Oilers Have Momentum as They Look to Reverse Sweep Panthers

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Welcome to MWF Sportmoney
- NHL: Stanley Cup Game 7
- AL: Royals have advantage with Ragans
- NL: Spencer Steer is crushing lefties
- And more: Grass court WTA + NY Liberty
- News: Pulisic propels USMNT

Welcome to the free, three-days-per-week edition of Sportmoney. Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Craig will cover American League homes games, Jack has National League home games, and Chris is tracking whatever sports are most interesting on a given day. As we get closer to football season, we’ll add in NFL and college football coverage as well. Hope you enjoy!

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final, where the Oilers have come all the way back from an 0-3 hole. In MLB, Craig sees an opportunity for a low-scoring game when the Angels and Athletics face off, and is counting on another quality start from White Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet. And in more baseball (you get double MLB coverage through August!), Jack is tracking Heliot Ramos to get over his mini-slump and Rangers pitcher Michael Lorenzen to get over 16.5 outs for the 11th time in 13 starts. And finally, Chris is has an assortment of tennis and WNBA opportunities for today and tomorrow.

Oilers moneyline (-104 at BetOnline)
Momentum is a powerful thing. Momentum built by overcoming adversity is an incredibly powerful thing. Edmonton overcame all odds and won 3 games in a row, anchored by the stellar play of Connor McDavid. Sure, they were at home for 2 of those games and their offense will need to be first class on the road Monday night, but their defense has allowed just 5 goals in their last 3 wins. The feeling in their locker room has to feel cosmic, compared to the supreme disappointment the Panthers must be feeling — conceivably with the Stanley Cup inches from their grasp just 10 days ago. It's the Oilers or nothing.

Oilers vs. Panthers over 5.5 goals (+130 at DraftKings)
Edmonton's defense has been incredible early in each of the last three games, permitting just one goal in Game 4 and completely shutting down Florida in every first period since. Edmonton, on the other hand, has scored 1 goal in the first period in each of their last 3 games, capitalizing off high energy right from the opening puck-drop. But now the Panthers are now back at home, and while the nerves of a Game 7 can be damning to any points on the scoreboard, we've seen the floodgates open once one side scores since Game 3. Totals from Games 3-6 average 7.5 goals, and we don't see tonight being any different.

Guardians moneyline (+105 at DraftKings)
The Guardians are ranked No. 8 in OPS vs. lefties and are riding a five-game win streak. They’ll face rookie lefty Cade Povich and counter with Tanner Bibee, who is limiting opponents to a .190 average across his last 41 frames, alongside a 33.7% strikeout rate and tidy 4.9% walk rate. He’ll need to be sharp to quiet this deep Orioles lineup, but he is catching them in the midst of a three-game slide.

Rays -0.5 first 5 innings (+124 at DraftKings)
The light-hitting Mariners are dominant at home on the strength of their pitching, but their road struggles have been evident on this current trip. They’ve lost four of six while combining to hit the over in five. Seattle starter Bryan Woo has been stellar this season, and his only blemishes have come on the road. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s Taj Bradley has a 1.50 ERA, .200 OBA, and 1.00 WHIP over his last 18 innings.

Tigers vs. Phillies under 2.5 runs first 3 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
The Tigers are struggling mightily with the bats in recent contests. They’ve lost five of seven, averaging 2.4 runs over that stretch. Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola has been in good form — his June 13 start against the Red Sox notwithstanding — and we anticipate a quality start to the evening from him. Detroit’s Casey Mize has favorable numbers at Comerica Park, including a 3.26 ERA, and we like him to combine for a low-scoring opening to tonight’s contest.

Royals -1.5 first 5 innings (+102 at FanDuel)
Cole Ragans has a 1.88 ERA and .190 OBA across his last seven starts. The Marlins are averaging 2.67 runs in June and have a .596 OPS against left-handed pitching. The Royals are significantly better at home, another factor that weighs heavily in this spot. Finally, with Roddery Munoz (11 HR, 14 walks in 29.2 innings) on the hill for the fish, the Royals have opportunities to score.

