Not Much Can Stop Aaron Judge Right Now and He'll Have Wind Help Tonight in SF

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: French Open update
- MLB: Chris Sale is back
- Soccer: Champions League opportunities
- News: Caitlin Clark “getting hammered”

Welcome to the middle weekend of the French Open. Not much has changed in the betting markets in the first few rounds — other than Nadal’s exit, as a lot of bettors said why not with their money and took his long odds. On the men’s side, FanDuel has Carlos Alcaraz at +240 to win, followed by Jannik Sinner at +320 and Novak Djokovic at +370. World No. 1 Iga Swiatek comes in at -180 for the women’s title, with Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka at +460.

In today’s newsletter, Jack is tracking a pitchers’ duel in Philadelphia and the resurgence of Braves veteran Chris Sale. And Sam is all over the Champions League final, where Real Madrid comes in favored.

Orioles first five innings -0.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
This is a great spot for the Orioles to jump out to an early lead. Kyle Bradish has been brilliant this season with 34 strikeouts and only five earned runs in his five starts, and the Rays rank 29th in MLB in batting average (.192) and OPS (.580) against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. Rays starter Taj Bradley is coming off his best start of the season against the Royals, but he’s prone to leaving pitching in the heart of the zone. The Orioles should pounce on those mistakes. 

Tyler Stephenson over 1.5 total bases (+150 at DraftKings)
Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson has been struggling at the dish with a .167 batting average and a .435 OPS over the last 15 days, but this is the ideal matchup to snap him out of his funk. In 10 career at-bats against Cubs starter Justin Steele, Stephenson is batting .700 with five singles, a double and a home run. Not too shabby. Stephenson has been better against left-handed pitching all year, and Steele seems to be his favorite lefty to face. 

Chris Sale under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-105 at DraftKings)
Chris Sale is back, folks. After four years riddled with injuries and inconsistency on the mound, Atlanta’s left-hander is starting to look like the guy who led the league in strikeouts twice in the 2010s. Sale ranks in the 99th percentile in pitching run value and the 100th percentile in breaking run value, and he has 51 strikeouts and only three earned runs allowed in his last 39 innings of work. The Oakland Athletics ranked 28th in MLB in batting average against lefties in the month of May, and this is not a good matchup for them to turn that around. 

Ranger Suarez under 5.5 Ks (-105 at DraftKings)
Ranger Suarez is coming off his worst start of the season in which he walked four batters and gave up four earned runs to the lowly Rockies. This is a much tougher matchup for the Phillies starter against a Cardinals lineup that has the sixth-lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks (17.3%). Suarez likes to pitch to contact and force weak ground balls and pop-ups, and he’ll be able to do just that against a team that’s been seeing lefties well of late. 

Cardinals vs. Phillies under 7 runs (-105 DraftKings)
Although Suarez may have little success in the strikeout department, he should still be able to force a ton of weak contact and keep the Cardinals off the scoreboard. The left-hander has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in eight of his 11 starts this season. On the other side, Sonny Gray has dominated the Phillies throughout his career. In 120 combined plate appearances against Gray, current Phillies hitters are batting just .170 with a .253 xwOBA and a 31.7% strikeout rate. This has all the makings of a pitchers’ duel.

Reid Detmers over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115 at DraftKings)
Reid Detmers was on fire to start the season, but he’s come back to Earth over the last month or so. The Angels left-hander has surrendered at least three earned runs in seven straight starts, pushing his ERA from 1.19 to 5.76. Now he has to face a Mariners lineup that sees him well. In 77 combined plate appearances against Detmers, current Mariners hitters are batting .290 with a .402 xwOBA and a .526 expected slugging percentage. This line is too low. 

Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+360 at FanDuel)
Aaron Judge is consistently priced below +200 to hit a home run, but now he’s +360 because Oracle Park is a difficult home-run venue and Logan Webb doesn’t give up a ton of barrels? Well, Judge proved the first point wrong by cracking two dingers against the Giants on Friday night, and he already has a homer off Webb in only three career at-bats against him. Oh, and the wind will be blowing straight out to center field with 30-mile-per-hour gusts.

