Brewers Can Take Advantage of Vasquez's Pitching Struggles

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Copa America favorites
- MLB: Josh Naylor’s advantage
- Soccer: Rough matchup for Portugal
- News: Edmonton forces Game 7

Copa America is underway with Argentina and Brazil favored to face off for the championship in Miami on July 14th. FanDuel has Argentina at +175, Brazil at +220, Uruguay at +550, Colombia at +1200, the U.S. at +1400 and Mexico at +1800. This weekend’s matchups are:

In today’s newsletter, Jack is tracking Marcus Stroman to cut down on walks against the Braves and a potential Angels upset over the Dodgers. And Sam is back with more from the Euros. He’s looking for the Portugal vs. Turkey match to see a lot of cards and for Romelu Lukaku to find the back of the net.

Marcus Stroman under 1.5 walks (+150 at DraftKings)
This is a scary bet to click considering Marcus Stroman has the highest out-of-zone rate (59.0%) and the ninth-highest walk rate (10.6%) among qualified pitchers this season, but he can avoid the free passes in this matchup. Atlanta is an aggressive lineup that ranks third in the league in swing rate, fifth in first-pitch swing rate and 25th in walk rate. Stroman has an impressive 1.4% walk rate in his career against current Braves hitters. 

Brewers moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)
Happy Fade Randy Vasquez Day to all who celebrate. For those unaware, the Padres starter ranks dead last among 363 pitchers who have faced at least 100 batters this year in expected ERA (6.48) and expected batting average (.331). Due to Vasquez’s struggles, San Diego is 2-7 in his nine starts this season. The Brewers should be favorites in this matchup against arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball right now. 

Josh Naylor over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-145 at DraftKings)
Josh Naylor will be licking his chops with this matchup on deck. In 13 career at-bats against Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios, Naylor is batting .462 with a home run and a double. The Guardians first baseman is also batting .412 with a 1.195 OPS against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks, and he’s cleared this line in five of his last six games. 

Jose Berrios under 3.5 Ks (+104 at FanDuel)
Jose Berrios is having the worst season of his career in terms of generating swings and misses. The Blue Jays right-hander ranks in the 14th percentile in whiff rate (20.0%) and the 21st percentile in strikeout rate (17.8%). In 104 combined plate appearances against Berrios, current Cleveland Guardians hitters are batting .319 with a .385 wOBA and a minuscule 7.7% strikeout rate. We saw this matchup just a week ago, and Berrios managed only one K in 6.0 innings of work. 

Angels moneyline (+300 at FanDuel)
No one ever wants to bet against the Dodgers, but are we sure they should be -375 favorites in this matchup? Scottie Scheffler was just +300 to win the U.S. Open last week. The Angels have a much better chance to win one baseball game than Scheffler did to beat 155 other golfers. They just beat the Dodgers 3-2 on Friday night, and current Angels hitters are batting .303 with a .375 wOBA against Tyler Glasnow. This could be worth a sprinkle. 

Juan Soto and Carlos Correa to record a hit parlay (+107 at FanDuel)
Juan Soto is fighting through a mini-slump right now, but a few at-bats against Braves starter Charlie Morton might be just what he needs. In 16 career plate appearances against Morton, Soto is batting .636 with three home runs. As for Carlos Correa, he’s on fire against left-handed pitching with a .412 batting average and a 1.391 OPS since the start of June — and he’s 3-5 against JP Sears in his career.

Michael Busch to hit a home run (+370 at FanDuel)
The Windy City is living up to its name today, as 17-mph winds with gusts over 30 mph are projected to blow straight out to center at Wrigley Field. Michael Busch can take advantage of these hitter-friendly conditions because he has the 13th-highest fly-ball rate (34.8%) and the 29th-highest barrel rate (12.9%) in MLB among qualified batters. Mets starter Tylor Megill is also giving up the highest fly-ball rate (31.3%) and barrel rate (11.3%) of his career, so this is a solid matchup for Busch.

Turkey win or draw (+140 at DraftKings)
Portugal dominated their game over Czech Republic: They had 19 shots, eight on target, and controlled the ball with 74% possession as they chased the game. They now face a Turkey team who looked very dangerous in their win over Georgia. Both teams are on three points and they each know a win here gives them a great chance of topping the group. Turkey combined real skill with heart and determination against Georgia. They have a tough tackling team but also some legitimate stardust. They also have a huge amount of supporters in the stadiums. Germany has the highest amount of Turkish residents of anywhere in the world outside of Turkey, making their games at this tournament effectively home games. That support, and their ever-improving team, means they can get either a win or draw against a Portugal team who dominated the Czechs without ever looking truly brilliant.

Over 2.5 Turkey cards (-110 at Bet365)
Despite winning the game, we saw the Turkish team get two bookings against Georgia. They tackled ferociously all game and got really stuck into their opposition. They now face a Portugal team who are a step up in not only class, but street smarts. When it comes to the dark arts there’s not many teams like Portugal, who have some real masters when it comes to tactical fouls and diving. This has the potential to be a really bad-tempered game.

Romelu Lukaku to score (+100 at Bet365)
The Belgians got humbled 1-0 by Slovakia, but they would have been hugely unhappy by the refereeing in that game. Romelu Lukaku put the ball in the Slovakian net on two occasions, with a goal ruled out thanks to an offside in the buildup and another ruled out for a handball in the buildup. He had three shots in the game, two on target, and despite a couple of heavy touches and one very poor effort that went wide, Lukaku did constantly get into dangerous positions. A goal should come for him at some point.

Belgium vs. Romania both teams to score (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Belgium had the bulk of possession against Slovakia but still let them take 10 shots — of which four went on target and one went in. You’d have to think that they’ll score here given the quality on their team and the chances they create, however the concern is whether they’ll concede. Given that Romania scored three against Ukraine, from just five shots on target, you have to think that there’s some regression coming. However, Romania kept making chances and worked well on the counterattack, which is what they’ll need to do against Belgium. Romania probably won’t win the game but they can at least score.

Match covered in our Soccer AM coverage, which is posted on sportmoney.com
by 8:30am ET for early European matches:

Czechia to win (-134 at BetRivers)
Both Georgia and Czechia come into this game on the back of defeats. The Georgians lost 3-1 to Turkey in what has been the game of Euro 2024 so far. Meanwhile the Czechs lost to Portugal in added time. Both teams impressed at points, but it was the Czechs who impressed most. Given the array of attacking talent on the Portuguese team, it was hugely impressive how well the Czechs dealt with them. Georgia offer a different threat, but you’d have to expect the Czechs to be able to deal with them and score at least once.