Sierra Leone is the Belmont Stakes Favorite, Ahead of Derby and Preakness Winners

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Belmont Stakes odds
- MLB: Look for low score in KC
- Soccer: International friendlies on tap
- News: Swiatek wins French Open

Sierra Leone is the favorite at today’s Belmont Stakes, which will take place at Saratoga Race Course because of construction at Belmont Park. Post time is 6:41pm ET, and the 10-horse field features Kentucky Derby winner Mystic Dan (6/1) and Preakness Stakes winner Seize The Grey (4/1). Sierra Leone, who lost to Mystic Dan in the Derby by a nose, starts this morning at 2/1.

Two of Todd Pletcher’s horses, Mindframe and Antiquarian, follow at 7/1 and 10/1, respectively. The odds don’t get very long in today’s 156th Belmont, as Pletcher’s third horse in the race, Protective, is listed at 17/1 — the biggest number you can find on FanDuel right now. Resilience (11/1), who finished 6th in the Kentucky Derby, Honor Marie (12/1), who was 8th in the Derby, The Wine Steward (15/1), and Dornoch (15/1), who finished 18 lengths back in 10th at the Derby, round out the field.

Because officials didn’t want horses to start on the far turn at the Belmont’s temporary home in Saratoga, the race has been shortened from 1.5 to 1.25 miles.

In today’s newsletter, Malcolm is covering Yankees’ starter Nestor Cortes’s home strength and potentially quiet days offensively in Kansas City and DC. In soccer, Sam is looking at international friendlies, including Euro 2024 tune-ups and the USMNT, along with a match in the Copa Libertadores.

Angels first five innings moneyline (+132 at FanDuel) 
The Angels have shown resilience at home, winning four of their last six games. Although their offense has been quiet, scoring only nine runs in the past three games, they face Houston’s Hunter Brown, who has struggled significantly, allowing 10 runs in his last four starts. Brown’s track record against the Angels includes six runs in his last two outings. The Astros have also faltered on the road, losing four of their last six games and managing only seven runs in their last three.  Angels lefty Tyler Anderson has shown recent dominance on the mound, giving up no more than one run in his last four starts. 

Yankees moneyline (-122 at FanDuel) 
The Yankees have an advantage against the Dodgers tonight with Nestor Cortes on the mound, who boasts a stellar 3-1 record and a 1.12 ERA at home. His ability to stifle key left-handed hitters such as Ohtani, Freeman, and Muncy is crucial. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ offense has shown inconsistency, scoring four runs or fewer in three of their last five games, including a shutout. The Yankees, conversely, have been on a scoring spree, racking up seven or more runs in four of their last five games.

Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-128 at FanDuel) 
The Red Sox are aiming to bounce back from a disappointing outing on Friday and will look to return to the groove they were in when they scored 14 runs on Thursday. They face White Sox starter Nick Nastrini, who has struggled mightily with a 9.74 ERA and couldn’t get past the fourth inning in his last start. The White Sox, enduring a dismal season, have lost their last 14 games. Brayan Bello will start for the Red Sox, and despite Boston’s lack of star power, their lineup has been effective and should pressure Nastrini.

Nick Castellanos over 2+ total bases (+105 at FanDuel) 
Mets’ starter Sean Manaea has had a decent season so far with a 3-2 record and a 3.63 ERA, but he’s coming off a poor outing, surrendering five earned runs. He now faces a formidable Phillies lineup, and he particularly struggles against Nick Castellanos, who is 5-for-11 with two home runs against him. Castellanos has been in great form, achieving multiple bases in six of his last seven games, making him a key player to watch.

Sean Manaea under 15.5 outs (-135 at DraftKings) 
The Phillies have excelled against left-handed pitchers, and while Manaea managed to pitch six innings in his last outing against Philadelphia, he benefited from some favorable circumstances, including a low-pitch fifth inning. With the game being played in a smaller park in London, the Mets' bullpen is well-prepared and will likely step in early if Manaea faces any difficulties.

Mariners vs. Royals under 8.5 total runs (-105 at FanDuel) 
Luis Castillo has been impressive for Seattle with a 2.99 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 78.1 innings. He faces a lineup that lacks power hitters. Castillo has held the Royals to a .194/.219/.300 slash line in 93 combined at-bats. On the other hand, Kansas City’s starter, Alec Marsh, holds a solid 3.77 ERA but is looking to rebound after two shaky outings. Given the pitching strengths and both teams’ offensive struggles, this game points towards a low-scoring affair.

Braves vs. Nationals no runs in the first inning (-120 at FanDuel) 
The Braves have struggled to ignite their offense early in recent games, and facing Washington’s MacKenzie Gore will be challenging. In his last start against the Braves, Gore pitched 6.1 innings with one earned run and 10 strikeouts. Meanwhile, veteran Charlie Morton, who has found his rhythm, pitched six scoreless innings in his last start for Atlanta. The Nationals are the worst team in the league for first-inning runs, averaging just 0.23 per game and even lower at home with 0.19 per game.

