Underrated Trevor Williams Has a Good Matchup Tonight Against the Mets

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Djokovic out at French Open
- MLB: Great pitching matchup in Cleveland
- News: MLB player banned for betting

The news of the morning was Novak Djokovic withdrawing from the French Open because of a knee injury he sustained during his marathon five-set win on Monday. The 24-time Grand Slam champion was set to face Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals tomorrow. Nobody other than Djokovic or Rafael Nadal has won the French Open since 2015, so we will have a new champion this year.

With the No. 1 seed out, it doesn’t necessarily mean the tournament is wide open, but does change the odds. Carlos Alcaraz is the betting favorite at +155, according to FanDuel, with Jannik Sinner at +220 and Ruud — with a free pass to the semifinals — at +380. Alcaraz faces Stefanos Tsitsipas later today, with Alexander Zverev going up against Alex de Minaur tomorrow for the last spot in the final four (Sinner beat Grigor Dimitrov earlier today).

In today’s newsletter, Jack is tracking Trevor Williams to have another solid start for the Nationals, another short outing for the Rangers’ Dane Dunning, and has an idea of how to take advantage of strong wind in Arlington.

Royals vs. Guardians first five innings under 4.5 runs (-128 at FanDuel)
Buckle up for a pitchers’ duel in Cleveland. Royals starter Seth Lugo is having the best season of his career with a 1.72 ERA and a .211 batting average allowed. The right-hander has given up more than two earned runs just once in 12 starts. On the other side, Guardians starter Triston McKenzie loves going up against the Royals. In 50 combined plate appearances against McKenzie, current Royals hitters are batting just .128 with a .232 xwOBA and a .289 expected slugging percentage. 

Trevor Williams to record a win (+225 at DraftKings)
Trevor Williams isn’t getting enough love for how good he’s been to start the season. The Nationals right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA through 11 starts, and opposing hitters are batting just .221 against him. Incredibly, Williams has given up one earned run or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. The Mets rank 26th in MLB in batting average (.214) and 20th in OPS (.667) against righties over the last two weeks, and current New York hitters have just a .319 xwOBA in 93 combined plate appearances against Williams. The Nats should be favored in this game, so you have to get creative for more interesting odds.

David Peterson under 4.5 Ks (-105 at DraftKings)
Sticking with the same game, we’re looking at David Peterson to go under his strikeout prop on Tuesday night. The Mets left-hander just made his first start of the season since undergoing hip surgery, and he gave up seven hits and three runs while striking out only three batters against the Dodgers. This might be an even tougher matchup against the Nationals, who have a minuscule 9.7% strikeout rate and a .396 batting average against Peterson in 62 combined plate appearances. 

Dane Dunning under 16.5 outs recorded (+100 at DraftKings)
Dane Dunning isn’t what you call an innings eater. The 29-year-old has gone under this line in seven straight starts for the Rangers, and he’s averaging just 82.9 pitches per game in that span. As for the matchup, the Tigers have the fifth-highest OPS (.750) in the league against righties over the last month. The wind will also be blowing strongly out to left field, which could only help Detroit generate more runs and chase Dunning early. 

Luis Gil to record a win (+130 at DraftKings)
This is a huge pitching mismatch. Luis Gil has surrendered only 14 hits and three earned runs to go along with 44 strikeouts over his last six starts, and he picked up the win in all six. Meanwhile, Bailey Ober is starting to struggle with 13 earned runs and five homers allowed over his last three starts for Minnesota. As for the offenses, the Yankees and Twins rank first and 26th, respectively, in OPS against righties over the last three weeks.

Yordan Alvarez and Dansby Swanson to record a hit parlay (+102 at DraftKings)
These are two hitters we’re looking at for different reasons. Houston’s Yordan Alvarez is starting to catch fire with 12 hits in his last 26 at-bats (.462), and he’s recorded at least one base hit in 15 of his last 16 games. Dansby Swanson isn’t having a good season at the plate for the Cubs, but he’s 7-11 with two doubles and a triple against White Sox starter Chris Flexen in his career. This is a solid breakout spot for him. 

Matt Vierling to hit a home run (+600 at FanDuel)
Remember how we mentioned the strong wind blowing out to left field in Arlington? Well, Dunning is also giving up the highest barrel rate in MLB among 128 qualified pitchers, so this is a match made in heaven for a home run prop. We’re eyeing Tigers third baseman Matt Vierling, who’s been absolutely on fire with four home runs, a .395 batting average and a .791 slugging percentage over the last 15 days. Six of his seven homers this season have come off right-handed pitching. This is a great price and an even better matchup.