Potential for a Wemby Double-Double and A'ja Wilson Dominance in Olympics

In today’s newsletter…

PARIS — Nearly 70 million more Americans live in states where sports betting is legal compared to the last Summer Olympics (Tokyo in 2021). Add that to a more manageable time difference for U.S. fans, and interest in the 2024 Olympics is expected to skyrocket. I’ll be in Paris for the next week taking in the Games, and while most sports fans will learn about most of the athletes for the first time during NBC’s coverage, familiar faces are competing.

Here are some futures from FanDuel on some of the most high-profile athletes at the Paris Olympics:

Abe

Yankees vs. Phillies under 4.5 first 5 innings (-104 at FanDuel)
It’s shaping up to be a pitchers’ duel in Philadelphia. Luis Gil, after giving up 16 earned runs in a three-game stretch last month, has his mojo back with only three earned runs in his last 17.2 innings of work, and the Phillies are batting just .193 with a 67 wRC+ against righties over the last week. On the other side, current Yankees hitters have a .184 xBA and a .288 xwOBA in 120 plate appearances against Zack Wheeler. 

Yankees moneyline (+128 at FanDuel)
We’re not done with the game of the day just yet. As we just mentioned, Philadelphia’s offense is in a major slump against right-handed pitching. The Phillies have lost eight of their last 12 games dating back to before the All-Star break, and they’ve scored three or fewer runs in five of their last eight contests. Meanwhile, the Yankees lead MLB in OPS (1.035) and wRC+ (186) against righties over the last week. 

Manuel Margot over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-125 at DraftKings)
Manuel Margot is seeing the ball well at the plate right now. The Twins outfielder leads the team in hits (nine) and batting average (.360) over the last nine games, and he’s staring down a great matchup on Monday night. In 14 career plate appearances against Mets starter Jose Quintana, Margot is batting .462 with two doubles. He should be a major factor for Minnesota’s offense in this one. 

Andre Pallante over 17.5 outs recorded (-114 at FanDuel)
Andre Pallante is starting to become a workhorse for the Cardinals. The right-hander has gone over this line in three straight starts while averaging 96.3 pitches per game. That’s an encouraging sign considering he averaged only 78.5 pitches per game in his first six starts of the season. Pallante is also coming in fresh, with just one start since July 10, and the Rangers have been one of the worst offenses in MLB against righties since the All-Star break. 

Jordan Montgomery over 5.5 hits allowed (+120 at DraftKings)
Jordan Montgomery has gone under this line in three of his last four starts, but he went over in eight of his nine starts before that stretch. The left-hander ranks in the second percentile in xBA (.296) and pitching run value (-16) this season. Meanwhile, the Nationals are batting .320 with a .946 OPS against lefties over the last week. 

Royce Lewis + Ketel Marte to record a hit parlay (-109 FanDuel)
Royce Lewis is back in the lineup for the Twins, and he’ll be licking his chops with Quintana on the mound. Lewis is batting a ridiculous .429 against lefties this season, while Quintana ranks in the seventh percentile in xBA (.280). Speaking of dominating lefties, Ketel Marte is batting .448 against southpaws this month, and Nationals starter Mitchell Parker has given up 21 hits and 17 earned runs in his last 16.2 innings. 

Royce Lewis to hit a home run (+450 at DraftKings)
Double down season! Not only is Lewis batting .429 against lefties this year, but he’s also slugging .821 with three homers and two doubles in only 28 at-bats against southpaws. We don’t mean to pile on Quintana, but he’s surrendered a whopping five home runs over his last two starts. Lewis went yard against AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal a few days ago, and this is a much easier matchup. 

Women's Tennis: Elina Svitolina over Jessica Pegula (-120 at Bovada)
The line movement tells us everything. At first glance it was somewhat shocking to see Elina Svitolina as the favorite against Jessica Pegula. Pegula is the 6th-ranked women's player in the world and once a routine part of late matches at Grand Slams, but lately she's fallen out of form. She lost in the second round at Wimbledon to Xinyu Wang, the kind of foe she dominated in the past, and she's looked out of form for over a month. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Elina Svitolina is having another strong year and surged to the quarterfinals in London a few weeks ago. The line keeps moving in Svitolina's direction for a reason.

Women's Basketball: Team Japan +20.5 vs. Team USA (-110 at DraftKings)
Men's USA Basketball has been the talk of the Summer Olympics for decades at this point, boasting one dominant team after another. But it's the women's side that's been the most dominant of the two. America's women's squad hasn't lost a single Olympic contest since 1992, and they're easily the odds-on-favorite to repeat again. They'll have a major size and talent advantage in Paris and should eventually coast over Japan, but news reports indicate that Team Japan has been practicing for this one matchup for over a year. We doubt Team USA has taken it as seriously, so we expect Japan to hang around and keep it at least within 20. 

Women’s Basketball: A'ja Wilson over 20.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
It's easy to assume that Team USA will stomp over every opponent en-route to another gold medal, but the world has changed a lot since 1992. Now with more information and fame surrounding the WNBA, and the growth of women's basketball around the world, leading MVP candidate A'ja Wilson will lead a squad that has a big, bright target on their back. Since we like Team Japan and others to test America's roster, Wilson is bound to be needed early and often. Her physicality and tenacity in the front court will be damn near unstoppable for the undersized Japanese women this afternoon.

