Good Matchup: Kevin Pillar is Batting .486 Against Left-Handed Pitching

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: MLB futures
- MLB: Pillar’s success against lefties
- News: Lakers back to square one

The Major League Baseball season is about 40% done, and the Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers are leading their divisions. Now that we’ve seen a good amount of baseball, MLB futures are becoming more data-driven. Here’s where FanDuel has some full-season bets as of this morning:

In today’s newsletter, Jack is tracking a tough matchup for Kansas City’s Brady Singer, the Diamondbacks to get on the board quickly, and Bryan Woo to continue his great start to the year.

Triston McKenzie over 2.5 walks (-115 at DraftKings)
Triston McKenzie is battling a few issues this season, and one of them has been his command. The Guardians starter has the second-highest walk rate (13.1%) in MLB among 128 qualified pitchers, and he’s gone over this line in five of his last six starts. The Reds have the third-lowest swing rate (45.9%) and the sixth-highest walk rate (9.2%) in the league this year, and they’re walking at a 10.5% clip against righties over the last week. 

Mets moneyline (-142 at FanDuel)
The Mets have been absolutely on fire against left-handed pitching of late. New York is batting .343 with a .417 on-base percentage and a 1.007 OPS against lefties over the last two weeks, which all rank No. 1 in MLB over that span. Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo was clobbered for nine hits and nine earned runs in his last start against the Rays, and this is a much tougher matchup for the southpaw. The biggest concern here is New York’s long trip back from London, but this is still a solid price on a red-hot lineup. 

Brady Singer under 16.5 outs recorded (-110 at DraftKings)
This is a brutal matchup for Kansas City’s Brady Singer. Since the start of May, the Yankees have the highest OPS (.805), the highest wRC+ (131) and the second-highest batting average (.266) in the league against right-handed pitching. Current Yankees hitters are also batting .313 against him with a .349 wOBA in 57 combined plate appearances. Singer has gone under this line in seven of his last 10 starts, and this is a dangerous lineup that can knock him out of the game early. 

Bryan Woo to record a win (+110 at DraftKings)
What a start to the year it’s been for Bryan Woo. The Mariners pitcher is 3-0 through six starts with a 1.07 ERA, a 0.535 WHIP and a .139 batting average allowed, and he’s gone six shutout innings in three of his last four starts. The White Sox are struggling against right-handed pitching, as they rank 28th in the league in batting average (.206) and 26th in OPS (.623) against righties over the last three weeks. Drew Thorpe will be making his MLB debut for Chicago on the mound, so Woo will have a huge advantage early in the game. 

Diamondbacks team total over 2.5 first five innings (-115 at DraftKings)
This is a great spot for the Diamondbacks to get off to a hot start at the dish. In 29 combined plate appearances against Angels lefty Jose Suarez, current D-backs hitters are batting .357 with a whopping .435 xwOBA and a .677 expected slugging percentage. Arizona is also batting .291 with a .849 OPS and a 141 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks. 

Dominic Smith and Kevin Pillar to record a hit parlay (+117 at FanDuel)
Who’s up for another hit parlay? Dominic Smith doesn’t have great numbers against right-handed pitching this season, but he loves facing off against Zach Wheeler. In 33 career plate appearances against the Phillies ace, Smith is batting .419 with a double and a home run. As for Kevin Pillar, he’s batting .486 against left-handed pitching this season and .500 against lefties over the last three weeks, while Diamondbacks starter Jordan Montgomery has the second-highest expected batting average allowed (.305) among qualified pitchers.

Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+420 at FanDuel)
Shea Langeliers is a textbook boom-or-bust hitter. The Athletics catcher is batting just .199 this season, but he’s hit 12 home runs and ranks seventh in the league in barrel rate among 150 qualified hitters. This is a great spot for Langeliers to boom, as Padres starter Randy Vasquez is giving up a 9.2% barrel rate and has surrendered four homers over his last three starts. Petco Park is also the friendliest stadium in MLB to home runs this year.