Brayan Bello Isn't a Strikeout Machine But Sportsbooks are Still Underestimating His Ability to Get Ks

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Half of Stanley Cup Final set
- MLB: Baltimore’s sweep chances
- News: Djokovic still alive at French

The Panthers are going back to the Stanley Cup Final for the second year in a row after beating the Rangers 2-1 last night for a 4-2 series win. Florida didn’t touch the Prince of Wales Trophy this time around, though.

The Oilers have a chance to close out their series against the Stars at home tonight and are the moneyline favorites at -140. After falling behind 1-2 in the series, the Oilers have won two straight by multiple goals. It’s been 31 years since a Canadian team won the Stanley Cup. FanDuel has Edmonton as underdogs in a potential Game 1 in south Florida.

In today’s newsletter, Malcolm is tracking strikeout opportunities for pitchers Ben Brown and Brayan Bello. He also covers Yankees starter Nestor Cortes’s road struggles.

Baltimore Orioles moneyline (-142 at DraftKings) 
Baltimore is going for a sweep against the Rays, and starter Cole Irvin, maintaining solid form with five scoreless innings against the Red Sox in his last start, should help the cause. The Rays have one of the weakest offenses in the league and haven’t helped today’s starter starter Zack Littel much recently. He’s lost his last two starts despite giving up five runs in 12.2 innings. The Rays scored a total of two runs across those two starts.

Irvin over 17.5 outs recorded (-110 at DraftKings) 
Irvin has a season ERA of 2.84, a batting average against of .238, and has given up just two runs over his last three starts (17 innings). While he has alternated between starts and relief appearances in May, he hasn’t pitched since Monday so he should be fresh. Facing a Rays team with a low team batting average and slugging percentage, Irvin is well-positioned to deliver another quality start and log significant innings.

Toronto Blue Jays moneyline (-162 at FanDuel) 
The Pirates face a challenging game, potentially opting for a bullpen day due to a lack of rested starters, which bodes well for the Blue Jays. Pittsburgh’s starter Quinn Priester is 0-4 with a 4.33 ERA and averages just over five innings per start. The Pirates’ bullpen has been underperforming with a high ERA, especially in recent games. This setup provides a favorable scenario for the Blue Jays’ lineup to exploit the Pirates’ pitching weaknesses.

Nestor Cortes Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-110 at DraftKings) 
Nestor Cortes has struggled significantly on the road this season, where he has a 6.16 ERA, compared to his 1.12 ERA at Yankee Stadium. He faces a San Francisco team that has performed well against left-handed pitchers, reflected in their .249 batting average and .316 OBP. Additionally, Cortes has consistently allowed at least two runs in every road start this year. If there are signs of trouble in the middle innings, the Yankees won’t hesitate to use their fresh bullpen.  

Ben Brown over 6.5 strikeouts (+106 at FanDuel)
Ben Brown takes the mound for the Cubs with a strong start to the season, including a standout performance of 10 strikeouts over seven innings in his last outing. With an average of nearly seven strikeouts per start and facing a struggling Cincinnati lineup, Brown’s current form indicates he could exceed this strikeout threshold today.

Twins vs. Astros under 8 runs (+100 at FanDuel)
Houston starter Hunter Brown is 1-5, but he has a series of bad-luck losses. Brown has given up either 1 or 2 runs in each of his past four losses, and gave up five runs in his lone win. If Simeon Woods Richardson can maintain control and deliver a solid performance for the Twins, this game could see fewer runs than expected.

Brayan Bello over 4.5 strikeouts (-152 at FanDuel)
Brayan Bello has consistently surpassed the strikeout line in his starts this year for the Red Sox, achieving more than 4.5 strikeouts in five of his nine outings. His recent form shows an uptick in strikeout rate, recording 6 and 7 strikeouts in his last two starts, respectively. Facing a Detroit Tigers team with a high strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, Bello finds himself in an optimal situation to continue his strikeout success if he pitches into the sixth inning as expected.