Ranger Suarez, Cole Ragans Lead Today's Pitching Opportunities

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Stanley Cup comeback
- MLB: Royals Ragans’ good matchup
- Soccer: Wirtz should get chances
- News: Monty Williams fired

The Oilers forced the Panthers to a Game 6 in Edmonton after a 5-3 win in south Florida last night. The only time in NHL history that a team down 0-3 in the Stanley Cup Final came back to win the series was in 1942, when the Maple Leafs beat the Red Wings. The last time that a team came back from 0-3 at any point of the NHL playoffs was in 2014, when then Kings took out the Sharks in the first round.

A major reason why Edmonton still has a chance is the play of Connor McDavid, who has 42 points during the playoffs — five shy of Wayne Gretzky’s record for most all time set back in 1985. If the McDavid and the Oilers force a Game 7, he could have a shot at breaking that mark.

In today’s newsletter, Malcolm is covering Cy Young contender Ranger Suarez’s matchup against the Padres, and the Mets and Rangers going in opposite directions. In our Euros coverage, Sam is tracking Florian Wirtz to get chances to score against Hungary and the Swiss to get a win over Scotland.

Diamondbacks vs. Nationals over 9.5 total runs (-105 at FanDuel) 
Brandon Pfaadt will start for Arizona, carrying a 4.38 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 14 starts. He’s striking out 23.9% of batters with a FIP of 3.41, indicating potential for an ERA drop. Patrick Corbin will pitch for Washington, with a 5.84 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP also over 14 starts, struggling with a low strikeout rate and high home run rate. Arizona’s offense is potent against left-handed pitching, but their bullpen struggles on the road. Washington has been hitting well recently, and the weather is expected to be warm, likely aiding offensive production.

Astros moneyline (-120 at FanDuel) 
The Astros have a clear advantage over the struggling White Sox. Houston’s bullpen ranks 14th in ERA, while Chicago’s ranks 28th. Offensively, the Astros are scoring 4.79 runs per game in June compared to the White Sox’s 4.2 runs. This performance gap, coupled with Houston’s overall better form, suggests a favorable outcome for the Astros.

Mets moneyline (-106 at FanDuel) 
The Mets have won six straight games while the Rangers have lost four in a row. The Mets’ offense has been dominant of late, and they now face Andrew Heaney, who has struggled consistently. Sean Manaea has been excellent on the road with a 2.81 ERA, giving New York a solid chance to continue their winning streak against a faltering Texas team.

Tigers vs. Braves no runs first inning (-135 at FanDuel) 
This series has seen minimal offensive output, with just six runs scored in two games. Reynaldo Lopez will pitch for the Braves with a 1.69 ERA, and Tarik Skubal will start for the Tigers with a 2.20 ERA. Both pitchers have been effective in limiting runs, setting up a strong possibility for a scoreless first inning.

Ranger Suarez over 4.5 strikeouts (-118 at FanDuel) 
Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has been dominant this season and struck out eight batters in his previous matchup against the Padres. He’s exceeded this strikeout line in 10 straight games when pitching at least 85 pitches. Suarez ranks in the 82nd percentile for strikeout rate, and every comparable lefty home starter has hit this mark against the Padres this year. Given his form and the Padres’ struggles against lefties with high strikeout rates, Suarez is well-positioned to surpass this line again.

Padres vs. Phillies under 8.5 total runs (-102 at FanDuel)
With two strong pitchers on the mound, this game leans toward a low-scoring affair. Suarez, a Cy Young contender, has consistently limited runs, and Matt Waldron, known for his effective knuckleball, has allowed two or fewer runs in his last seven starts. Both bullpens are reliable in high-leverage situations, suggesting a low total run count is likely.

Cole Ragans under 1.5 runs allowed (-120 at DraftKings)
The Athletics’ offensive struggles continue, ranking near the bottom in strikeouts and runs scored. The Royals’ Cole Ragans, who has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last six starts, looks poised to take advantage of this. He’s also recorded 45 strikeouts across 37 innings in this span, making it difficult for the Athletics to generate offense.

Florian Wirtz to score (+185 at BetRivers)
Germany hit Scotland for five goals in the opening game and looked hugely dangerous. Their young superstar Florian Wirtz had another great match, scoring the opening goal after just 10 minutes. The interplay between him and Jamaal Musiala in the dual 10 roles behind Kai Havertz was very fluid and allowed Wirtz to get into some dangerous positions. He took three shots against Scotland and looks like the Germans’ main goal threat going forward. Given the season he had for Bayer Leverkusen, scoring 18 goals in all competitions, it’s clear that he is dangerous in the opposition box. And given how poor Hungary were defensively against Switzerland in their first match, we should see chances fall to Wirtz.

Switzerland to win (-118 at BetRivers)
The most intriguing bet of Wednesday’s Euro 2024 slate has to be Switzerland to beat Scotland at -118. Scotland’s 5-1 defeat to the Germans on the opening day was the worst performance of any team in the competition so far. They were utterly hopeless, looking timid in the tackle, failing to press effectively, and letting the Germans have their way. Scotland surely cannot be that bad again, but they still will likely struggle to beat the Swiss, who really excelled in their 3-1 win over Hungary. There had been doubts over this team coming into the tournament after a poor qualifying campaign and disharmony in the camp, but they looked like a solid, cohesive team last time out and really should beat the Scots here.

Switzerland -1 (+270 at FanDuel)
As an extension of the above bet, we’re also looking at Switzerland -1 on the spread, at a juicy price of +270. It could be too big to give up, especially when Scotland lost their last game by four goals and the Swiss won theirs by two. If the Swiss play like they did against Hungary this has a very good chance of winning, even if the Scots play well. And if the Scottish don’t see significant improvement from the Germany defeat then this should win very easily. This wager really depends on how the Scots bounce back.

Match covered in our Soccer AM coverage, which is posted on sportmoney.com
by 8:30am ET for early European matches:

Croatia vs Albania under 2.5 goals (-110 at Bet365)
Backing under 2.5 goals might appear like a strange one here, given both Croatia and Albania’s first games in this tournament saw three goals scored in each, but stick with me. The Spanish walked all over Croatia, who were exceptionally poor on the day. With the greatest of respect to Albania, this is a dramatic step down in quality. Meanwhile Italy’s 2-1 win over Albania was impacted hugely by Albania scoring in the first minute. They immediately sat back and let Italy attack them. We’re unlikely to see such an early goal again, meaning this should be far tighter for longer. Given both teams need something from this game there’s unlikely to be many risks in their play, at least earlier on in the match.

Croatia to win by one goal (+250 at Bet365)
Croatia should win this one, although odds of -215 on the moneyline are far from appealing. This is an aging team with their talisman, 38-year old Luka Modric, not quite the player that he was at his peak. We’ve seen throughout international tournaments in recent years that Croatia are pragmatic, and that’s likely to be the case here. The Croats know their weaknesses, so they’ll likely come into today looking to manage the game, get a solitary goal and then just see the match out. This shouldn’t be high scoring and the Albanians are unlikely to let Croatia get too far ahead of them.