Aberg Chased by Major Champions as Weekend Begins at U.S. Open

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: US Open Round 3
- MLB: A Mets resurgence?
- Soccer: Euro 2024 kicks off
- News: Barkley to retire from TV

Ludvig Åberg, the 24-year-old Swedish golfer who turned down LIV as a student-athlete at Texas Tech, is the leader at the U.S. Open going into the weekend. Fourteen players are within five strokes of him, including Bryson DeChambeau one back at -4, Rory McIlroy and Tony Finau at -3, PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele at -1, and Sergio Garcia — who tees off at 1:51pm ET — at even par. Here’s a sampling of what FanDuel has this morning:

In today’s newsletter, Craig is looking for more strikeouts from the Cubs’ Shota Imanaga and likes the Diamondbacks’ matchup against a White Sox pitcher with road struggles. Sam is back with soccer coverage as the Euros begin. He’s tracking Spain’s young emerging superstar Lamine Yamal to be involved in a goal and is looking for a low-scoring match from Italy and Albania.

Athletics +0.5 first 3 innings (-130 at DraftKings)
The Athletics enjoyed a mini-breakout on Friday night with four runs in the first inning en route to five total. We’re not banking on another offensive eruption from the A’s, but they’ll have a chance to keep things close against Minnesota’s Bailey Ober, who has a 7.61 ERA and 1.73 WHIP across his last five starts. Oakland will counter with Joey Estes, who has pitched better than his 4.78 ERA indicates.

Mets moneyline (-120 at Caesars)
The Mets are playing better baseball of late as they try to fend off another firesale. They’re 9-4 since May 30th and own a +8 run differential across their modest three-game winning streak. They’ll face off against Padres’ rookie Adam Mazur, who is making his third career start after getting blasted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in his most recent turn.

Guardians moneyline (+108 at FanDuel)
Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco has not been good this season, but he’s demonstrated that he still has a little bit of game left. And that may be enough against the struggling Blue Jays, who have a -29 run differential at home and own a .593 OPS in June. Their top hitters — George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette — simply aren’t providing the juice to power this Blue Jays lineup, while the Guardians continue to play at a high level across multiple facets.

Orioles -1.5 (+115 at Caesars)
The O’s are 16-7 straight-up and 13-10 against the spread following a loss, and this is a spot in which they can even the series with a win. Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker has completed six innings only once across his last five starts, plus he will be without JT Realmuto behind the dish. O’s starter Grayson Rodriguez, meanwhile, has a .194 BAA, 2.31 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP since April 29th.

Shota Imanaga over 5.5 strikeouts (-134 at FanDuel)
The Cubs’ Shota Imanaga is back on track after a minor blip, and we like him against the rival Cardinals despite St. Louis playing better baseball of late. The Cardinals don’t strikeout excessively against left-handers, but six punchouts is a line Imanaga has met in seven of his last eight. It’s also reasonable to expect Imanaga to pitch deep into today’s contest — the Cards own a .622 OPS against southpaws — so he should face enough batters to hit the over.

Yankees -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Game 2 of Yankees vs. Red Sox favors the guests on paper. Not only is lefty Carlos Rodon in top form with a 2.28 ERA and .199 BAA since May 8th, but he completed at least six frames in seven straight. The Yankees have won each of Rodon’s last seven starts behind 7.1 runs of support per game over that span. The Bombers will take aim at off-speed heavy right-hander Cooper Criswell.

Diamondbacks over 4.5 runs (-125 at DraftKings)
We’re going to continue picking on White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde away from Guaranteed Rate Field. He tossed a gem in Seattle in his most recent start, but the Mariners are offensively challenged, especially at home. Fedde surrendered 12 earned runs across 16 innings heading into that game, and we’re looking for the Dbacks to have some success at the dish after plating 30 runs across their last four games.

Spain to win (-104 at Bet365)
For the past couple of tournaments, Croatia have felt like they’re past their best, yet they still find ways to progress and do well. They reached the semis of the World Cup just 18 months ago. However, age has finally caught up with them and their greatest-ever player, Luka Modric, is now 38-years-old and not what he was in his pomp. The team has good players and they do always work well together, but this Spanish team are better than people think and legitimate contenders in this tournament. They blend experience with Champions League winners like Dani Carvajal and Rodri with some exciting young talent. They’re at nearly even money to win here, which feels absolutely huge.

Lamine Yamal to score or assist (+137 at Bet365)
We talked above about Spain’s blend of experience and youth, and one such example of the next generation of Spanish talent is Lamine Yamal. The Barcelona youngster only turns 17 the day before the Euro 2024 final next month. He’s the next name off the Barcelona pipeline and has everything to be a top player. His dribbling is great, he’s quick and his passing is fantastic. Yamal is likely to start on the right flank for Spain and could be their X-factor in this tournament. He’s direct and could cause Croatia real problems. He had five goals and five assists in La Liga this season, and if he’s unleashed here there’s a great chance he could have an instant impact and add to the two goals he’s scored in his seven caps for Spain — or set up somebody else.

Italy vs Albania under 2.5 goals (-125 at Bet365)
It’s important that Italy get off to a quick start over Albania, who are expected to be the whipping boys of Group B. Italy have been hugely underwhelming since winning Euro 2020. They failed to qualify for the World Cup in Qatar and finished second behind England in qualifying, who beat them home and away. Italy scored just one goal in their two warmup games against Bosnia and Turkey, and with Gianluca Scamacca leading the line you can understand why. He’s not of the standard that Italian strikers have been historically and this team isn’t blessed with goalscorers. Albania won their qualifying group but scored just 12 goals in eight games and again, aren’t blessed with great attacking talent, so this match should be low scoring. 

Albania under 0.5 goals (-135 at Caesars)
As mentioned above, the Albanians won their qualifying group despite scoring just 12 goals, the lowest total of any group winner. That’s going to be an issue against an Italian team that might not be the best but still have some good players in defensive positions. Gianluigi Donnarumma is an excellent goalkeeper and will believe that he can keep the Albanians out. The Albanian attack will see Armando Broja lead the line. The 22-year-old had a poor season with just 13 appearances for Chelsea, of which most were from the bench, and eight sub appearances for Fulham — all of which totaled one goal. They aren’t stacked in attacking players and will struggle to score here.

Match covered in our Soccer AM coverage, which is posted on sportmoney.com by 8:30am
on Saturdays and Sundays during the European soccer season:

Hungary to win and under 3.5 goals (+333 at Bet365)
The Swiss are heavily favored with the sportsbooks, but given their record since the Qatar World Cup that feels like a reach. They won just four of their 10 games in qualifying, finishing second in their group behind a poor Romania team, and their best players are either aging, or in Breel Embolo’s case, not fully healthy. Meanwhile Hungary have lost just once in 16 games, and that was a friendly defeat. They have Dominik Szoboszlai, who is exceptional for them and plays at a level that he rarely reached for Liverpool this season. What’s more important is that they play as a cohesive team unit. They should win and do it with under 3.5 goals against a mediocre Swiss team.