Denmark to win (+120 at DraftKings)
The Euros are just around the corner and this weekend teams will play their final friendless to fine-tune before the matches count. Norway, who will miss out on this summer’s tournament, face the Danes, who are in a tough group including favorites England — making it vital they start the tournament well. Kasper Hjulmand’s Denmark come into this having beaten Sweden 2-1 in the last friendly and will expect to beat Norway, even if they do have Erling Haaland, who scored a hat-trick against Kosovo in their friendly. Besides Haaland and Arsenal’s Martin Odegaard, this Norway team isn’t stacked with talent. Man City youngster Oscar Bobb has promise and Dortmund’s Julian Ryerson played in the Champions League final, but Denmark are superior across the pitch, from front to back. At plus money, look for them to use their game smarts and get over the line.

Belgium -2 (-138 at Bet365)
You always have to be a little careful wagering on friendlies, especially with a big tournament starting in less than a week. You often see players protecting their fitness, looking to avoid injuries and not playing at 100%. That said, the gulf in class is so great between Belgium and Luxembourg that it shouldn’t matter. Belgium are ranked third in the world, 84 places higher than today’s visitors. There’s no doubt that a third-place ranking is too high for this Belgium team, but they’re still vastly superior to Luxembourg and should beat them with ease. Belgium haven’t lost a game since the World Cup and are going under the radar heading into this tournament, despite that ranking. They have a world class player in Kevin De Bruyne and a host of other top-level talent alongside him. We’re likely to see Romelu Lukaku return to the team today, and with his attributes he should be able to bully the visitors. We should see a heavy victory by the hosts today.

Alvaro Morata to score (-138 at Bet365)
For their final game before Euro 2024 Spain decided to face Northern Ireland, a team that they’re expected to beat with ease given that they are -910 favorites. Spain come into today on the back of a 5-0 win over Andorra and now face a Northern Ireland team who are yet to play a game in this international break, something which should give Spain an extra advantage. If we’re going to see goals then we can’t look past the Spanish captain, Alvaro Morata. He’s a much-maligned player, but with 34 goals in 72 caps for Spain and spearheading a team full of creative talent, there’s a very high chance for goals here. He didn’t score against Andorra and will be desperate to get himself firing ahead of Euro 2024.

Colombia to win (+175 at BetRivers)
The USMNT host Colombia in a Copa America warmup game later this afternoon. The US team won the Concacaf Nations League in March, but the standard of that competition isn’t the highest currently. Today they face a team who offer a massive step up in quality. Colombia haven’t lost in 21 games and have won six in a row. This is a team who are in the running to win the Copa America and haven’t lost to the US since 2005. You always need to be careful with friendlies, but at +175 you have to look at Colombia given their recent record.

Gremio win and Both Teams to Score-No (+125 at Bet365)
Brazil’s Gremio face Argentinian side Estudiantes in their final group stage game of the Copa Libertadores, South America’s answer to the European Champions League. The other two teams in Group C have played their final fixture, so we know that Estudiantes will finish bottom of the group regardless of the outcome of this game, while a win would allow Gremio to top the group and avoid Fluminense in the knockout rounds. Gremio have been solid but unspectacular so far and have averaged less than a goal conceded per game. They’re the team with the motivation to win, and come into today with three clean sheets in a row in the Copa Libertadores — including the last time they faced Estudiantes. They won that game 1-0, despite having just 10 men for 24 minutes. They should be able to win here and avoid conceding a goal in what has become a meaningless game for Estudiantes.

Total Mexico Goals - 0 (+120 at Bet365)
We have another warm up for Copa America with Mexico facing Brazil in Texas. This is going to be a really tough game for Mexico. Brazil’s last two games were back in March when they beat England 1-0 and had a 3-3 draw with Spain. They’re stacked with talent and crucially they have good players in goal and defense, including Alisson, Danilo, Eder Militao and Marquinhos. With defenders of that quality and Mexico’s recent performances, look for Jaime Lozano’s team to fail to score tonight. They managed just one goal against a poor Bolivian team earlier in the month and failed to score against Uruguay on Thursday. Santiago Gimenez is likely to start for Mexico, but the forward has just four goals in 26 games for his country, which goes some way to show why they will struggle to break down Brazil.

Endrick to score (+180 at DraftKings)
We don’t know exactly what team Dorival Junior will put out for Brazil, particularly in attacking positions. With Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo both playing big parts in Real Madrid’s Champions League win last week, there’s a strong chance they could start on the bench. That would mean a start for Real Madrid-bound Endrick. The 17-year old is the most talked about young player in the game, and despite just four caps for Brazil, comes into today with goals in each of his last two appearances for the Selecao. He opened his account for his country scoring the winner against England, then followed it up with another against Spain. He should start, but even if he doesn’t he’ll fancy his chances of a goal against a team that gave up four to Uruguay just days ago. He’s a special talent with the world at his feet and could be the difference maker here.