort. "The Prospect" is a highly-skilled striker and grappler, with an extremely tough chin to boot. This is a great redemption fight for the aspiring title contender, and we expect him to make a statement.

Giga Chikadza by TKO/KO (+550 at DraftKings)
Arnold Allen is getting way too much credit, all because UFC 304 is in England. The slow-moving Allen has been ascending the ranks of welterweight for nearly a decade but ultimately fell off fans' radar, a consequence of his calculated but boring approach. Lately he's increased his aggression but it's led to mixed results, namely two losses in his last two bouts to Movsar Evleov and Max Holloway. Giga Chikadza is a serious striker with lethal kicks. His style is one of relentless attacking and we simply see more routes for him to earn a win than Allen. Chikadza is more active, more explosive; sign us up!

Tom Aspinall by TKO/KO (-155 at FanDuel)
While Jon Jones awaits Stipe Miocic and it further delays the formal reign of a heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blayes have been virtually forced to face off in the interim. That's all good for Aspinall; probably not so much for Blaydes. Earlier this year, Jailton Almeida dominated Blaydes for two straight rounds, out-muscling a guy who was supposed to be the superior grappler. Not a good look for a dude who many thought was a future champion. Aspinall is as explosive and scary-quick for a heavyweight as there's ever been. A setup in England means fireworks will end this heavyweight showdown.

Phillies team total under 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-125 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia’s offense looks stale right now. The Phillies batted just .198 with a .257 on-base percentage and a 61 wRC+ in their three-game series against the Twins. As for the matchup, Guardians starter Ben Lively has given up two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 17 starts this season. 

Willson Contreras over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-130 at DraftKings)
Willson Contreras doesn’t have much experience facing MacKenzie Gore, but he’s teed off on the Nationals starter in his career. The Cardinals catcher is 4-7 (.571) in his career against Gore, with two doubles and a .857 slugging percentage. Contreras has gone hitless in his last two games, but he’s still batting .308 with a .895 OPS over his last 10. This is a great matchup for a big day at the plate. 

Brewers -0.5 first 3 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
This is a huge pitching mismatch. Marlins starter Trevor Rogers has been throwing well of late, but current Brewers hitters are batting .372 against him with a .433 xwOBA and a .639 xSLG. Milwaukee also has the second-best OPS (.906) and wRC+ (154) against lefties this month. On the other side, current Marlins hitters have a .197 xBA, a .234 xwOBA and a .296 xSLG against Brewers starter Freddy Peralta. Look for the Brew Crew to jump out to an early lead. 

Giants -1.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
Speaking of pitching mismatches, we’ve got another one in San Francisco tonight. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland ranks in the 6th percentile in xBA and the 20th percentile in xERA, and current Giants hitters are batting .324 against him with a .520 xSLG. Giants starter Kyle Harrison has given up only three earned runs in 17.0 innings of work against Colorado this season. The Rockies bullpen also has the worst ERA and WHIP in baseball this year. 

MacKenzie Gore under 15.5 outs recorded (-132 at FanDuel)
Gore was a solid starter for the Nationals early in the season, but he’s starting to run out of gas as his innings creep higher and higher. The left-hander has surrendered 12 earned runs and 12 walks over his last three starts, going under this line in all three. He’s now recorded fewer than 15.5 outs in seven of his last nine starts, which was a similar theme last season when he went under in nine of his last 12 down the stretch. 

Heliot Ramos + Rhys Hoskins to record a hit parlay (+107 at FanDuel)
Heliot Ramos is almost automatic when there’s a lefty on the mound. The Giants outfielder is batting a ridiculous .426 with a 1.356 OPS against southpaws this season, and he went 1-3 against Freeland just six days ago. Rhys Hoskins loves facing off against Rogers, as he’s 8-19 (.421) in his career against the lefty with three home runs and two doubles. 

Francisco Lindor to hit a home run (+425 at DraftKings)
Braves starter Charlie Morton has given up four home runs over his last three starts, and he now ranks in the 22nd percentile in barrel rate (9.1%). The veteran righty throws his curveball 41% of the time. That’s great news for Francisco Lindor, who’s batting .326 and slugging .609 against curveballs this year. Lindor has been on fire since the All-Star break with five homers in seven games, and he’s already hit two dingers off Morton in his career.