Both U.S. Basketball Teams Continue to be Heavy Olympics Favorites

In today’s newsletter…

PARIS — You might remember Chase Budinger from his time playing college basketball for the Arizona Wildcats. Or possibly for his NBA career with the Rockets, Wolves, Pacers and Suns. But at the Olympics, he’s proving that a world-class athlete can succeed in multiple sports. He made the Team USA beach volleyball squad for the Paris Games seven years after retiring from the NBA (he joined the pro volleyball circuit in 2018). Budinger’s switch wasn’t completely random, though, as he was a volleyball star in high school and was named national player of the year by Volleyball Magazine.

Last night, he and teammate Miles Evans, who has been competing since 2014, lost 2-0 to the No. 4-ranked team in the world — Stefan Boermans and Yorick de Groot from the Netherlands. Budinger and Evans have risen to No. 13 in the world and have competed in 18 tournaments. Only one team in the top 50 of the FIVB Men’s Beach Volleyball World Rankings has more experience together.

Beach volleyball has one of the most electric and engaged crowds at the Olympics, and the 6-foot-7 Budinger was a fan favorite at the stadium at the foot of the Eiffel Tower. Budinger and Evans play their final match of the group stage on Friday and need a win to guarantee a spot in the knockout round.

Abe

Royals -1.5 (-115 at Caesars)
The White Sox are in a dreadful slide, losing 16 in a row including 11 against the spread. We’re tracking Royals starter Brady Singer to hold down the White Sox — sans Tommy Pham and Eloy Jimenez. While Singer has been better at home than on the road, we’re confident he’ll find the comfort necessary at U.S. Cellular Field. He led the Royals to a 4-2 win over the White Sox on the South Side in April, something he has a good chance of doing again considering the Sox are averaging 2.96 runs per game in July.

Royals vs. White Sox under (-112 at DraftKings)
Nine of the last 10 contests between the Royals and White Sox went under, and we’re anticipating another one. We mentioned Royals right-hander Brady Singer, who owns a 1.88 ERA in July — a span of 28.2 innings. White Sox starter Drew Thorpe, meanwhile, enjoyed a five-start stretch in June and July in which he owned a 1.48 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and .127 BAA across 30.1 innings. The caveat is that he was blasted on both ends of that stretch, but he’s demonstrated the ability to combine with Singer to deliver an under.

Mariners over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (+110 at DraftKings)
Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello has a 6.11 ERA at home and a 5.56 ERA across his last four starts. The Mariners, meanwhile, average over a run better on the road than at home, and they’ve plated 39 runs across their last five (they went 4-1). We’re highlighting the Mariners across the first five innings because we like the chances of them getting to Bello early. For those on the fence, it’s worth looking at the Mariners over across the full game. The odds are shorter, but the Red Sox own a league-worst 8.21 ERA since the start of the second half.

Rockies vs. Angels over 8.5 runs (-122 at FanDuel)
The Rockies and Angels have been middle of the pack or better in scoring since the start of the second half, and we’re willing to bank on them continuing to plate runs — they combined for 17 runs in Game 1 of the series. Left-hander Kyle Freeland takes the hill for Colorado, and he has struggled immensely on the road (9.96 ERA across six starts). Additionally, the Angels are 30 points better in OPS against lefties, so the opportunity to inflict damage is there for the Halos. Finally, even though the Rockies are a demonstrably better offense at home (4.94 runs per game at home vs. 3.67 on the road), Angels starter Davis Daniel has allowed 11 earned runs in nine innings across his last two starts.

Men's Basketball: South Sudan +29 (-110 at DraftKings) 
The number is moving slightly in South Sudan's favor for good reason. The Sudanese have been beating the odds for a long time, from building a basketball league in a war-torn country to nearly beating Team USA in an exhibition game on July 20th (a 101-100 barnburner), and it's not like they don't have battle-tested talent. Peter Jok was a standout at Iowa, Nuni Omot played for Baylor, Wenyen Gabriel was in the NBA, and Marial Shayok played at UVA and Iowa State. The Sudanese are crafty, fearless, and they know they can hang with the favorites. Not to mention; they're both competing for the top spot in Group C. This is great value.

Men's Basketball: Carlik Jones under 16.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
Team USA was in a rough spot in their first meeting with South Sudan, unable to practice beforehand and probably not taking it very seriously, but they won't make that mistake this time. One player they'll make sure to focus on in the rematch is Carlik Jones. Jones is clearly the best player on the underdog's squad, a prolific scorer and dynamic guard who piled up 15 points, 11 assists and 11 rebounds in their first affair. Shutting down Jones from scoring won't mean South Sudan can't keep the game close, but if he starts lacking confidence and loses his rhythm, that'll severely affect his team’s chances. Count on USA's defense to suffocate their opponent's star.

