A Couple of Road Teams Look to Take Advantage of Clubs with Mediocre Home Records Tonight

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Celtics roll
- MLB: Struggling home teams play tonight
- News: Stanley Cup preview

Before the NBA Playoffs began, most people weren’t asking if the Celtics would win, but instead, how easy would they make it look? Boston then skated through the Eastern Conference playoffs without much resistance, which made pundits ask if the Celtics’ road was too easy — and were the Dallas Mavericks peaking at the right time to challenge them?

Well, after another playoff blowout in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, the Celtics showed us what we knew but might have forgotten: They were the best team in the NBA this season. The sportsbooks are trying not to overcorrect yet, though. The Celtics were 6.5-point favorites in Game 1, but after that big win, FanDuel has them as 7-point favorites for Game 2. Boston is now at -420 to win the NBA Finals, with Dallas at +330.

In today’s newsletter, Craig is tracking the Marlins and Padres struggles at home, and what a potentially sidelined Juan Soto could mean for Aaron Judge.

Nationals under 1.5 first 5 innings (-130 at DraftKings)
We like Chris Sale to bounce back after his blip against the Athletics (4 IP, 8 ER). The Nationals are batting .226/.294/.325 against lefties, so tonight’s matchup represents a quality rebound opportunity. Sale was lights out from April 26 to May 26, generating a 0.69 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 34.2% strikeout rate. The Nationals are worse at home by several measures and we expect them to struggle to score, especially early.

Guardians moneyline (-112 at FanDuel)
The Marlins are 11-23 at home with a -62 run differential, and they’ll enter play against southpaw Logan Allen with a league-worst .589 OPS versus lefties. While Allen hasn’t been sharp in recent starts, he’ll be supported by a very good offense. The Guardians rank second in MLB in runs scored on the road (5.19), are fifth in OPS vs. lefties, and face Ryan Weathers, who has a 5.33 ERA at home.

Garrett Crochet over 16.5 outs (-138 at FanDuel)
Crochet is riding a streak of seven starts with a game score of 61 or better, and he recorded at least 17 outs in five of his last six. Since April 29, Crochet has produced a 1.35 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 35.1% strikeout rate across 40 innings, while limiting opponents to a .160/.199/.264 line. The Red Sox own a 28.3% strikeout rate against lefties and struggle against the cutter, Crochet’s top secondary offering.

Aaron Judge over 0.5 walks (-125 at DraftKings)
Pay attention to the status of Juan Soto (forearm discomfort) prior to considering this one. If he rests, Aaron Judge will be left on an island, so to speak, and it will be much easier to pitch around him. One could argue it would be irresponsible not to pitch around Judge. It’s one thing to hope for the best when navigating two 1.000-plus OPS hitters, but Judge will stick out like a sore thumb without protection.

Yankees over 3.5 runs (-135 at DraftKings)
Even without Soto, the Yankees still complement Judge with slugger Giancarlo Stanton and lead-off man Anthony Volpe, who carry an .888 and .886 OPS, respectively, over the last month. Another wrinkle to consider is Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s reverse platoon splits. He allows a .782 OPS vs. right-handers compared to .537 against lefties. Finally, it’s not uncommon for teams to remain in form, at least in the immediate-term, in the wake of a key injury. 

Diamondbacks moneyline (+105 at DraftKings)
The Padres are riding a five-game skid, including a sweep in Los Angeles against the Angels, one of the worst home teams in baseball. Fernando Tatis and Co. are bizarrely poor at home as well with a 13-20 record and -35 run differential. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have a better run differential on the road (+22) than at home (-22). They’ll turn to starter Brandon Pfaadt, who has a 0.99 WHIP since April 17 (56.1 IP).

Astros -0.5 first 3 innings (+110 at DraftKings)
We’re looking for the Astros to jump on the Angels and starter Griffin Canning early in tonight’s matchup. On a macro level, the Angels are one of the worst home teams in baseball by a number of measures, including runs allowed. On a micro level, Canning is struggling early in starts (6.57 ERA first time through the order) and current Astros hitters are batting .300/.380/.557 with six homers against him.