Blue Jays under 2.5 runs first 7 innings (+105 at DraftKings)
The Blue Jays made Tanner Houck labor a bit his last time out but only managed to score three runs against the Red Sox. And three runs is what they’re averaging across their current six-game skid. Houck has made a habit of working deep into games, completing at least six innings in five of his last six starts. Boston’s bullpen ranks No. 6 in ERA and No. 5 in WHIP in the event Houck can’t complete seven frames on his own.

Dodgers vs. White Sox under 5.5 run first 7 innings (+110 at DraftKings)
Garrett Crochet has recorded a quality start in eight of nine starts for the White Sox dating back to May. Crochet won’t have to contend with Mookie Betts; meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani is “only” an All-Star versus lefties (.871 OPS compared to 1.119 vs. RHP) and Freddie Freeman has a .224/.320/.364 line against southpaws. The White Sox hit better against left-handed pitching (.645 OPS), but they’re only averaging 3.7 runs per game in June.

Athletics vs. Angels under 8.5 runs (+100 at FanDuel)
Neither the Athletics nor the Angels can be relied upon for consistent offense, particularly in Anaheim, where the Angels score fewer runs and boast a worse record. And runs come at a premium for the Athletics no matter where they play. Luis Medina and Griffin Canning take the hill for the A’s and Angels, respectively. That doesn’t scream “pitcher’s duel,” but the under has cashed in Medina’s last four starts and in Canning’s last two starts against Oakland.

Spencer Steer 3+ total bases (+165 at DraftKings)
The total in Monday’s NL Central clash between the Pirates and Reds is set at 10, so oddsmakers are expecting some offensive fireworks. One hitter primed to contribute to those fireworks is Spencer Steer, who’s crushing left-handed pitching this month. Steer is batting .529 with a 1.461 OPS, three doubles and a home run in his last 19 at-bats against lefties. He’s also 5-8 (.625) in his career against Pirates starter Bailey Falter, so this is a golden matchup for the red-hot Steer. 

Michael Lorenzen over 16.5 outs recorded (-110 at DraftKings)
Michael Lorenzen has been a workhorse for the Rangers all season. The right-hander has gone over this line in 10 of his 12 starts this year because he pitches to contact and forces a ton of quick outs. Milwaukee also doesn’t have any past success in this matchup, as current Brewers hitters are batting just .067 with a .216 xwOBA and a 28.6% strikeout rate in 35 combined plate appearances against him. 

Spencer Schwellenbach under 1.5 walks (-125 at DraftKings)
Spencer Schwellenbach has gone over this line in three of his four starts this season, but this is a good spot for an under. The Braves starter likes to pound the zone, as he has a 52.7% in-zone rate and just a 7.5% walk rate this year. He’s also producing a whopping 39.8% chase rate, so he’ll be able to force cheap swings and misses on pitches out of the zone. As for the matchup, the Cardinals have the second-lowest walk rate against righties over the last two weeks (5.1%).

Matt Waldron to record a win (+105 at DraftKings)
The Padres are -218 to beat the Nationals, but this is a different way to back San Diego without paying all that juice. Matt Waldron has been brilliant for the Pads with two earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts. He’s throwing his knuckleball 38% of the time, and this is the first time Washington will see the unique pitch this season. Patrick Corbin has been better of late, but he still has the worst xERA (6.66) and xBA (.322) in MLB among qualified pitchers. 

Heliot Ramos over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+100 at DraftKings)
Heliot Ramos is going through a mini-slump, with just one base hit in his last 22 at-bats, but this is the perfect time to buy the dip on one of his hitting props. The Giants outfielder smashes left-handed pitching, as he’s batting .400 with five home runs, eight runs and 11 RBIs in 35 ABs against lefties this season. Cubs lefty Justin Steele has been stellar this month, but Ramos can clear this prop with one swing. 

