Ozuna on Fire, Flaherty's Road Pitching Success

In today’s newsletter…

We’re two days away from the Olympics Opening Ceremony, eight days from the first NFL preseason game, and a month from the start of college football season and the Premier League. The July sports calendar is the sparsest of the year, but it feels like that helps get us ready for what’s to come.

Last year the American Gaming Association predicted that 73.5 million people in the United States — or 28% of the adult population — would bet on the NFL. With two more states legalizing sports betting this year (North Carolina and Vermont), expect that number to go up.

Marcell Ozuna over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs — Game 1 (-115 at DraftKings)
Marcell Ozuna came out of the gates on fire to start the second half of the season. The Braves slugger is batting .500 with two home runs and a 1.492 OPS in four games since the All-Star break. This is a solid matchup against Reds starter Frankie Montas, who’s given up 14 earned runs and a whopping six homers over his last three starts. Ozuna has gone over this line in nine of his last 10 games. 

Chris Sale over 7.5 Ks (-134 at FanDuel)
Chris Sale has gone over this line in 10 of his last 13 starts and four of his last five. The only time he didn't in that span came against a Padres lineup that has the lowest strikeout rate in MLB against lefties this season. The Reds, on the other hand, have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against lefties this month (29.9%), and Sale has a career 39.1% K rate against current Reds hitters.

Mitchell Parker under 3.5 Ks (-112 at FanDuel)
Death, taxes and fading left-handed pitchers against the Padres. Since the start of July, San Diego is batting .297 with a .362 wOBA and a 141 wRC+ against lefties. The Padres also have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the league against southpaws this month (18.5%). Mitchell Parker ranks only in the 24th percentile in whiff rate and the 32nd percentile in strikeout rate this season, and this isn’t the right matchup to turn those numbers around. 

Edward Cabrera under 14.5 outs recorded (+125 at DraftKings)
This is a peculiar line considering Edward Cabrera has failed to record 15 outs in six straight starts. The Marlins right-hander has given up at least four earned runs in four of those six starts, and he now ranks in the fifth percentile in xERA (5.47) and the first percentile in barrel rate (13.6 percent). Cabrera will have to be lights out against a loaded Orioles lineup to clear this line, and he hasn’t shown he’s capable of that yet this season. 

Cubs vs. Brewers under 7.5 runs (-115 at FanDuel)
Windy conditions at Wrigley Field typically affect games more than they do at other venues around MLB, and the wind is projected to blow straight in on Wednesday afternoon. Current Brewers hitters are batting just .250 with a .293 xwOBA in 122 plate appearances against Justin Steele, while the Cubs are batting a measly .191 with a .530 OPS and a 56 wRC+ since the All-Star break. 

Mike Siani + Rafael Devers to record a hit parlay (-109 at FanDuel)
It’s been a cold start to the second half for most of the Cardinals, but not Mike Siani. The center fielder is batting .385 since the All-Star break, and Pirates starter Martin Perez ranks in the second percentile in xBA (.297). Devers is also staring down a friendly matchup against Rockies starter Cal Quantrill, who’s surrendered at least five hits in five of his last six starts and ranks in the 23rd percentile in xBA (.265).

Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+380 at DraftKings)
Teoscar Hernandez is riding the momentum of his Home Run Derby victory to a hot start in the second half of the season. The Dodgers slugger is batting .421 and slugging .789 with two home runs since the All-Star break. He also leads the team in home runs (nine) and slugging percentage (.616) against left-handed pitching this year, and Giants lefty Robbie Ray is making his first start of the season. 

Jasmine Paolini to win Gold: Women's Tennis (+2400 at FanDuel)
Jasmine Paolini is experiencing a renaissance in 2024. The 5'3" Italian is battle-tested and owns as much momentum as any women's player in the world, evidenced by her participation in the last two Grand Slam Finals (French Open and Wimbledon) over the last two months. Although she fell short in both instances, it certainly feels like she's getting closer (she pushed Barbora Krejcikova to three sets at Wimbledon and the final set went 10 games). The Olympics tends to present more opportunity to underdogs, since it's an atypical environment and an atmosphere no player is adapted to. Paolini's resilience and grit might mean she gets the ultimate payoff on the world's biggest stage.

Emma Navarro to win Gold: Women's Tennis (+9500 at DraftKings)
Taking a shot on numerous players isn't a bad idea at an event as unpredictable as the Olympics, especially if you're betting on a grinder like Emma Navarro. The American reminded tennis audiences of her prowess at Wimbledon, making it to the quarterfinals and upsetting big names like Naomi Osaka, Diana Schnaider and Coco Gauff along the way. That sort of elite form means she could win a grand slam championship at any point, and we love her momentum entering Paris. For the price, Navarro is a dark-horse darling.

Canada to win Gold: Men's Basketball (+1100 at DraftKings)
Besides Team USA, no men's basketball program has more NBA players (10 — the most ever on a non-USA team) on its roster than Team Canada: RJ Barrett, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Andrew Nembhard, and others. And of course their enforcer: Dillon Brooks. Although America's outfit already beat Canada in an exhibition game two weeks ago, we like that for the underdogs. It's an advantage that Canada has played their rival once already, and superstars like SGA (an MVP contender in 2024) are capable of taking over a game and putting pressure on LeBron and his colleagues. This is a great price, especially considering how volatile Team USA has looked thus far.

