Don't Forget About the Orioles, Who Are 14-5 Following Losses and a Strong Road Team

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Stanley Cup Final set
- MLB: Good matchup for Zack Wheeler
- News: Justin Jefferson gets megadeal

The Stanley Cup Final is set, as the Florida Panthers are looking for their first championship while the Edmonton Oilers are trying bring the Cup to Canada for the first time since 1993. The Panthers come in as the favorite and start at home on Saturday. FanDuel has a 4-3 Panthers’ series win at +410, with a 4-2 win for the Oilers at +460. A few other early lines:

In today’s newsletter, Craig is tracking the Orioles success after a loss, a somewhat positive possibility for the Mets, and a potential pitchers’ duel between Tarik Skubal and Nathan Eovaldi.

Angels +0.5 first 5 innings (-125 at DraftKings)
The Angels are dreadful at home (7-21) while the Padres’ +46 run differential on the road is third best in MLB. A number of the stats and metrics favor the Padres, but they struggle against lefties in general (7th worst batting average, 6th worst OPS); and the heart of their order has struggled against Angels starter Tyler Anderson in particular. We’re looking for Anderson to keep the Halos close during the early portion of tonight’s series opener.

Orioles moneyline (-116 at FanDuel)
The Orioles are overshadowed by the Yankees in the division, but they’re one of only six teams in MLB with a .600-plus winning percentage. They enter play with stronger marks on the road than the Blue Jays have at home, and they’re 14-5 following losses. And while it’s only June 3, it’s reasonable to expect the Orioles to enter each series with the urgency of a World Series contender trying to remain within reach of the AL East crown.

Orioles +0.5 first 5 innings (-145 at DraftKings)
The Orioles don’t need to race out of the gates in order to win tonight’s contest, but we like them as early underdogs nonetheless. Statistically speaking, neither Baltimore’s Grayson Rodriguez or Toronto’s Kevin Gausman has been sharp across the early portions of their starts, so this is a spot in which the O’s can enjoy early offensive success.

Mets over 3.5 runs (-125 at DraftKings)
The Mets are merely bad on the road compared to atrocious at Citi Field. Their 5.2 runs per game as visitors ranks second in MLB, and they’ve averaged 5.5 runs overall in four games since Francisco Lindor called a players-only meeting. The Mets are middle of the pack against lefties, but their current hitters own a .300 average against Nats southpaw MacKenzie Gore — and they’ve gone over 3.5 runs in four of their last five matchups against Washington.

Phillies -1.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
Zack Wheeler has been sharp in seven of his last eight turns, and the Phillies covered the spread in five of those contests. They’re 34-26 ATS overall, including 11-7 following a loss and 17-12 as home favorites. Keeping the ball in the yard will be key for Wheeler, and that’s an area in which he’s stingy (0.61 HR/9). Brewers right-hander Bryse Wilson, meanwhile, struggles in that department, and the weather conditions — mid 80s with low humidity — present a favorable environment for hitting.

Tigers vs. Rangers under 16.5 hits (-130 at DraftKings)
Neither the Tigers nor Rangers are playing particularly well, but both will send a quality starter to the hill — Tarik Skubal and Nathan Eovaldi, respectively. Skubal, in particular, has been stingy in the hits allowed department, surrendering 44 across 67 innings. Meanwhile, Eovaldi is limiting opponents to a .187 batting average at home, and he should be available to pitch deeper into tonight’s contest after completing three frames on May 28 in his return from the IL.