Caitlin Clark vs. Angel Reese for the 3rd Time in June

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Clark vs. Reese III
- MLB: Lefties face off in the Bronx
- News: Pitch clock wins

About six weeks into the WNBA season, we can be pretty sure that the Sun, Liberty and Lynx are good, the Aces will be better, and the Sparks, Wings and Mystics will have a tough season. It’s also clear that when Caitlin Clark is on TV, a lot more people are going to watch her Fever than any other matchup in the league that day.

Clark’s Fever take on Angel Reese’s Sky for the third time this month at 4pm ET on ESPN — a game that will set the WNBA record for ticket prices. According to FanDuel, the Sky are moneyline favorites (-132), Clark is -120 to score over 17.5 points (-108 to go under), and Reese to record more points and rebounds than Clark is -180 (Clark is +115 to beat Reese in that mark).

In today’s newsletter, Craig is covering Max Scherzer’s season debut for the Rangers and the Pirates success with rookie Paul Skenes on the mound.

Yankees vs. Braves under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
Day games after night games will often feature an extra bench player or two. But make no mistake, this play is about the two lefties. Nestor Cortes sports a 1.57 ERA and 0.81 WHIP at home while Max Fried faces a Yankees team that slugs .378 against lefties. Cortes’ last two starts resulted in the under, while three of Fried’s last four have remained under as well.

Max Fried over 17.5 outs (-122 at FanDuel)
The Yankees present a difficult matchup on the surface, but they’re less prolific against left-handers. Fried “only” needs to complete six frames to clear the number in this spot — he’s completed at least seven innings in five of eight. Fried may not be a strikeout artist, but he misses enough bats and keeps the ball on the ground with a frequency that will afford him the luxury of pitching carefully to Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.

Pirates -0.5 first 5 innings (-130 at DraftKings)
The Pirates are 6-1 in Paul Skenes’ starts this season and they’re 11-8 overall in June. Skenes has completed at least six innings in five of his last six starts, and he’s yet to allow more than three earned runs in any turn. The Rays are calling on Aaron Civale, who has not completed six innings since April 16, and he carries a 6.58 ERA and 1.59 WHIP since that start.

Max Scherzer under 5.5 strikeouts (-140 at DraftKings)
Max Scherzer is making his 2024 debut for the Rangers following back surgery. We’re not necessarily doubting Scherzer’s ability, though it’s reasonable to have questions about what’s in the tank in this particular spot. We are, however, expecting a reasonably short outing after he tossed a total of 8.2 innings over his last two rehab starts. The Royals are stingy in the strikeout department as well with a 19.8% K-rate in June.

Padres -0.5 first 5 innings (-102 at FanDuel)
Michael King takes the hill for the Padres with a 2.44 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his last 51.2 innings. Outside of two rough outings at home, he has pitched well at Petco Park, including his last 15 frames in which he allowed three runs. The Brewers are 10-10 in June, 2-4 on their current road trip, and average a modest 3.8 runs per game this month.

Mariners -1.5 (-102 at DraftKings)
The Mariners and Marlins are on opposite ends of the spectrum this season, but especially in June. Seattle is 13-7 and allowing 3.5 runs per game while Miami is 5-13 and scoring 2.7 runs. The Mariners are far less dominant on the road, but we’d be more concerned if the Marlins protected their home field — they’re 15-27 overall at LoanDepot Park and 4-8 across their last 12 in Miami.

Mets vs. Cubs under 8 runs (-122 at FanDuel)
The Mets and Cubs traded blowout wins over the first two games of this series, so both will have the opportunity to claim the series on Sunday Night Baseball. The Mets are sending their best starter in Luis Severino, while Javier Assad has a 1.69 ERA at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have played to the under in 11 of 14. The Mets, for their part, have stayed under in eight of their last 13.