Rookie Sensation Paul Skenes Faces Dodgers While LA is in a Bit of a Slump

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: NBA Finals Eve
- MLB: Day full of potential offense
- News: JJ Redick to the Lakers?

The NBA Finals finally start tomorrow, with Dallas visiting Boston for Game 1 at 8:30pm ET on ABC. We’ll cover Game 1 tomorrow, but the series props are seeing a decent amount of movement for a series with a pretty heavy favorite:

In today’s newsletter, Malcolm is tracking Pirates rookie phenom Paul Skenes and a Mets vs. Nationals matchup that could produce a lot of runs.

Mets vs. Nationals over 9.5 total runs (+100 at FanDuel)
The reliability of the bullpens for both teams is questionable at best. Mets starter Luis Severino is in a rough patch, having allowed 5 runs across 5.1 innings in his last outing. For the Nats, Patrick Corbin has struggled significantly this season, as reflected by his 1-6 record and a 5.83 ERA.

Reds vs. Rockies Under 11.5 runs (-105 at FanDuel)
The Reds and Rockies are both positioned in the lower half of the league for runs scored, ranking 19th and 21st respectively. Their recent games, including a high-scoring anomaly to start this series, don't align with their usual output — as evidenced by the Reds struggling to exceed five runs and the Rockies being shut out or held to a single run in recent games. With Colorado’s Dakota Hudson performing solidly and Cincinnati’s Graham Ashcraft struggling, this game leans toward fewer runs.

Nick Pivetta Under 16.5 Outs (-140 at FanDuel) 
Boston starter Nick Pivetta's high pitch count per plate appearance (3.96 this year) demands he pitch cleanly to last six innings, a feat made more challenging by a Braves lineup with a solid hitting history against him, including 5 earned runs in a 4-inning earlier outing. The weather conditions favor hitters, and with Pivetta's tendency to allow fly balls, his day might be shorter than expected

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline (-132 at FanDuel) 
The Rays have been particularly effective against left-handed pitchers this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game in those matchups. They face the Marlins’ Braxton Garrett, who has struggled notably in his home starts this season, with a 10.25 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over 9 2/3 innings, allowing 11 earned runs. Miami's performance dips significantly at home following a loss of nine runs or more, holding a 0-6 record in such games this season.

Logan Gilbert over 6.5 strikeouts recorded (+126 at FanDuel)
The Oakland Athletics have shown poor plate discipline, ranking 3rd-highest in strikeout rate (26.6%) over the past 30 days. With right-handers recently thriving against this lineup, this trend is expected to continue, making it likely for a right-handed pitcher to surpass the strikeout threshold.

Dodgers vs. Pirates no runs first inning (-105 at FanDuel) 
Paul Skenes’ excellent form (three earned runs over his last 18 innings) contrasts with Pittsburgh’s weak offense (22nd in runs scored). Dodgers pitcher James Paxton, apart from his outings against Cincinnati, has been formidable (0.57 ERA in May if those starts are excluded). These are two pitchers who aren’t prone to surrendering a ton of runs, let alone in the first inning. 

Jordan Hicks under 2.5 earned runs (-115 at DraftKings)
Giants pitcher Jordan Hicks has kept his earned runs under this line in most starts this season, particularly effective in away games (4 of 5 under the line). Against an Arizona team batting just .122 against him, Hicks’s is positioned well to limit runs, as seen when he allowed only 1 run in an earlier matchup this season.