With 3-Shot Lead, DeChambeau is -125 to Win the U.S. Open

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Major win for LIV?
- MLB: Twins on a roll
- Soccer: Euro favorites England kick off
- News: Edmonton avoids sweep

Bryson DeChambeau has a three-shot lead going into the final round of the U.S. Open. He’s looking to become the second player to win a major as a LIV golfer (Brooks Koepka won last year’s PGA Championship). Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Matthieu Pavon are currently tied for second at -4. Ludvig Åberg, who started the third round with the lead, shot a 73 yesterday and is likely out of contention at five shots back.

In today’s newsletter, Jack is covering a few great pitching matchups, including Corbin Burnes vs. Zack Wheeler and Kutter Crawford (who has pitched much better than his record) vs. Marcus Stroman. In Euros action, Sam is tracking England’s wealth of scoring options and Benjamin Sesko’s chances for Slovenia.

Orioles -0.5 first five innings (+114 at FanDuel)
Aces Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler will go head-to-head on Sunday afternoon, and the slight edge goes to Burnes and the Orioles. In eight home starts this season, Burnes has a 1.70 ERA and 49 strikeouts. He also has a pristine track record against this lineup, as current Phillies hitters are batting just .102 with a .227 xwOBA and a 38.8% strikeout rate in 67 plate appearances against him. Meanwhile, the Orioles have the highest OPS (.879) and wRC+ (149) against righties this month. 

Mitchell Parker over 4.5 Ks (-105 at DraftKings)
Mitchell Parker has gone cold in the strikeout department with only three Ks in his last 11.2 innings of work for the Nationals, but this is the ideal matchup for him to get back on track. Over the last week, the Marlins have a whopping 34.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Miami also has the highest chase rate in MLB this year, and Parker’s best skill is his ability to force hitters to chase out of the zone. 

Yankees vs. Red Sox first five innings under 4.5 runs (+100 at DraftKings)
It’s scary to consider an under in any game involving the Yankees, but both starting pitchers have solid track records against these lineups. Current Yankees hitters are batting just .130 with a .201 wOBA and a 27.5% strikeout rate against Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford. On the other side, current Boston hitters are batting only .143 with a .187 wOBA against New York starter Marcus Stroman. 

Dane Dunning under 15.5 outs recorded (-102 at FanDuel)
It hasn’t been a banner year for Dane Dunning. The Rangers right-hander is on pace to record the worst ERA of his career (4.80), and he’s giving up the highest barrel rate (12.8%) and the sixth-highest xwOBA (.360) in MLB among 127 qualified pitchers. Because of his struggles, Dunning has gone under this line in eight of his last nine starts. He’s thrown more than 90 pitches just twice in that span. 

Game 1 - Twins team total over 4.5 runs (-122 at FanDuel)
There’s no slowing down the Twins lineup right now. Minnesota has gone over this team total in five of their last six games while averaging 8.2 runs per game in that span. The Twins are also batting a ridiculous .465 with a 1.211 OPS and a 242 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last week. Athletics starter JP Sears has surrendered nine earned runs over his last three starts, and this is a brutal matchup for the lefty.

Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jesse Winker to record a hit parlay (+127 at FanDuel)
Fernando Tatis Jr. is on a heater at the dish. The Padres star is batting .469 with a 1.447 OPS against righties since the start of June, and he’s recorded at least one hit in 18 of his last 20 games. As for Jesse Winker, he’s batting .429 against left-handed pitching this month, and Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo has given up at least seven hits in two of his last three starts. 

Michael Busch to hit a home run (+500 at FanDuel)
Sunday’s matinee between the Cubs and Cardinals is the perfect matchup for a home run prop because the strong Wrigley Field wind is projected to blow straight out to left-center field. Michael Busch has the 12th-highest fly-ball rate (35.0%) in MLB among 150 qualified hitters, and a solid fly ball in this wind should be enough to clear the wall. Busch also leads the Cubs in slugging percentage against righties (.444), and only 10 pitchers have surrendered more homers this year than Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas.

Benjamin Sesko to score (+390 at FanDuel)
Denmark are favorites over Slovenia for a reason: They’ve got more experience in both international tournaments and at the top level of the club game. However, there’s one thing that Slovenia have that Denmark don’t, and that’s a striker who is arguably one of the best in the world aged 21 or under. Yes, Rasmus Hojlund is in a good place, but he’s no match for Benjamin Sesko. Sesko arrived at RB Leipzig last summer and spent the majority of the first half of the season on the bench thanks to the form of others, allowing him to get used to that level. Then after Christmas he exploded and finished with 14 goals despite starting just 17 league games. He’s quick yet very tall. He’s still raw but has everything to his game and at just under 4/1, he’s a great shout to score against this Danish team.

England to win and both teams to score (+250 at Bet365)
England come into the Euros as favorites, largely due to the incredible talents they have in attack. They have Europe’s best goalscorer this season, Harry Kane, the Premier League’s Player of the Season in Phil Foden, and Jude Bellingham, who just won the Champions League with Real Madrid. They should beat Serbia, the question is whether Serbia can score. The Serbs will likely start with Aleksandar Mitrovic up top and Dusan Vlahovic on the bench, but that duo, regardless of who plays, are dangerous. Not only that, but England’s defense aren’t as strong as usual with Harry Maguire at home through injury, Luke Shaw missing this first game with an injury, and John Stones a fitness doubt. This is a defense who aren’t that familiar with each other, and that gives Serbia a real chance to score — although it’s unlikely to be enough to get them anything from the game.

Bukayo Saka to score or assist (+110 at Bet365)
As mentioned above, it’s been an incredible season for English attackers, with Foden, Kane, and Bellingham all getting plaudits, and Cole Palmer breaking through for Chelsea and developing into a superstar. All that talk of other attacking talents and an injury at the end of the season has allowed Bukayo Saka to go under the radar. Saka is a supreme talent and somebody who Gareth Southgate views as essential to his attack. He’s really developed as a player this season, adding goals to his game and finishing with 16 goals and nine assists in 35 Premier League games for Arsenal. He has pace and smart movement, which can put him in dangerous positions, and he could be key to England getting a result against Serbia.

Match covered in our Soccer AM coverage, which is posted on sportmoney.com by 8:30am
on Saturdays and Sundays during the European soccer season:

Poland not to score (-105 at Caesars)
The Dutch team’s real strength at this tournament is at the back. Micky van de Ven had a huge season at Tottenham Hotspur and announced himself as one of the best defenders in the Premier League. Alongside him are Nathan Ake, who just won the title at Man City, and Virgil van Dijk, who is arguably the best defender on the planet on his day. That Dutch defense is scary, but Poland’s task of scoring against them has been made even tougher thanks to the injury to Robert Lewandowski. The Polish striker has a minor hamstring tear and has been ruled out, with Krzysztof Piatek taking his place. Piatek has had a good season in Turkey but he’s not at the level of Lewandwoski, and there’s a real lack of goal threat in the Polish lineup.

Xavi Simons to score or assist (+120 at Bet365)
The Dutch hopes are built on a strong defense, but they’ll need goals if they’re going to progress in the Euros. The front three will be made up of Memphis Depay, who is set to leave Atletico Madrid this summer after a poor spell there, Cody Gakpo, who has had a mediocre season at Liverpool, and 21-year-old Xavi Simons. Simons spent the season on loan in Germany at RB Leipzig, and he’s been one of their best players, if not their best. In 32 Bundesliga games he scored eight times and set up another 11. He’s a talented player and with Memphis and Gakpo both out of form, it’s essential that he steps up and creates a goal.