France to win Gold: Men's Basketball (+1500 at FanDuel)
This is a lovely price for a team that has arguably the biggest (no pun intended) difference-maker on their roster, Victor Wembanyama. As Chris Paul revealed in an interview after last season, no single NBA player was talked about more in team locker rooms than Wembanyama, the French phenom who only got more dominant as his rookie season went on (21.4 points, 10.6 rebs, 3.6 blocks per game). Complemented with other NBA cogs like Nicholas Batum and Bilal Coulibaly, Team France will provide a formidable defensive test for any opponent, and Wembanyama's potential breakout means this roster could catch Team USA and others by surprise.

White Sox vs. Rangers under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-114 at FanDuel)
The White Sox’s 54 runs scored since July 1 ranks second to last in MLB. The Rangers haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard either, averaging 4.2 runs per game over that span. We’re also looking at a quietly solid pitching matchup between Chris Flexen and Nathan Eovaldi. Both were roughed up in their most recent outings, but had been pitching well — or at least respectably — leading into that most recent turn.

Athletics +0.5 first 5 innings (-115 at FanDuel)
The Athletics are averaging 7.2 runs per game since July 1. Their work is cut out for them against red-hot Astros right-hander Hunter Brown, who has earned a game score of 60 or better in eight of his last 11 starts. Athletics lefty JP Sears, meanwhile, has a 2.42 ERA and 1.07 ERA over his last four starts (22.1 innings). The combination of Sears’ form and the hot Athletics bats should keep this contest competitive early.

Mets vs. Yankees under 8.5 runs (-108 at DraftKings)
Yankees ace Gerrit Cole appears as if he’s rounding into form after delivering two starts of six innings and one earned run. Look for him to pitch much better against the Mets than he fared on June 25 in his second start of the season. It takes two to tango as they say, and the Yankees’ struggles against lefties suggests the Mets’ Sean Manaea will be able to keep the Bombers’ bats quiet, leading to a low-scoring affair.

Sean Manaea over 2.5 walks allowed (-120 at DraftKings)
Manaea is no stranger to allowing free passes. His 9.7% walk rate is the highest of his career and he walked five Yankees on June 26 in a 12-2 win. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza made it clear in Tuesday’s win over the Yankees that he doesn’t have any issue pitching around Aaron Judge, and we’re banking on this approach helping push Manaea to the over in this spot. 

D-backs vs. Royals under 9 runs (-105 at Caesars)
Royals right-hander Michael Wacha has pitched particularly well at home this season, producing a 2.96 ERA across 45.2 innings at Kauffman Stadium. Diamondbacks righty Ryne Nelson is in nice form as well, pitching to a 2.22 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and .195 BAA across his last four starts. Not to mention, he’s pitching better on the road this season with a 3.58 ERA — compared to 6.21 at Chase Field.

Angels vs. Mariners under 7 runs (+100 at DraftKings)
The Mariners and Angels rank in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored since July 1. Making matters even worse for the host Mariners against right-hander Griffin Canning is the absence of Julio Rodriguez. Canning owns an 8.00 ERA over his last four starts, but this is a spot for him to get back on track. Mariners starter Luis Castillo owns a 3.07 ERA at home and has been sharp across his last three starts.

Tigers +0.5 first 5 innings (-122 at FanDuel)
Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty is pitching better on the road (2.84 ERA, .201 BAA) and is only one start removed from limiting the Guardians to one run on two hits across six innings. We don’t necessarily need another gem from him though. The Tigers bats are hot — 5.5 runs/game since July 1 — and they’ve tagged Guardians starter Tanner Bibee to the tune of eight earned runs across 11 innings this season.

ATP Atlanta Open: Mattia Bellucci vs. Adrian Mannarino — Both Players Win a Set (+114 at FanDuel)
Mattia Bellucci goes into Atlanta with some momentum. At Wimbledon he dominated the qualifiers (losing just 2 sets in three matches), and then took Ben Shelton to a raucous 5-set barnburner, nearly beating the American phenom in the final set (Shelton won 6-4). On hard courts, Bellucci has won 83.3% of her service games over the last 12 months, a very impressive mark. Adrian Mannarino is the higher ranked player but he's the underdog for a reason, stumbling into Atlanta after losing 11 of his last 12 matches — but the good news is his serve is also lethal on hard courts (76.6% win rate). Expect a back and forth war from two evenly matched big-hitters.

ATP Atlanta Open: Francis Tiafoe vs. Aslan Karatsev — Tiafoe wins 2-0 (+115 at FanDuel)
The injury bug struck Aslan Karatsev earlier this season, preventing him from finding his form in most tournaments and greatly blocking any opportunities to build momentum heading into Atlanta. Home favorite Francis Tiafioe has had a disappointing 2024; his last legitimate run was all the way back in April at the Houston Open, where he battled and lost to fellow American Ben Shelton. Still, with a partisan crowd behind him this is a chance at redemption for the hyper-athletic Tiafoe, who should be able to use his physicality to overwhelm a rusty Karatsev.