Tuesday, July 30th
Men's Basketball: Spain +4 over Greece (-108 at DraftKings)

Greece is getting the royal treatment from oddsmakers, listed as the favorite after opening with a 7-point loss to Canada. The obvious reason for this chalk is Giannis Antentokounmpo, who leads the Greeks into Paris hoping to eventually upset favorites like Canada and the USA. But Sergio Scariolo’s Spaniards are coming off their first loss after seven straight wins, falling to Australia in their opener, which they'll want to avenge Tuesday. Team Spain has beaten Greece in 11 out of their last 15 meetings, and although they might not have the best player, their roster is more battle-tested and unitive than the Greeks, who will overuse Giannis to even the playing field. The value is on the underdog.

Men's Basketball: Canada -6 over Australia (-110 at DraftKings)
Team Canada looks to be a formidable threat to Team USA, opening up with an impressive win over Greece to start their time in Paris. Dillon Brooks, RJ Barrett, and Shae Gilgeous-Alexander all scored double digits, and they led Greece from the opening tipoff to the final bucket. Team Australia will pose a different threat, a group that can score at will against most opponents, but Canada has defensive stalwarts like Brooks, Dwight Powell and Kelly Olynyk, who should have little issue slowing their momentum. Canada looks focused and they're playing with a high-chemistry; we'll look for them to perform even better in their second battle.

Men's Basketball: Victor Wembanyama to Record a Double-Double (-120 at FanDuel)
After taking the NBA by storm in his first season, French phenom Victor Wembanyama is set to lead his country in the pursuit of gold. Joined by familiar teammates and at home in Paris, he won't be limited by Gregg Popovich's minute-restriction at the Olympics, nor do we think he'll avoid the limelight on the world's biggest stage. Japan has some size with Rui Hachimura and Yuta Watanbe in their front court, but both men are still 7+ inches under Wembanyama, and Josh Hawkinson (6'10") has yet to face the Spurs' center. The advantages are too many for the French icon, which we like to result in an easy double-double.

Zach Eflin over 2.5 earned runs (+110 at DraftKings)
Eflin has faced the Blue Jays three times this season — including on July 24 — and allowed over 2.5 runs in two of them. Quantitative analysis aside, this is a situation in which we’re considering intangibles, primarily the whirlwind a player experiences when being traded and everything that comes with it. It’s reasonable to anticipate that Eflin will struggle managing some extra adrenaline and a cluttered mind.

Blue Jays +1.5 — Game 1 (-122 at DraftKings)
The Blue Jays are enjoying a three-game winning streak in which they’ve scored 20 runs, so in theory their bats are in a good rhythm, and they’re facing a pitcher in Eflin with whom they’re familiar. They’ll call on right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, who has been hot in July with a 2.01 ERA, .123 BAA, and 0.76 WHIP in July. Between the Jays’ bats against Eflin and Rodriguez’s sharp form, we like a competitive contest.

Royals -1.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
The White Sox are mired in a 14-game skid with losses racking up at home and on the road, and they’re 4-10 against the spread over that span. With the trade deadline looming, the players in the White Sox clubhouse know significant change is coming. All the cliches aside — i.e. “It’s a business” — one can imagine how difficult it is for players to focus on a baseball game when their lives are on the verge of being upended.

Paul Skenes under 18.5 outs recorded (-146 at FanDuel)
Skenes has been absolutely stellar, so this isn’t a case of fading him. We respect the form the Astros are enjoying of late plus their favorable home record. They’re top-10 in runs scored in July and an organization built on making contact. That doesn’t mean Skenes won’t get his punchouts, but it’s reasonable to anticipate him having to work a bit harder to record them, elevating his pitch count and precluding him from working deep into the start. 

Pirates vs. Astros over 7.5 runs (-108 at FanDuel)
The Astros are calling on rookie right-hander Jake Bloss as they take aim at fellow rookie right-hander Skenes. Again, Skenes has been stellar, but not invincible. We’re banking on the Astros being able to make Skenes work, perhaps getting to the bullpen to start the sixth inning. Meanwhile, the Pirates are top-10 in runs scored since July 1 and taking aim at Bloss, who has allowed nine earned runs — and five homers — in 11.2 innings. 

Red Sox under 3.5 runs first 7 innings (-154 at DraftKings)
We’re eyeing Mariners starter Logan Gilbert in this spot. He’s been great overall, but he’s pitching a little better on the road. And even considering a couple of blips in July, he’s still pitching to a 2.70 ERA, .168 BAA, and 0.79 WHIP across 26.2 frames this month. The Red Sox find success against finesse pitchers, but they only bat .213/.298/.346 against power pitchers and average over half a run fewer at home than on the road.

Guardians vs. Tigers under 3.5 runs first 5 innings (-104 at FanDuel)
Tonight’s AL Central clash features Jack Flaherty for the Tigers and Tanner Bibee for the Guardians, who are averaging 2.4 runs per game over their last 10. Plus they’ve only scratched four runs against Flaherty across 18 innings. Bibee hasn’t been as sharp as Flaherty in July, but the Tigers bats have cooled since getting hot earlier in the month, and he’s fresh off of limiting them to one run across five innings on July 24.