Real Madrid to win (-160 at Borgata)
We’ve got a huge Champions League final ahead of us this afternoon, so we’re analyzing seven opportunities for soccer’s showpiece event. Firstly we tackle the most important question: Who is likely to win? We’re not getting the biggest odds here but -160 feels great for a Real Madrid win. This is a Real Madrid team who won La Liga with ease, finishing 10 points clear of second, against a Dortmund team who finished fifth in Bundesliga. Real are stronger in every area of the field and the 14-time winners’ experience in this competition should get them over the line.

Real Madrid -1 (+175 at FanDuel)
We’re doubling down on the Real Madrid win by looking at Los Blancos -1 goal on the spread. This Dortmund team isn’t a bad one by any means, but they aren’t at the level of Real Madrid. They have no world class players and simply don’t match up well. Dortmund have reached this point in the competition winning just seven of their 12 games played, and their domestic season has underlined the fact they are good but not great. Real have shown an ability to dominate teams throughout the season, with the exception of the games against Man City, but even then they found a way to qualify. They should win today by more than a goal.

Vinicius Junior to score 2+ goals (+700 at FanDuel)
Jude Bellingham might have finished as Real’s top goalscorer this season but it’s his teammate Vinicius Junior that is the form player. He’s scored 17 goals since the turn of the year and is a great shout at +145 (FanDuel) to score again here. He’s been terrorizing teams with his pace and directness, as well as his improved finishing. However, as well as the anytime goal there’s also an argument to look at him at +700 to score a brace. In his past 14 games in all competitions he’s scored 11 goals, but what is astounding is that he scored a single goal just three times in that spell — with the other eight goals spread evenly between four games. When he’s hot, he’s really hot.

Jude Bellingham to be Man of the Match (+400 at Bet365)
This pick is almost in direct conflict to a Vinicius Junior double, but at +400 we’re looking at Jude Bellingham to be man of the match. Sure, if Vini scores a brace then it’s likely to be him, also available at +400. However, if he fails to score multiple goals then Bellingham has to be the favorite for Man of the Match. The Englishman has been incredible since arriving this summer and will relish a chance to face his old club Dortmund. That’s an incredible narrative going into this game, and although it’s bettered by Toni Kroos playing his last ever club game, it’s Bellingham who offers the higher chances for the goals and assists that can lock in this award. Bellingham has nine Man of the Match awards in 38 La Liga and Champions League games this year and he knows Wembley Stadium better than anyone, having played there many times for England.

Ian Maatsen to get booked (+310 at FanDuel)
When it comes to finding value on cards in the Champions League final, it pays to look at fullbacks. We’ve seen Real Madrid’s Dani Carvajal (+300 at Bet365) pick up many bookings in big games across his career, while Dortmund’s Julian Ryerson (+450 at Bet365) is matched up against Vinicius Junior. However, we’re zeroing in on Ian Maatsen at +310. The leftback arrived in Germany on loan from Chelsea in January and now finds himself in a Champions League final. One thing that has been a theme during his spell at Dortmund has been cards, with five yellows in 16 Bundesliga games and three in just six Champions League games. That’s right, he’s gotten booked in 50% of his Champions League appearances.

Under 0.5 Dortmund goals (+162 at FanDuel)
Everyone is excited about the Champions League final and licking their lips ahead as they hope for an action-packed game. However, we need to be realistic about what this game is, and these finals are often cagey and less goal-filled than we expect. The losing team has failed to score in the last five Champions League finals. Given the gulf in class between Real and Dortmund, there’s a very good chance that happens again. Dortmund scored just 68 goals this season — that’s 19 less than the winners Bayer Leverkusen and 26 less than Bayern Munich, who finished third. Their top goalscorer, Niclas Fullkrug, has just 15 goals this campaign and they now face a Real team who gave up just 26 goals in 38 La Liga games. Real have a very strong defense and Dortmund really can’t be guaranteed to get past them.

Toni Kroos Over 80.5 player passes (-120 at Bet365)
Toni Kroos is set to start for Real in what will be his final game for the club, and they’ll need his experience out on the field. In his nine Champions League starts this season, he’s hit the over on five occasions. But when you consider that Man City dominated both of their games against Real and had the bulk of possession, it makes this number far more realistic — especially given that he had a total of 183 passes across both legs against Bayern Munich in the semifinals.