Men's Basketball: Lebron James over 15.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
We're not sure why this total is so low but we're happy to take advantage. Unfortunately for Team USA, they still need to depend on 39-year old LeBron James. Even Anthony Edwards capitulated from previous statements that he was the team's #1 player. Now, he echoes LeBron's kinghood. Lebron was 9-13 for 21 points in the first game against Serbia, often the hinge they depended on when the going got tough. If we think the South Sudanese will put up a fight on Wednesday, then Team USA will need "the King" more than ever. Team USA's reliance on James says a lot about their mental shortcomings; something to watch as the Olympics goes on.

Women's Tennis: Marta Kostyk to win (+125 at DraftKings)
The lone time Donna Vekic and Marta Kostyuk met was this season in Paris, a 22-game war between two very similar competitors. Lately, Vekic has been in great form. The Croatian made it to the Finals at Bad Homburg just a month ago, and at Wimbledon she got to the semifinals before losing to Jasmine Paolini. The point is, it's very hard to fade Vekic, but then why is virtual newcomer Marta Kostyuk such a short-favorite? Bettors are putting money down on the only Ukrainian left in Olympic tennis, a move we agree with. Kostyuk is playing her heart out for her country, and since she's just as purely talented as Vekic, we like that fire to mean another win.

August 1

Women's Basketball: Belgium 1st Half +12.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
The spotlight continues to shine brightly on the U.S. Women's team, as it should, but the Belgians have a lot of pride. They are the reigning European champions, sweeping their opponents in Slovenia in the most recent tournament, but they've already been humbled in Paris. The Belgians lost handedly to Germany in their first game, 69-83. Now fearing a swift elimination, we expect the Belgians will come out aggressively. Meanwhile, the Americans' lack of time together showed in their first battle, starting slow offensively and allowing a 24-point second quarter to Japan. We like a feisty start for the pooch.

Women's Basketball: Team USA over 93.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
This is worth looking at over and over as long as we don't see a kink in the armor. After a slow start (a 22-point first quarter) in their opening game, A'ja Wilson and the Americans' offense ran a train over Japan in the final three quarters, putting up another 80 points. Virtually all of their bigs couldn't be stopped (Collier, Stewart, Wilson, and Griner combined for 64% from the field on 44 shots and 61 points), and they played at a lightning fast pace for the entire contest. Maybe they don't cover ATS this time, but we like Team USA to keep pouring it on!

MacKenzie Gore under 15.5 outs recorded (-114 at FanDuel)
MacKenzie Gore was humming along nicely through the first two months of the season, but he’s hit a wall recently. The Nationals left-hander has given up 24 earned runs and 18 walks over his last six starts, pushing his ERA from 3.26 to 4.51. He’s gone under this line in six of his last seven starts. This is also a brutal matchup against the Diamondbacks, who have the highest batting average (.341), OPS (1.042) and wRC+ (182) in MLB over the last week. 

Andrew Heaney under 16.5 outs recorded (-115 at DraftKings)
Andrew Heaney isn’t what you would call a workhorse. The Rangers lefty has gone under this number in 13 of his 20 starts this season, and he rarely throws more than 90 pitches. The Cardinals rank 10th in MLB in OPS (.816) and wRC+ (134) against southpaws since the All-Star break, and they’ve put up 26 runs over their last five games. St. Louis can jump on Heaney early and chase him from the game. 

Chris Sale over 1.5 walks allowed (-150 at DraftKings)
Chris Sale has been one of our favorite pitchers to back all season, but this is an intriguing matchup to fade him with a walks prop. The veteran left-hander is so effective because he forces hitters to chase pitches out of the zone at an elite rate (34.3%). Well, Milwaukee isn’t going to help him out in that regard. The Brewers have the second-lowest swing rate, the second-lowest chase rate and the third-lowest walk rate in baseball this year. They’re going to make Sale work hard for every out. 

Padres -1.5 (+168 at FanDuel)
Padres starter Dylan Cease is riding quite the hot streak coming into this NL West showdown. The right-hander is coming off a brilliant no-hitter in his last start against the Nationals, and he’s given up just two hits and no earned runs in his last 22.0 innings of work. Is that any good? San Diego also bolstered its bullpen by adding Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at the trade deadline, so it’s going to be a challenge for the Dodgers to put any runs on the board.

Ketel Marte + Many Machado to record a hit parlay (-112 at FanDuel)
If Ketel Marte is facing off against a left-handed pitcher, he should be on your betting card. Marte is batting .362 and slugging .697 against lefties this season, and Gore is one of the worst southpaw starters in baseball right now. As for Manny Machado, he’s batting .325 with four home runs and a double in his career against Clayton Kershaw. 

Patrick Wisdom to hit a home run (+330 at FanDuel)
The Wednesday’s game between the Cubs and Reds looks to be a gold mine for home run props, as the forecast is calling for scorching hot temperatures, high humidity and a helping wind blowing out to left field. Patrick Wisdom has a hard-hit rate of 71.4% in 11 plate appearances since the All-Star break, and he has an elite barrel rate (14.9%) in limited action this season.