Manny Machado and Austin Riley to record a hit parlay (-105 at FanDuel)
As we just mentioned, Corbin is one of the easiest pitchers to hit in all of baseball. Manny Machado is 7-21 (.333) against Corbin in his career, and he’s batting .346 with a .893 OPS against left-handed pitching this month. Austin Riley gets to face Lance Lynn, who loves to pound the zone and challenge hitters. Riley is 3-6 (.500) against Lynn in his career, and he’s recorded at least one hit in seven of his last nine games. 

Jurickson Profar to hit a home run (+830 at FanDuel)
We don’t mean to pile on Corbin, but he’s too easy of a target in this matchup. The lefty has already given up 12 home runs this season, and he ranks in the 11th percentile in barrel rate and the 4th percentile in average exit velocity. Oh, and Petco Park is the friendliest stadium in MLB to home runs this year. Jurickson Profar leads the Padres in home runs (five), batting average (.357) and slugging percentage (.571) against lefties this year, so it’s surprising to see his HR price this high. 

Tennis (Monday)
WTA Eastbourne: Barbora Krejcikova vs. Leylah Fernandez over 2.5 sets (+120 at FanDuel)
Barbora Krejcikova is a formidable competitor, ranked 31st in the WTA and in her conceivable prime at 28 years old. Leylah Fernandez, ranked 30th, is feisty and capable of beating any woman in the world, but lately her serve has been very inconsistent, perhaps a consequence of a new grass surface. Krejcikova is the exact opposite, suffering through almost constant losses through clay season but surging again on grass. Both women played well in Birmingham, making it to the quarterfinals, and their evenly matched nature presents all the ingredients for a long match.

WTA Bad Homburg: Elina Svtolina beats Caroline Woznacki 2-0 (+120 at FanDuel)
Last year Elina Svitolina showed her best form on grass, notably battling through Wimbledon while her country was at war — making her a fan favorite throughout the tournament. After an admirable run, she ended up losing in the semifinals to Marketa Vondrousova, although she did beat the world's #1, Iga Swiatek, along the way. Svitolina hasn't been as crisp in 2024 but she thrives on grass. Meanwhile, Caroline Wozniacki has barely competed since Indian Wells in March, losing 4 of 6 matches since. Oddsmakers are respecting her pedigree, but her current form suggests she'll be a quick out.

Tennis (Tuesday)
WTA Eastbourne: Xinyu Wang over Daria Kasatkina (+125 at DraftKings)
Once considered among the elite of the WTA, Daria Kasatkina hasn't looked the same in 2024. Since a quality run at the Abu Dhabi Open in February, Kasatkina hasn't seen much success, quickly ousted by every top-30 opponent she's faced the last few months. Her form and focus are simply puzzling compared to a few late tournament showings in 2023. Xinyu Wang is ranked 40th in the WTA and she's different on grass, exhibited in her dominant win over the formidable Aliaksandra Sasnovich and her hyper-competitive match versus Ons Jabeur in Berlin. Wang as an underdog isn't hard to get behind.

WNBA (Tuesday)
Minnesota vs. New York over 160.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
When we first saw the listed total for this game, we were dumbfounded. Sure, the Liberty only scored 67 points in their other matchup with the Lynx this season (a clear outlier), and we know that Minnesota is more well-known for their defense, but it’s a misnomer to assume this will be a lower-scoring game. New York leads the WNBA in pace over their last five games, and they’ve been on a scoring tear for 2 weeks straight — averaging a whopping 94 ppg in their last six contests. Minnesota is no slouch, either, averaging 84 ppg in their last 10. New York pushes Minnesota, and pushes this over.

New York -5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Since New York's two losses in a row in late May, one inexplicable fail against Chicago and one to Minnesota, the Liberty have been damn near flawless. Rated the #1 offense in the WNBA (and the 2nd place Aces aren't close), Sabrina Ionescu and her team have been beyond potent, scoring 90 or more in 8 of their last 11 contests. The Minnesota defense deserves credit for their tenacity and consistency so far this summer, but New York's 67 points on 38% shooting in their first matchup was an extreme outlier. At home seeking revenge, and with supreme momentum, is too good a recipe not to take.