Mariners' Gilbert Faces Hapless White Sox and Opposing Pitcher Who Struggles on the Road

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Kyrie’s disappearing act
- MLB: Soto is back for the Yankees
- News: Clark not selected for Olympics

Luka Doncic took the blame for the Mavericks’ Game 2 loss in the NBA Finals, but it was Kyrie Irving who has disappeared so far in this series. Doncic scored 32 points and added 11 assists and 11 rebounds last night, becoming only the fourth player in NBA history to get a 30-point triple-double in a loss in the Finals (Jerry West, Charles Barkley, and LeBron James were the others). Irving has 28 points combined in the first two games of the series, shooting just 13-37 from the field as Dallas finds itself in an 0-2 hole as the Finals head to Texas.

In today’s newsletter, Craig is tracking a Mariners’ pitching advantage against the White Sox, the Yankees offensive’s support of Carlos Rodon, and the A’s struggling bats.

Mariners -1.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
We like the Mariners’ matchup against Erick Fedde, who is demonstrably worse away from home (0.95 vs. 5.70 ERA). The Mariners are 21-11 at T-Mobile Park compared to the White Sox’s 5-27 road record. Chicago is 5-5 against the spread over their last 10, but 28-38 ATS overall and 11-20 on the road. Finally, the White Sox rank 30th in runs scored since May 1, suggesting their bats might be smothered tonight.

Logan Gilbert over 18.5 outs (+100 at DraftKings)
Gilbert will need to work efficiently in order to hit the over here, but we like what the metrics suggest on that front. Gilbert is averaging 19.6 outs at home, and T-Mobile Park plays as one of most pitcher friendly venues in the league. The White Sox rank dead last in hits and own the league’s second lowest walk rate, so Gilbert should be able to pitch into and perhaps through the sixth inning. 

Yankees moneyline (-126 at FanDuel)
There is reason to back the Yankees against Seth Lugo and the Royals. Lugo has been key to their success up to this point, but the metrics paint him as a good pitcher, not a Cy Young candidate. The Yankees are 24-11 on the road, and they’re supporting Carlos Rodon with 7.67 runs per game over his last six starts, all wins. Rodon is doing his part too, recording a quality start in each of those turns.

Juan Soto over 2.5 combined hits + runs + RBI (+115 at DraftKings)
Being forced to sit is among the most challenging experiences for players like Soto. Aaron Boone expects him back tonight, and his presence adds an obvious pillar to the lineup. But consider the emotional lift as well — both his own and the team’s. Soto has four hits and a homer in 12 at-bats against Lugo, plus four walks on top of that, so it’s reasonable to anticipate him being in position to deliver the over.

Orioles first to 4 runs (+108 at FanDuel)
The Orioles are on the verge of a four-game sweep against the Rays in Tampa Bay. They’ll send ace Corbin Burnes to the hill against Ryan Pepiot. Burnes has been as advertised this season, and he has yet to allow four runs in a start so far. Pepiot, meanwhile, has a 5.60 ERA since May 5 and a 5.24 ERA at home. Making matters worse is the Rays’ below-average defense against a team without excessive swing-and-miss in its game.

Rockies most hits (+150 at FanDuel)
On a macro level, the Rockies average more hits per game than the Twins overall. And they average more hits per game on the road than the Twins do at home. On a micro level, Rockies starter Dakota Hudson, unsurprisingly, is pitching much better away from Coors Field since May, and he has allowed 17 hits across his last 23 road innings. Chris Paddack, meanwhile, has scattered 31 hits across his last 27 frames at Target Field.

Athletics under 0.5 runs first 3 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
The Athletics are striking out at a 26.1% rate and batting .171 with a .075 ISO on their current road trip. They also feature a .189/.288/.312 line against power pitchers, a category which includes Padres starter Dylan Cease. If the A’s can’t get to Cease in the first inning, it may be another long night at the dish. They’re averaging 1.8 runs across their last six games, a span that includes two shutouts.